tneun89

FWIW, a couple of ND beat reporters have said they have not heard that it will dramatically impact the team (i.e., the frontline players). All the main guys were healthy as of a day or two ago, so hopefully if there has been some sort of outbreak, the team has taken the proper steps to ensure those guys stay healthy.

For those who don’t know, Devonta Smith was the starting nickel (they use “husky” in their defensive terminology) for Alabama last season. He played 421 snaps last season, and 323 of those snaps came covering the slot. He had 30 tackles, a FF, and 5 PBUs. Opponents completed 65.5% of their passes against him for 123 yards and 6.5 yards per attempt. As a recruit, he was a consensus 4-star (#154 on 247, #229 on Rivals, #133 on On3), with offers from Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, etc.

Absolutely need some film review here, as I focused mostly on stats. You have a better eye for watching the tape.

I think the second most important factor is Notre Dame’s pass defense. They got exposed a bit against Louisville (264 yards, 3TD) and USC (360 yards, 3 TDs). Indiana has a very good passing offense, as they rank 1st nationally in passing efficiency (179.08) and 29th in passing yards per game (265.2 yards/game). USC ranks 71st in passing efficiency and 10th in passing yards per game (291.7 yards/game), and Louisville ranks 26th in passing efficiency and 20th in passing yards per game (272.4 yards/game). So, Indiana is probably the best passing offense Notre Dame will have faced this year. And, unlike their rushing defense stats, Indiana’s passing stats don’t seem to be inflated because they have faced some really good passing defenses. However, in looking more closely at how Indiana fared against the best passing defenses they faced, they generally did not have a lot of success. The best passing defenses Indiana faced were Ohio State (4th nationally in passing efficiency defense), Washington (8th), FIU (18th), and Michigan (49th). Against those four teams, Indiana passed for 68 yards and 0 TDs (OSU), 124 yards and 1 TD (Washington, backup for IU played QB), 180 yards and 1 TD (FIU, first game of the season), and 206 yards and 2 TDs (Michigan). On defense, if Notre Dame can limit the explosive passing plays and get some pressure on their QB (O’Rourke), it should be a good day. They have 3 good WRs, but O’Rourke loves the quick passing game. Look for ND to play press man and try to limit those easy 5-7 yard routes. The key will be for Golden to get pressure on O’Rourke. He is not a running threat at all, so ND can get some sacks and force some throws in this game. Indiana has an average rushing attack (51st nationally in rushing at 173.6 yards/game). While rushing defense was/is ND’s weakness, they seem to have settled in during the back half of the season, as only two of the last six opponents rushed for more than their season average (USC and FSU). I think they can contain the IU running game, so the key on defense is to make O’Rourke uncomfortable in the pocket and let the secondary make some big plays. ND has the 3rd ranked scoring defense. Against OSU (1st nationally), IU scored 15 points. The next best scoring defenses IU faced were Nebraska (18th), Michigan (24th), and Washington (46th). Indiana did well against Nebraska (56 points) and Washington (31 points), while they scored 20 against Michigan. I think ND can keep IU in the high teens/low 20s. Notre Dame is tied for 1st nationally in turnovers gained with 28. If they can get O’Rourke to make some mistakes, Notre Dame can win this game by 10+ points.

