ND's Blue Chip Ratio

[jbrown_9999 1,018]

Even without 5 stars, the Irish roster should be improved in future years

NOTRE DAME BLUE-CHIP RATIOS
2023: 19 of 24 recruits, 79.17 percent, No. 8 overall class, per rivals.com.
2022: 17 of 22, 77.27 percent, No. 6 overall class.
2021: 12 of 27, 44.44 percent, No. 9
2020: 10 of 17, 58.82 percent, No. 22
2019: 12 of 22, 54.55 percent, No. 14
2018: 12 of 27, 44.44 percent, No. 11
2017: 8 of 21, 38.0 percent, No. 13
2016: 13 of 23, 56.52 percent, No. 13
2015: 13 of 24, 54.17 percent, No. 11
2014: 11 of 23, 47.83 percent, No. 11
2013: 18 of 24, 75 percent, No. 3
2012: 9 of 17, 52.94 percent, No. 20
2011: 10 of 23, 43.48 percent, No. 10
2010: 10 of 23, 43.48 percent, No. 14
2009: 10 of 18, 55.56 percent, No. 21
2008: 19 of 23, 82.61 percent, No. 2
2007: 13 of 18, 72.22 percent, No. 8
2006: 12 of 28, 42.86 percent, No. 8

[ND_JACK 321]

Thanks. Interesting now Freeman has to keep positive trend in 2023 and not slide backwards like in 2009.

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

48 minutes ago, jbrown_9999 said:

Even without 5 stars, the Irish roster should be improved in future years

NOTRE DAME BLUE-CHIP RATIOS
2023: 19 of 24 recruits, 79.17 percent, No. 8 overall class, per rivals.com.
2022: 17 of 22, 77.27 percent, No. 6 overall class.
2021: 12 of 27, 44.44 percent, No. 9
2020: 10 of 17, 58.82 percent, No. 22
2019: 12 of 22, 54.55 percent, No. 14
2018: 12 of 27, 44.44 percent, No. 11
2017: 8 of 21, 38.0 percent, No. 13
2016: 13 of 23, 56.52 percent, No. 13
2015: 13 of 24, 54.17 percent, No. 11
2014: 11 of 23, 47.83 percent, No. 11
2013: 18 of 24, 75 percent, No. 3
2012: 9 of 17, 52.94 percent, No. 20
2011: 10 of 23, 43.48 percent, No. 10
2010: 10 of 23, 43.48 percent, No. 14
2009: 10 of 18, 55.56 percent, No. 21
2008: 19 of 23, 82.61 percent, No. 2
2007: 13 of 18, 72.22 percent, No. 8
2006: 12 of 28, 42.86 percent, No. 8

Do you have a link? 

Questions:

What is the definition of "blue chip"? Guessing just 4 and 5 stars. 

Also, if using Rivals ratings, 2022 should 18 of 24, And 75% (due to decommit)... if using the 4+5 stars. 

2021 should be 17 of 23, and 74%

Just trying to figure the logic

[Tailgate Approved 248]

48 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

What is the definition of "blue chip"? Guessing just 4 and 5 stars. 

That is correct. 

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Blue-Chip-ratio-2022-college-football-15-teams-who-can-win-the-national-championship--190039196/

[jbrown_9999 1,018]

1 hour ago, OKelleyIrish said:

Do you have a link? 

Questions:

What is the definition of "blue chip"? Guessing just 4 and 5 stars. 

Also, if using Rivals ratings, 2022 should 18 of 24, And 75% (due to decommit)... if using the 4+5 stars. 

2021 should be 17 of 23, and 74%

Just trying to figure the logic

Not sure where I found it to be honest. I think it might have been in comment section of an article. In any case, it should be "directionally relevant" even if not 100% exact.

[Tailgate Approved 248]

44 minutes ago, jbrown_9999 said:

Not sure where I found it to be honest. I think it might have been in comment section of an article. In any case, it should be "directionally relevant" even if not 100% exact.

I think this may have been your source:

https://irish.nbcsports.com/2022/12/23/things-we-learned-remove-recency-bias-and-notre-dames-recruiting-has-clearly-reached-new-heights/

[4thand1 271]

The 2023 recruiting results were very similar to 2022.  I do feel that the recruiting effort has improved though.  It's very early to make any determinations on Freeman's recruiting ability.  

It feels a little like NDs recruiting ceiling is capped close to where it's been.  ND annually has their 5 star/high 4 star recruits poached and they in turn don't do the same to other programs.  

