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3 Part Hypothesis on Gerad Parker's Offense


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Offense was great against bad teams.

Offense was solid against mediocre teams

Offense struggled against good/elite teams

By the 2/3rds rule. 2 of the first 3 statements are positive therefore parker kept his job with instructions to fix the 3rd or else.

 

What I liked

  • Parker's offense spread the ball around.
  • Parker's offense gave young playmakers a chance
  • Parker's offense was statistically productive

 

What I did not like

  • Too much playbook. He paired down Rees' but I think it was still too much.
  • Commitment to player rotation in big games. I get the other backs our the future but Estime had 1300 yards for a reason.
  • Analytical football. Running the ball on 3rd and 6 to get to 4 and 2 where the defense is just as likely to make it 4th and 4.

 

What say you? Does my hypothesis hold up?

 

 

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1 hour ago, FaithInIrish Forever said:

Offense was great against bad teams.

Offense was solid against mediocre teams

Offense struggled against good/elite teams

By the 2/3rds rule. 2 of the first 3 statements are positive therefore parker kept his job with instructions to fix the 3rd or else.

 

What I liked

  • Parker's offense spread the ball around.
  • Parker's offense gave young playmakers a chance
  • Parker's offense was statistically productive

 

What I did not like

  • Too much playbook. He paired down Rees' but I think it was still too much.
  • Commitment to player rotation in big games. I get the other backs our the future but Estime had 1300 yards for a reason.
  • Analytical football. Running the ball on 3rd and 6 to get to 4 and 2 where the defense is just as likely to make it 4th and 4.

 

What say you? Does my hypothesis hold up?

 

 

Fair and solid observations. For me, I thought play calling was very inconsistent from game to game. Play action seemed to unlock where Hartman was best, but it was spotty at best. Looking forward to getting some weapons at wr, but the tackle spots are going to be a question mark heading into next year, hard not to take a step back with Alt leaving.

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1 hour ago, mcgov12 said:

Fair and solid observations. For me, I thought play calling was very inconsistent from game to game. Play action seemed to unlock where Hartman was best, but it was spotty at best. Looking forward to getting some weapons at wr, but the tackle spots are going to be a question mark heading into next year, hard not to take a step back with Alt leaving.

We'll need to kind o fhave  inside running, Quicker passing team with some of the Buchner-esque deep shot RPOs most people despised. But if you do it like Norvell at FSU they work.

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5 hours ago, FaithInIrish Forever said:

Offense was great against bad teams.

Offense was solid against mediocre teams

Offense struggled against good/elite teams

By the 2/3rds rule. 2 of the first 3 statements are positive therefore parker kept his job with instructions to fix the 3rd or else.

 

What I liked

  • Parker's offense spread the ball around.
  • Parker's offense gave young playmakers a chance
  • Parker's offense was statistically productive

 

What I did not like

  • Too much playbook. He paired down Rees' but I think it was still too much.
  • Commitment to player rotation in big games. I get the other backs our the future but Estime had 1300 yards for a reason.
  • Analytical football. Running the ball on 3rd and 6 to get to 4 and 2 where the defense is just as likely to make it 4th and 4.

 

What say you? Does my hypothesis hold up?

 

 

Yes, your hypothesis does hold up and I would agree with it all.

What really ticked me off the most was the player rotation at RB. Like you said, too much at the wrong times, and in the biggest games! Just thinking about Estime only getting three carries in the second half against Clemson angers me!

Parker also liked to outthink himself a lot, which sunk him so many times! Not good at all!

4 hours ago, mcgov12 said:

Fair and solid observations. For me, I thought play calling was very inconsistent from game to game. Play action seemed to unlock where Hartman was best, but it was spotty at best. Looking forward to getting some weapons at wr, but the tackle spots are going to be a question mark heading into next year, hard not to take a step back with Alt leaving.

 Correct on Play Action. What was crazy is Parker started using it more the last two games, and lo and behold, Hartman did much better. 🙄

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Ok, I will be the bad guy. I disagree with how the offense performed. 

The offense was great against the bad teams, it struggled against teams with a pulse, and it was embarrassing against good+ teams.