I figured Indiana deserves its own thread as we start to look at them a little more closely. First, in my opinion, the key to the game is whether ND can run the ball. Indiana ranks 1st nationally in rushing defense, allowing only 70.8 yards/game and 2.46 yards/carry. That said, ND will be a big step up in competition. The best rushing offense Indiana faced all year was Ohio State. Ohio State is only ranked 59th nationally in rushing offense (169.2 yards/game). They ran for 115 yards against Indiana. After that, the next best rushing offense Indiana faced was Michigan at 69th, then 93rd (Washington), 95th (Nebraska), 104th (FIU), 110th (Michigan State and Purdue), 117th (Maryland), 122nd (Northwestern), and 130th (UCLA). So, Notre Dame is a major, major step up in competition, as ND ranks 10th nationally at 224.8 rushing yards/game. Of the teams ND has faced, the best rushing defense was Army (11th nationally, 104.0 yards/game). Like Indiana, that stat is probably inflated due to Army’s poor schedule. After Army, NIU is 20th (111.8 yards allowed/game), followed by Georgia Tech (30th, 120.2 yards allowed/game), Louisville (42nd, 135.4 yards allowed/game), and Texas A&M (49th, 137.7 yards allowed/game). So, while ND hasn’t exactly faced a murderers row, they’ve still played five defenses with Top 50 rush defenses. In those five games, ND rushed for more yards than the opposing defense’s average, with the exception of Louisville (ND only rushed for 117 yards). The others were 198 yards against A&M, 123 yards against NIU, 168 yards against Georgia Tech, and 275 yards against Army. USC has the 54th best rushing defense (140.4 yards/game), and ND rushed for 258 yards. On offense, if Notre Dame can run the ball against Indiana, I think the offense can legitimately score 30+ points. Again, the secondary is suspect, so getting IU to be overly aggressive against the run will open up the passing game. ND’s WRs need to limit their drops, and Leonard needs to be on target and on time. Weather could be a factor.

On the seeding… It’s hard to get too worked up about the #7 seed. I had high hopes ND would end up at #5 if Texas won and Oregon destroyed Penn State. But neither happened, so I think it’s fair for the Committee to keep ND below the P2 CCG teams. ND should have been ranked higher than PSU after the USC game, but when ND didn’t move up last Tuesday, it was clear that PSU needed to lose convincingly to Oregon. They didn’t, so credit to them - they showed a lot more on offense than I have seen from that team in a long time. I think the Committee wanted to make one thing clear: don’t punish teams for losing their CCG. SMU stayed in the field. Texas and PSU stayed ahead of ND. Right or wrong, that’s the message they sent. On the bracket… I did not expect to feel this way, but not getting the #5 seed actually isn’t that bad. Yes, Texas gets Clemson at home, then Arizona State in the Quarterfinals, but then it’s likely either Oregon or Ohio State. ND gets IU at home, Georgia in the Quarters, and potentially Penn State or Boise State in the Semis. That is a very reasonable path. Georgia will be a tough test, and I’d put the chances of ND winning at less than 50%, but this is not 2021 or 2022 Georgia. Their front seven is good (they handled the Texas OL, which is very highly regarded) in both games with 12 sacks. ND’s OL will have their work cut out for them. But ND’s defense will keep them in the game, as I don’t think this Georgia offense, especially with a backup QB, is that explosive. If ND plays Georgia, I’d expect a 17-14, 20-17 type of game. On Indiana… I would rather be Penn State and get SMU in South Bend, but I don’t hate the matchup. Indiana is a very good team, and I don’t think they’re getting a ton of credit due to their schedule (sounds familiar). They have a very good QB, some good WRs, and their front seven is also very good. But there are holes. For as good as Cignetti has been in his first year, remember that this is a team made up of mostly 3-stars and lower level transfers. He’s a great football coach, but ND has a big talent advantage. If ND can run the ball, that opens things up in the passing game. Indiana’s secondary is very suspect, so Leonard needs to be on point. O’Rourke is a good QB for them, but he did not do well when pressured against Ohio State and Michigan. Indiana’s OL is susceptible to giving up pressure - they lost one of their starters a few games back, and the replacement has struggled. ND will likely have to blitz a lot to get some pressure on him, so the secondary needs to learn from Louisville and USC and play better. Very confident in Gray bouncing back and Moore continuing to look like a future first round draft pick. As per usual with Al Golden, ND will play in man coverage almost exclusively. This game is tricky because I think Indiana will be ready, and I think they’re going to be a tough out. But Freeman always has his team ready to play in the big games, whether Clemson in 2022, Ohio State in 2023, or Texas A&M in 2024. I don’t see ND losing this game at home.

On3 Consensus: 3-star, #396 overall, #37 IOL 247: 3-star, #47 IOL Rivals: 3-star On3: 3-star, #25 IOL Offers: Cincinnati, Indiana, Kansas, Purdue, Washington

On3 Consensus: 4-star, #77 overall, #4 LB 247: 4-star, #80 overall, #3 LB Rivals: 4-star, #53 overall, #4 LB On3: 4-star, #136 overall, #15 LB Offers: Alabama, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington

This is a shocker. One of the biggest NSD surprises (for the better) in a while. Wow.