Combine that with the fact that the likes of Ala, Ohio St, Georgia and now USC fills in any roster holes by getting the top transfer options yearly.  Maybe I can rationalize that breaking through to the level of the absolute best of college football requires better and more consistent on field results.  I have a tough time envisioning a path to ND closing the gap on the above schools mentioned outside of a 1 year exceptional outcome.  

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

I mentioned early, the last 3 years has been good. Good enough to compete for a CFP. Just lacking a QB that developed. 

Even 2020 was decent, but a super small class due to roster size. And Jordan jumped. 

And 2021 was criminally low on Alt, Evans, and Diggs. All 3 are, or will be studs IMO... And Morrison was a miss in ratings. Only a 90ish... 

21 and 22 are as good as 23, or even better. 

1 hour ago, Tailgate Approved said:

That is correct. 

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Blue-Chip-ratio-2022-college-football-15-teams-who-can-win-the-national-championship--190039196/

Thank you sir! 

They've cheapened things, and lowered the bar lol. They used to say 5 stars were true blue chips. I consider 5 stars still the early difference makers. 

1 hour ago, jbrown_9999 said:

Not sure where I found it to be honest. I think it might have been in comment section of an article. In any case, it should be "directionally relevant" even if not 100% exact.

Yup. They were off the %s if using Rivals. I googled and found similar articles from Rivals, 247, Athletic, etc.. 

From the 22 247 article, holy cow, Bama lol

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

5 minutes ago, 4thand1 said:

The 2023 recruiting results were very similar to 2022.  I do feel that the recruiting effort has improved though.  It's very early to make any determinations on Freeman's recruiting ability.  

It feels a little like NDs recruiting ceiling is capped close to where it's been.  ND annually has their 5 star/high 4 star recruits poached and they in turn don't do the same to other programs.  

Combine that with the fact that the likes of Ala, Ohio St, Georgia and now USC fills in any roster holes by getting the top transfer options yearly.  Maybe I can rationalize that breaking through to the level of the absolute best of college football requires better and more consistent on field results.  I have a tough time envisioning a path to ND closing the gap on the above schools mentioned outside of a 1 year exceptional outcome.  

IMO, we started doing better in 21, due to NIL. We were top 5 that year in NIL, and got a boost. Dropped a bit in 22 in NLI, but still strong. Need to lead in that area!

Hoping Hartman and Carr raise our bar, and with strong NIL, more 5 star kids in the future. 

[jbrown_9999 1,018]

6 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

I mentioned early, the last 3 years has been good. Good enough to compete for a CFP. Just lacking a QB that developed. 

Even 2020 was decent, but a super small class due to roster size. And Jordan jumped. 

And 2021 was criminally low on Alt, Evans, and Diggs. All 3 are, or will be studs IMO... And Morrison was a miss in ratings. Only a 90ish... 

21 and 22 are as good as 23, or even better. 

Thank you sir! 

They've cheapened things, and lowered the bar lol. They used to say 5 stars were true blue chips. I consider 5 stars still the early difference makers. 

Yup. They were off the %s if using Rivals. I googled and found similar articles from Rivals, 247, Athletic, etc.. 

From the 22 247 article, holy cow, Bama lol

If Freeman can stay at the same level in the future as his last two classes, then he will move ND into the Top 4 or 5 from a Blue-Chip ratio perspective

Edited December 28, 2022 by jbrown_9999

[lazard 24]

improved, but reached their ceiling.  A bunch of 4 stars and either 1 or 0 5 stars.  Good enough to win a bunch of games, but not enough to compete against the powerhouses.

[4thand1 271]

I just don't see ND reaching the level of Ala, Ohio St or Georgia anytime soon.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong.  Yes, ND is offering competitive NIL deals but not willing to bend the rules like others are reportedly doing.  FWIW, I prefer college football to put in place and enforce strict NIL rules vs ND having to bend them but in the short term, it hurts NDs recruiting results slimy as the situation is.  NDs undergrad transfer situation is also a major disadvantage.  Seemingly everything must ideally fall into place for ND to have a shot at a national championship.  It's just not a sustainable situation or realistic expectation for the Irish to be a top 5 program annually.  

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

3 hours ago, jbrown_9999 said:

If Freeman can stay at the same level in the future as his last two classes, then he will move ND into the Top 4 or 5 from a Blue-Chip ratio perspective

Freeman has really only one class (23). The 21 class was done by Freeman joined, and BK was here last year for the 22 class.. 

