2024 Roster Math

[JeffV 324]

Bye week boredom, so this in an early start to a favorite off-season topic.  As Senior Day approaches vs Wake Forest next week, I read an article that got me thinking about who ND might return next season. 

Irish Sports Daily - Returning Players in 2024

1. Senior Day next game vs. Wake Forest.  Will be interesting who walks.  The Covid year is still in play for this Senior class, and the 85 scholarships is a hard limit.  Transfer portal drop/add is a factor.
2. 7 players out of eligibility:  Hartman, Salerno, Jean-Baptiste, DJ Brown, Harper, Vinson, Schrader.  Farewell to them.
3. Seniors/Grads with a Covid year of eligibility remaining:  Cross, Hart, Kiser, Bertrand, Lifau, Nana, Correll, Kristofic, Ford, Carter.  Who's leaving??
4. Alt leaving for the NFL. 23 commits in the '24 class, plus 76 potential returners puts us at 99 scholarships, approximately (also, Kahuna Kia returning from 2-year mission)

I know there's always some natural attrition, but it seems like this gets crazier every year.  My best guess is we're heading for roster cuts before and after spring ball.  If a bunch of vets stick around it gets really ugly.  How do we get there this time?

 

[NDhoosier 1,226]

I will say that 99 at this point seems much higher than previous years.

It will be very interesting to see who comes back from the LB corp. Defense as a whole as a lot of starters that are able to return, but will they.

[JeffV 324]

The LB room would be absurd.  Particularly when Viliamu-Asa is starting ahead of Butkus Finalist, Marist Liufau.  And Drayk Bowen ahead of Bertrand.

I think Alt, Hart, Cross, and Correll leave.  Hard to say on the others.  I hope Watts stays another year.

[Synoptico 333]

Call me crazy, but does Salerno have another year as a medical redshirt from this year?

[JeffV 324]

4 minutes ago, Synoptico said:

Call me crazy, but does Salerno have another year as a medical redshirt from this year?

Holy....!  I bet that's right.  He'd have to apply, though.  They couldn't let him do it again, could they?

Edited November 9, 2023 by JeffV

[NDhoosier 1,226]

I dont want him to, but I think Watts may leave.

1) His value is extremely high right now and he may feel like jumping on the current hype bandwagon around him
2) I have heard that his family is not very well off and he wanted to help support them as soon as possible.

I think he could return and if he has another great year in 2024, his stock would only rise. Watts is a big mystery in my opinion.

Matt Salerno is currently on his 6th year, he would have to petition the NCAA for a 7th year of eligibility

[Synoptico 333]

45 minutes ago, NDhoosier said:

I dont want him to, but I think Watts may leave.

1) His value is extremely high right now and he may feel like jumping on the current hype bandwagon around him
2) I have heard that his family is not very well off and he wanted to help support them as soon as possible.

I think he could return and if he has another great year in 2024, his stock would only rise. Watts is a big mystery in my opinion.

Matt Salerno is currently on his 6th year, he would have to petition the NCAA for a 7th year of eligibility

That can happen in college now too. In some cases, for late round picks, potentially moreso

[jessemoore97 1,271]

If memory serves we were staring down similar numbers last season.  Everything will sort itself out before next season, no worries.

Watts will elect to go pro, he'll have his degree, and he has played himself into scouts minds.  He has nothing to prove.  Bertrand would be a late pick at best, probably UFA, and could he really improve his stock with a other year?  

As for the hold overs, I have no idea who stays or goes.  There is a lot of upcoming talent at some positions that's going to be hard to keep off the field.  It's going to be a interesting spring for sure.

[JeffV 324]

True.  It's harder this year b/c you'd have to welcome most of the option year guys back, IMO.  We'll get some outgoing transfers for sure - leaving for playing time.

Alt, Hart, Estime, Cross and maybe Tyree & Bertrand to the draft?

Biggest questions to me are:  Fisher, Tyree, Cross, LBs, Watts.  Fisher will get a decent draft grade.  Watts is getting noticed, has upside.

We're going to be young, especially on defense, no matter what happens.  I expect it's going to be every bit as crazy as last off-season.  Coaching changes are a wrinkle, too.

[Wharton70 89]

based on the last 3 or so games, it's time for Fisher to move on.

[JeffV 324]

Maybe 5 returning starters on offense. and 4 on defense.   Super dicey.  Depending on QB play, could be a rough year.  Schedule lets up some, though.

[jimbo 376]

Yes, for sure, it will be an interesting offseason for managing the roster. The coaching staff will probably look a little different also. 
 

I think players entering the transfer portal will put a significant dent in the overall number. I’m thinking guys like C Lewis (does he have any eligibility left?) and Carmody etc.

[Baldy 1,225]

5 hours ago, Wharton70 said:

based on the last 3 or so games, it's time for Fisher to move on.

Same goes for Correll, because he has been put on his a** too many times this season. What sucks is he still has two years of eligibility remaining. 🙄

[InLikeFlynn 261]

Estime is another question mark in my opinion.  I mean , the dude is ready and I think will be a good pro but is he going to declare?  That social media post makes me think he leans toward returning.  Something to the effect of "I will worry about the Doak award and a National title next year, right now have to keep working"

  I think it would do Tyree and ND very good for him to return.  he could be a dynamic WR but needs more time at that position.

[JeffV 324]

15 minutes ago, InLikeFlynn said:

Estime is another question mark in my opinion.  I mean , the dude is ready and I think will be a good pro but is he going to declare?  That social media post makes me think he leans toward returning.  Something to the effect of "I will worry about the Doak award and a National title next year, right now have to keep working"

  I think it would do Tyree and ND very good for him to return.  he could be a dynamic WR but needs more time at that position.

They would cut players to keep those 2 if they had to!

[InLikeFlynn 261]

2 minutes ago, JeffV said:

They would cut players to keep those 2 if they had to!

Amen to that

[InLikeFlynn 261]

I am interested in the LBers too.  i didnt realize JD could come back.   I really want to see what we have in the young LBers but if JD came back, I wouldnt hate that either.  

[tneun89 978]

There is going to be a ton of turnover. 

Grad seniors with eligibility left who will likely leave (4): Cross, Hart, Kiser, Bertrand

Seniors with eligibility left who I personally think will leave (7): Watts (NFL), Mills (NFL), Botelho (greener pastures), Lewis (greener pastures), Keanaaina (greener pastures), Carmody (Greener pastures), Bauman (medical retirement)

Grad seniors with eligibility left who I have no clue (4): Liafau, Nana, Correll, Kristofic (guessing one of Correll/Kristofic leave)

Grad Seniors with eligibility left who I think will stay: Carter, Ford

Juniors who will leave for the NFL (2): Alt, Estime

Juniors who I think will leave if they graduate this spring (2) : Barnes, Tucker, 

[JeffV 324]

Next year, luckily, no one on the team will be old enough to buy alcohol.

[Big23Head 2,249]

Sounds like Fisher is looking to move on. All three senior LBs as well. I think if any of them come back it’s Marist. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Big23Head