The most likely CFB Playoff Chaos event

[Green Goblin 114]

Notre Dame wins out

Clemson wins out

Michigan wins out

...

 

Georgia stuns Alabama in the SEC title game

 

Now what?

 

I think Michigan needs to take a hike in this situation.

 

You cannot place Michigan above ND because ND beat Michigan and beat NW. Notre Dame is the real B1G champ.

 

I don't think you could put Michigan ahead of Alabama because Alabama has been more dominate than Michigan all season and Alabama has much better wins than Michigan and an equal defeat. So if they both finish with an equal record, I like Alabama getting the nod.

 

Michigan likes to champion the fact they have the best loss but Georgia could champion the fact they have the best win if they beat Alabama. Georgia would have the same record as Michigan, be the SEC champion, and have the better wins. Georgia over Michigan.

 

I don't see how you can put a one loss Michigan in over an undefeated and dominate Clemson. A Clemson team with wins over Texas A&M, Syracuse, South Carolina, Boston College, Pitt, Duke and NC State. Being undefeated and as dominate as they were has to be worth more than beating a garbage Wisconsin, one of the worst MSU teams of the decade, an overrated PSU with their star QB on a bum knee, and one of the worst OSU teams of the last 20 years. Oh and beating NW twice. Duke beat NW, by the way.

[Kid Gloves 150]

I agree with you. In this scenario Michigan would have to be left out. No way possible can they put Mich in ahead of ND. We own the two major components: overall record AND head to head. They would have no way to justify it.

[corysold 0]

I agree Michigan should be out, but at some point their criteria has to matter, and conference titles is part of the criteria. That should put Alabama on the outside of this example. I know it won’t, but it should.

[foreverirish34 11]

I agree Michigan should be out, but at some point their criteria has to matter, and conference titles is part of the criteria. That should put Alabama on the outside of this example. I know it won’t, but it should.

 

Well it didn’t matter last year when Alabama didn’t win their own division. So it better not matter this year if an undefeated ND team is there waiting in the wings.

[PJacksonsDred15 110]

Would it shock me if they took Michigan over ND? No, plenty of pundits are already talking about it and planting that seed. Michigan would have two more good wins on their tab, Ohio State and Northwestern (again). The head of the CFP said on live television that the head to head win over Michigan matters "as of today." That leaves the door open that it may not matter as much in the future.

 

The fact is ND is a black sheep in many crowds. Independent, no conference title game, Catholic, rich, and overrated for a good 25 years. Add the recent horrible loss to Bama in the title game. ND still has the "slow and unathletic" label, which it has carried for many years. A lot of people are looking for any way to get ND out of it and just don't trust ND in the big game. I honestly cant blame them.

 

But I dont think it matters because I dont think UGA beats Bama. If they do, do not be surprised if ND gets screwed. "They didnt play in a conference title game" would be easy answer for the CFP committee. It would royally hurt the ND brand if they went undefeated and didnt get in.

Edited November 12, 2018 by PJackson'sDred15

[ottawand 0]

Everybody should stop worrying about this, we win out we are in, case closed. Not only did we defeat Michigan, we also had the better showing against Northwestern which was the only common opponent.

[rocket31 0]

If they do' date=' do not be surprised if ND gets screwed. ']

 

about as stupid as your less than 24 points prediction vs FSU

[jbrown_9999 1,044]

Would it shock me if they took Michigan over ND? No, plenty of pundits are already talking about it and planting that seed. Michigan would have two more good wins on their tab, Ohio State and Northwestern (again). The head of the CFP said on live television that the head to head win over Michigan matters "as of today." That leaves the door open that it may not matter as much in the future.

 

The fact is ND is a black sheep in many crowds. Independent, no conference title game, Catholic, rich, and overrated for a good 25 years. Add the recent horrible loss to Bama in the title game. ND still has the "slow and unathletic" label, which it has carried for many years. A lot of people are looking for any way to get ND out of it and just don't trust ND in the big game. I honestly cant blame them.