On3 Consensus: 4-star, #247 overall, #17 CB 247: 3-star, #38 CB Rivals: 4-star, #90 overall, #7 CB On3: 4-star, #241 overall, #18 CB Offers: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Some are reporting that ND might only take one more WR, so it’s either him or Meadows, and ND is obviously very high on Meadows. SO, Parham doesn’t have the green light to flip. I disagree completely and think they should take both because current WRs on the roster will transfer out after this season, but that’s what’s being reported.

I agree on both. Zachary also fell in 247’s most recent update from Top 100 to #175. By all accounts, he’s having a great season, so not sure why he’s dropping. Rivals is the lowest on Blair as he’s #54 overall on On3 and #154 overall on 247. I should have also included James Flanigan above. He’s having a monster year, and he’s #107 (On3) and #105 (247). Rivals is the lowest on him as well.

ND is currently ranked 10th overall in the team rankings. I would expect ND to drop slightly, as is customary with many higher ranked kids making decisions at all star games or on signing day. ND has 3 Top 100 commits, with a fourth (Faraimo) likely to join, which would give ND 4 Top 100 commits. This is lower than last cycle (5), but the next highest in the previous five cycles: 5 (2024), 3 (2023), 4 (2022), 3 (2021), 3 (2020). ND currently only has 6 Top 250 commits. This would be the lowest in the last five cycles: 11 (2024), 11 (2023), 13 (2022), 8 (2021), 9 (2020). I think ND will end up with 8 because I think Faraimo and Meadows will end up in the class. But still, 8 Top 250 recruits would be tied for the lowest in the last five cycles. ND has 23 commits, but assuming Faraimo and Meadows commit, that is 8 Top 250 players in a class of 25, which means only 32% of the class is in the Top 250. This would be be lowest percentage in the four of the last five cycles: 47.8% (2024), 47.8% (2023), 56.5% (2022), 29.6% (2021), and 52.9% (2020). Overall, I like this class, but it is definitely not up to par with previous Freeman classes. There were several high profile misses at QB (obviously) and WR. I think ND really messed up RB recruiting, as they took two lower ranked guys early who have both been processed out. I really like the OL class. I think the DL class leaves a lot to be desired, but I think Burgess has really flown under the radar as a difference maker. But I don’t really like most of the other DL commits. I think ND is more than fine at LB, as long as Faraimo commits as expected. That room is absolutely loaded going into next season. I think the DB class is awesome. All praise to Mickens. My most underrated guys in this class: Elijah Burress (WR, 3-star), Brandon Logan (S, 3-star), Jadon Blair (S, 4-star, outside of Top 250), and Mark Zachary (CB, 4-star, outside of Top 250). I think all four of these guys are Top 250 players.

ND Commits Will Black (OT): 5-star, #19 overall Chris Burgess (SDE): 4-star, #45 overall Dallas Golden (CB): 4-star, #66 overall Anthony Sacca (OLB): 4-star, #102 overall Owen Strebig (OT): 4-star, #105 overall Matty Augustine (OT): 4-star, #243 overall ND Targets Madden Faraimo (OLB): 4-star, #53 overall (uncommitted) Derek Meadows (WR): 4-star, #107 overall (LSU commit) Andrew Olesh (TE): 4-star, #163 overall (Michigan commit)

Jeter has been sidelined with a groin injury for the last month or so. Since Louisville, he’s only tried two field goals (went 1-2 last week against FSU). He has been the guy on extra points, which is encouraging. My guess is that ND is slowly working him back because he has not really been needed with ND blowing every team out the last five games. He will be needed come the Playoffs. ND has three starting kickers in the NFL right now (Aubrey, Grupe, Schrader), which I’m guessing is more than any other school - although, Aubrey was a soccer guy and the other two were grad transfers. ND will continue going the grad transfer route as it’s worked out well the last few seasons.