The issues in my eyes was an unwillingness to stick with what was working or to avoid things that weren't working. I said it in other threads, but GP seemed like he was trying to get cute too often when being boring would have been the right call. He definitely cost ND the tO$U game and I believe he also cost ND the Clemson game. I forget the Louisville game, so I won't say that is his fault....but I am willing to bet he left some points on the board.

GP needs to understand that winning is what matters....not his offense putting up 50 points and having 600 yards combined. I was watching the scUM / PSU game, and there was a stretch where scUM had run the ball something like 16 straight times. Though it probably cost McCarthy the Heisman, scUM's willingness to stick with what was working is why they are a playoff team...GP would never let this team run it 15 straight times. That needs to change.

GP needs to do what every other quality coach does. Script your first 10 to 15 plays to see what is going to work, and then go for the jugular. It is fine to try to have a identity but you have to be able to take what is being given to you.

Another example....a long long time ago, ND was playing BYU and CW had knly called a couple of runs the entire first half. When asked at halftime if he was going to try to run the ball, his response was something like "as long as they are running that particular defense, we are going to throw the ball". I am sure he "wanted" to run it, but the defense ND was facing at the time was susceptible to the pass. GP needs that mindset.

 

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4 hours ago, IrishGuy said:

Ok, I will be the bad guy. I disagree with how the offense performed. 

The offense was great against the bad teams, it struggled against teams with a pulse, and it was embarrassing against good+ teams.

The issues in my eyes was an unwillingness to stick with what was working or to avoid things that weren't working. I said it in other threads, but GP seemed like he was trying to get cute too often when being boring would have been the right call. He definitely cost ND the tO$U game and I believe he also cost ND the Clemson game. I forget the Louisville game, so I won't say that is his fault....but I am willing to bet he left some points on the board.

GP needs to understand that winning is what matters....not his offense putting up 50 points and having 600 yards combined. I was watching the scUM / PSU game, and there was a stretch where scUM had run the ball something like 16 straight times. Though it probably cost McCarthy the Heisman, scUM's willingness to stick with what was working is why they are a playoff team...GP would never let this team run it 15 straight times. That needs to change.

GP needs to do what every other quality coach does. Script your first 10 to 15 plays to see what is going to work, and then go for the jugular. It is fine to try to have a identity but you have to be able to take what is being given to you.

Another example....a long long time ago, ND was playing BYU and CW had knly called a couple of runs the entire first half. When asked at halftime if he was going to try to run the ball, his response was something like "as long as they are running that particular defense, we are going to throw the ball". I am sure he "wanted" to run it, but the defense ND was facing at the time was susceptible to the pass. GP needs that mindset.

 

You are not a bad guy. This is a discussion. Everyone is encouraged to discuss.

 

Lets test this out.

image.png

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We are only really interested in the 3 losses and the close game because otherwise know Parker passes.

 

So Parkers grade cannot get any lower than 8/12

67 percent. Thats a D in most schools

I'm going to cfbstats.com and get the defensive ranks of the 4 teams where Parkers grade is in question.

 

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3 minutes ago, FaithInIrish Forever said:

We are only really interested in the 3 losses and the close game because otherwise know Parker passes.

 

So Parkers grade cannot get any lower than 8/12

67 percent. Thats a D in most schools

I'm going to cfbstats.com and get the defensive ranks of the 4 teams where Parkers grade is in question.

 

I see where you are going, but this is less about wins and losses and more about offensive production. The example I will use is USC. The offense didn't even need to be on the field that game and I just checked that stats....and they weren't.

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4 minutes ago, IrishGuy said:

I see where you are going, but this is less about wins and losses and more about offensive production. The example I will use is USC. The offense didn't even need to be on the field that game and I just checked that stats....and they weren't.

he barely passed my analysis. But we all know ND deserves more in year 2

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I can't get over Hartman's regression from Wake to ND.  

Even if a lot of that is on Hartman, I would then criticize the evaluation and decision to bring him in.

If this style of offense continues, I question NDs ability to continue to get commitments from top QB and WR recruits. 

I get that there was a lack of WRs this season but there were enough options when including TEs to have a more unpredictable offense.

In the end I think you can do worse than Parker but you can certainly do better.  I just don't view Parker as an OC that will help ND compete for a national championship.