 

But I dont think it matters because I dont think UGA beats Bama. If they do, do not be surprised if ND gets screwed. "They didnt play in a conference title game" would be easy answer for the CFP committee. It would royally hurt the ND brand if they went undefeated and didnt get in.

 

Last week, there were five pairs of teams who had the same record and who had played each other. In all five cases, the committee ranked the head-to-head winner in front of the other team even though in many cases the AP poll and other rating systems had the losers ahead of the winners.

 

As a result, I find it hard to believe that the committee would put an 12-1 Michigan ahead of a 12-0 Notre Dame. At this point, Syracuse and Ohio St would offset each other and ND has already beaten Northwestern. IU and Rutgers don't really count for anything.

[corysold 0]

Last week, there were five pairs of teams who had the same record and who had played each other. In all five cases, the committee ranked the head-to-head winner in front of the other team even though in many cases the AP poll and other rating systems had the losers ahead of the winners.

 

As a result, I find it hard to believe that the committee would put an 12-1 Michigan ahead of a 12-0 Notre Dame. At this point, Syracuse and Ohio St would offset each other and ND has already beaten Northwestern. IU and Rutgers don't really count for anything.

 

It's hard to believe, but as PJackson said, the committee chair was very clear in his words that the head to head mattered "as of today". That leaves a huge opening for not mattering down the road.

 

The thing is, ND doesn't matter in this whole thing. Leaving ND out doesn't affect anyone but ND. Leaving the Big 10 champ out for the 3rd straight year starts to affect what it means to be a conference champ at all. If Georgia wins and Alabama and ND make it, suddenly half your field is made up of teams who didn't win a conference title. If that matters to the committee, that is where I can see Michigan getting in and having to choose between Bama and ND. We all know who wins that argument.

Edited November 12, 2018 by corysold

[corysold 0]

about as stupid as your less than 24 points prediction vs FSU

 

He didn't predict less than 24 points. He asked for reasons that ND would get more than 24 based on Wimbush's recent performance. Two entirely different things.

[The eND 0]

I would just love to see Michigan lose to Ohio State

[PJacksonsDred15 110]

about as stupid as your less than 24 points prediction vs FSU

 

I was wrong. But I was simply pointing out the stats and the trends. Wimbush hadnt gone over 24 in 7 straight starts. I didnt make those numbers up. Vegas was also wrong on the points, though a little more optimistic than I was. (Over/Under closed at 49). A lot of posters brought up the variables to my question that I was not thinking about that made me feel better about it. (Like Dexter, weather, the fact that Wimbush hadnt completed all the games, etc).

 

In any event, as well as Wimbush played, he threw for 130 yards and had two really bad INTs. In most cases, that does not equal 42 points. But again, that shows you what kind of team we have this year which was pointed out by the other guys on the board. In the future, I guess I shouldnt look at the stats and point out any trend without fearing the retribution of Rocket 31, the hard *** who will call you stupid on his keyboard. ooooooh!

 

In any event, back to the point of this thread. I have no faith in the CFP Committee and think they would have no problem screwing Notre Dame. Maybe that is just me preparing for the worst, but who knows. I didnt like the "as of today" comment.

Edited November 12, 2018 by PJackson'sDred15

[OC-Irish 0]

I have no faith in the CFP Committee and think they would have no problem screwing Notre Dame. Maybe that is just me preparing for the worst' date=' but who knows. I didnt like the "as of today" comment.[/quote']

 

I don't have any faith either. There's too much leeway with style points, eye tests or whatever crappy criteria they dream up. I do think that if ND wins out, then ND will most likely be in the playoff. BUT, I'd say there's a 10% chance ND could be left out if something wild happens, like Georgia beating Alabama in the SEC Championship game. If that happens, the committee might be inclined to include both Alabama and Georgia (it's the SEC after all!). If Clemson remains undefeated, then they're in, especially given their consistency over the last several years and they'll be a conference champ. That leaves one spot left. Is this when the "ND doesn't play a conference championship game" argument wins over some committee members and convinces them to put in Michigan, Oklahoma or Washington State?