Sure Freeman helped in 22. But we were 9th in 21, 7th in 22, and 8th (likely drop a bit by NSD) currently in 23. Our improvement coincided with NIL in 2020 (for the 21 class). I just hope Freeman keeps the foot on the pedal, and our collective turns up their game too. 

[jbrown_9999 1,018]

4 hours ago, OKelleyIrish said:

Freeman has really only one class (23). The 21 class was done by Freeman joined, and BK was here last year for the 22 class.. 

Sure Freeman helped in 22. But we were 9th in 21, 7th in 22, and 8th (likely drop a bit by NSD) currently in 23. Our improvement coincided with NIL in 2020 (for the 21 class). I just hope Freeman keeps the foot on the pedal, and our collective turns up their game too. 

I'd argue that Freeman had more of an impact on the 22 class than you are giving him credit for. Besides owning defensive recruiting, there were multiple offensive assistant coaches who talked about wanting to keep up with the example that Freeman set recruiting. He also fought Kelly's narrative that ND could not recruit Top 100 talent.

IMO, it is not coincidence that the 8 years before Freeman joined the staff, Kelly's Blue Chip ration was 58% or lower and then the two years Freeman was on staff, it jumped up to 77%+. I also do not think that NIL was as much a factor for the 2021 and 2022 classes as it was in 2023. The FUND did not get established until April of 2022.

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

21 minutes ago, jbrown_9999 said:

I'd argue that Freeman had more of an impact on the 22 class than you are giving him credit for. Besides owning defensive recruiting, there were multiple offensive assistant coaches who talked about wanting to keep up with the example that Freeman set recruiting. He also fought Kelly's narrative that ND could not recruit Top 100 talent.

IMO, it is not coincidence that the 8 years before Freeman joined the staff, Kelly's Blue Chip ration was 58% or lower and then the two years Freeman was on staff, it jumped up to 77%+. I also do not think that NIL was as much a factor for the 2021 and 2022 classes as it was in 2023. The FUND did not get established until April of 2022.

Freeman did awesome, so I give him credit. But we also had like 7 or 8 top 20 (at position) guys on offense. It was a very nice class on both sides. Our 21 was top 10, and Freeman had zero to do with it though. So you have to either credit to BK or NIL (IMO, both). The fund may have been established in 22, but NIL was still moving without a fund. And I recall also ND doing a bunch around NIL education and push. But also, I think too many folks credit Freeman. He's good. But he also slid big time this year late (Bowen, and 2 others). And might even not be top 10 for 23 after NSD. 5 teams are positioned well to jump us with 1 or 2 commits, and still have stuff going on. 

[coltssb 1,044]

Lost cause…give up….

[Tailgate Approved 248]

While there is no "one [indicator] to rule them all," the blue chip ratio is a well-regarded indicator of potential excellence. If you have more 4/5 stars, you're likely going to have a higher ceiling, right?

Assuming that can be accepted, the 2 year cycle that just occurred should close the gap between ND and the top tier recruiters. If Freeman and co. can continue to recruit at a high-70s/low-80s (depending on rankings used) BCR, the gap continues to close. 

There's always room for improvement (just ask Saban), but that shouldn't preclude us from appreciating what has been a phenomenal effort to improve the team.

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

For those interested in Composite Team Talent Rating....

#10 this year....

2015, and 2018, were both #8. Several years with #10 in the last 8 years.

The measurement only goes to 2015.

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

Edited December 29, 2022 by OKelleyIrish

[Tailgate Approved 248]

11 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

For those interested in Composite Team Talent Rating....

#10 this year....

2015, and 2018, were both #8. Several years with #10 in the last 8 years.

The measurement only goes to 2015.

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

That's an interesting and useful perspective. Once that is updated with the new class replacing 2019 (it was last updated 12/4), I think it is safe to assume the Composite will rise for ND.

2019:

2023:

[OKelleyIrish 1,198]

12 minutes ago, Tailgate Approved said:

That's an interesting and useful perspective. Once that is updated with the new class replacing 2019 (it was last updated 12/4), I think it is safe to assume the Composite will rise for ND.

2019:

2023:

I have no clue. The talent comp rate includes transfers, etc, so I enjoy the perspective. 

Like I've said a couple times, our talent has been good. Just minus an elite QB for several years.