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1 hour ago, 4thand1 said:

I can't get over Hartman's regression from Wake to ND.  

Even if a lot of that is on Hartman, I would then criticize the evaluation and decision to bring him in.

If this style of offense continues, I question NDs ability to continue to get commitments from top QB and WR recruits. 

I get that there was a lack of WRs this season but there were enough options when including TEs to have a more unpredictable offense.

In the end I think you can do worse than Parker but you can certainly do better.  I just don't view Parker as an OC that will help ND compete for a national championship.

image.png

 

These numbers don't support any regression. A plateau but no regression. We got who Sam was statistically.

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Hartman (sure as hell hope) was brought it to open up the passing game and allow the offense to be less predictable.  The numbers you posted are a regression from the standpoint that there were fewer attempts, yards and tds.  This year's ND offense was still way too predictable.  

Parker will not be the OC that gets ND to the point that they compete for championships.  

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On 12/10/2023 at 7:21 PM, 4thand1 said:

Hartman (sure as hell hope) was brought it to open up the passing game and allow the offense to be less predictable.  The numbers you posted are a regression from the standpoint that there were fewer attempts, yards and tds.  This year's ND offense was still way too predictable.  

Parker will not be the OC that gets ND to the point that they compete for championships.  

Wake Forest didn't have Audric Estime though either.

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Whether or not ND has a solid running game has nothing to do with it.  

NDs style of offense was ok to beat a lot of teams but not top 10 level teams.  Waaaay too predictable.

Do you think NDs passing offense would be a threat to any of the top 10 teams this year the way that Parker ran it?  I don't. 

When will ND not allow opponents to stack the box because they aren't afraid of the passing game.  For the record, I am for offensive diversity.  I want to keep my opponent guessing and call plays that take advantage of their formations.  I also want the OC to teach and allow the QBs to effectively call audibles.  Plenty of play action and RPOS that cause the D to never know what ND is going to do.  Maybe Parker isnt' capable of running an offense like that.

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1 hour ago, 4thand1 said:

Whether or not ND has a solid running game has nothing to do with it.  

NDs style of offense was ok to beat a lot of teams but not top 10 level teams.  Waaaay too predictable.

Do you think NDs passing offense would be a threat to any of the top 10 teams this year the way that Parker ran it?  I don't. 

When will ND not allow opponents to stack the box because they aren't afraid of the passing game.  For the record, I am for offensive diversity.  I want to keep my opponent guessing and call plays that take advantage of their formations.  I also want the OC to teach and allow the QBs to effectively call audibles.  Plenty of play action and RPOS that cause the D to never know what ND is going to do.  Maybe Parker isnt' capable of running an offense like that.

Notre Dame 2023 passing (No Bowl Game)  

image.png

 Notre Dame 2023 rushing (no bowl game_

image.png

 

Wake Forest 2022 passing(Bowl game added)

image.png

 

Wake 2022 rushing(Bowl game added)

image.png

 

The running has EVERYTHING to do  with it. ND runs less plays more efficiently than wake forest. Wake will have more yards and more TD's Why because they ran 978 TOTAL PLAYS (505+473 total plays). Wake gives up more points on defense? Because they run so many plays  ND wasn't going to run that many plays for ANYONE. 332+409 741 Why? Because ND wants their defense to be able to compete with the other team. 

978-741 =237 EXTRA PLAYS WAKE HAD TO RUN OR PASS LAST YEAR. You wonder why you like Hartman's yardage and TD numbers last year he had 90 more completions

How MANY of Estime's carries would you give up in order for Sam to complete 90 more balls?

Or would you rather the defense not be the 8th ranked scoring defense in the country?

 

Yes the running game and Notre Dame's commitment to a slower tempo means EVERYTHING NOT NOTHING

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Do you think NDs passing offense would be a threat to any of the top 10 teams this year the way that Parker ran it?  I don't. 

When will ND not allow opponents to stack the box because they aren't afraid of the passing game.  For the record, I am for offensive diversity.  I want to keep my opponent guessing and call plays that take advantage of their formations.  I also want the OC to teach and allow the QBs to effectively call audibles.  Plenty of play action and RPOS that cause the D to never know what ND is going to do.  Maybe Parker isnt' capable of running an offense like that.

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