[WilhelmD 0]

That leaves one spot left. Is this when the "ND doesn't play a conference championship game" argument wins over some committee members and convinces them to put in Michigan, Oklahoma or Washington State?

 

I am only concerned about Meatchicken jumping us in this scenario. Oklahoma is in NO WAY a top 4 team - they give up more yards and points than Little Sisters of the Poor versus Alabama - Wazzu may well win the Pac12, but they still LOST to U$C (on a bogus call, sure, but . . .) as the thread points out, ND wins out - that means ND beat the team Wazzu lost to AND they also beat Stanford of the Pac12 . . . now, back to Meatchicken - their loss is to us and that should be the end of it - however, how may times in the past 20 years have you heard the old saw about forgiving an early loss . . . the pundits are all claiming that Meatchicken is a better team than when they lost (early in the season) to us (may very well be true) but SO ARE WE a better team than when we whipped their butts (with our "backup" or 1B QB instead of our 1A). Moreover, I can see a hue and cry to keep us out if we were to lose a game . . . but I fear that even an unblemished Irish team might be on the outside looking in at a Clemson / Meatchicken / Georgia / Alabama final four . . .

[Jersey Irish 205]

I agree Michigan should be out, but at some point their criteria has to matter, and conference titles is part of the criteria. That should put Alabama on the outside of this example. I know it won’t, but it should.

 

So is head-to-head results!

Gotcha skunkbear faithful!!

[hawaiiirish 62]

" the head to head matters as of today"

 

 

THAT ABSOLUTELY does NOT refer to or imply that an undefeated ND could in any possible way be left out,,,,

 

 

What that means is an ND loss to Syracuse or USC and Michigan winning the title game at 12-1 and YES we would likely get screwed....

 

 

Ground work is all there to squeeze a one loss ND out one way or another...

 

 

BUT AT 12-0 NO POWER ON EARTH SANS THE APOCALYPSE KEEPS US OUT!

 

 

We have to win out though

 

 

aloha

[coltssb 1,044]

ND is in if they win out....

 

But if your scenario does happen, then Alabama SHOULD be left out. I guess it depends on what the criteria the committee is going for.

1. Is it the the best four teams in the league?

2. OR Is it the most deserving?

 

Seems this is what I’ve heard from other pundits in the past. It makes me feel like it’s a way they are trying to keep putting two SEC teams in no matter what. It’s a cheap way to go.

[Kid Gloves 150]

2 things:

 

1. ND wins out and they are in. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

 

2. Georgia isn’t beating Bama. So all this is a moot point.

[IRISH812 0]

It's hard to believe, but as PJackson said, the committee chair was very clear in his words that the head to head mattered "as of today". That leaves a huge opening for not mattering down the road.

 

The thing is, ND doesn't matter in this whole thing. Leaving ND out doesn't affect anyone but ND. Leaving the Big 10 champ out for the 3rd straight year starts to affect what it means to be a conference champ at all. If Georgia wins and Alabama and ND make it, suddenly half your field is made up of teams who didn't win a conference title. If that matters to the committee, that is where I can see Michigan getting in and having to choose between Bama and ND. We all know who wins that argument.

 

Leaving ND in will be the choice that creates the least amount of chaos. It’s VERY easy to explain why an undefeated ND would get in over a 12-1 Michigan when ND beat them. You would have zero credibility if you put in Michigan. They had their chance against our back up QB and lost.

[SpeedsterX 653]

2 things:

 

1. ND wins out and they are in. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

 

2. Georgia isn’t beating Bama. So all this is a moot point.

 

Yea, and there's NO way Purdue would beat an Urban Meyer coached Ohio State. Anything can happen bro!