The Virus

[irishwavend 571]

You just have to be patient, wait it out in your home, and let social distancing take effect. A couple weeks and we should be on the backside of this...just don’t become complacent once the peak passes...

[Rocketsan 768]

You just have to be patient, wait it out in your home, and let social distancing take effect. A couple weeks and we should be on the backside of this...just don’t become complacent once the peak passes...

 

People on the front line think the exact opposite. This is the calm before the storm. We are going to see the magnitude of this IN two weeks.

[Kelly Gruene 26]

Doesnt sound very pro-life when elderly's lives are less important than the economy

 

That’s the debate.

I don’t assume that all of the posters on DD share the same pro-life view.

States are now being forced to triage which patients will get ventilators and which will not. That is, patients who are admitted and need ventilators won’t get ventilators if there are others who are more likely to survive if they instead get the ventilators. Happening in Michigan right now.

They are already saying, like Italy, that if you’re too old or too infirm, you won’t get the ventilator. We’ll keep you comfortable if we can but you’re not getting intubated and put on a vent.

That’s a very weird sort of pro-life.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Kelly Gruene

[Hank Skorpio 0]

Exactly. We are three to four weeks away from the sh!t. People assume it’s bad now. It’s not...

 

Friendly reminder to all that the the US and South Korea reported their first cases of coronavirus to the WHO within a day of each other. Not discounting the differences between the countries, but it's crazy to think where we could be right now if the right people had taken this more seriously...

[jbrown_9999 1,020]

Friendly reminder to all that the the US and South Korea reported their first cases of corona virus to the WHO within a day of each other. Not discounting the differences between the countries, but it's crazy to think where we could be right now if the right people had taken this more seriously...

 

There are a few factors that helped South Korea.

 

1) Their earlier experience with MERS which helped create the national mindset for preparedness

 

2) The fact that the first outbreak hit followers of a mega church so that A) there was an large number of early cases which got people's attention and B) it was somewhat easier to identify and test those initial folks

 

3) It also helped their fatality results in that most early cases involved younger, non-smoking women. Probably the lowest risk demographic.

 

4) Government was willing to use "Big Brother" technology to identify where infected people went and who they might have interacted with by using cell phone location info and credit card records.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

[Hank Skorpio 0]

Definitely right that those factors worked in their favor, jbrown. I think most of all I'm shocked at the clusterf*** that testing has been in the US when it seems so clear that the knowledge it provides is a linchpin to tamping down transmission. I'm also struggling with the balance of information sharing on patient location and travel history - where SK is sharing potentially affected locations down to the bus stop level and the best info I can get is what half of the county a patient resides in.

[irishwavend 571]

People on the front line think the exact opposite. This is the calm before the storm. We are going to see the magnitude of this IN two weeks.

 

My wife is on the front line... Pregnant, too...f'ing real fun...

[jbrown_9999 1,020]

People on the front line think the exact opposite. This is the calm before the storm. We are going to see the magnitude of this IN two weeks.

 

It will also depend on geography to some extent. Major metros will probably lead followed by less dense areas.

 

Given the lack of a vaccine, the virus either needs to die off without majority of people being exposed (probably will not happen) or herd immunity will need to develop. I have seen different estimates that 60% to 70% of people need to either have natural immunity or have had the virus and then recover before herd immunity can be established.

 

Even assuming that confirmed cases only represent 10% of all cases, that would still mean that less than 1% of population has had the virus at this point. As a result, there is still a long way to go. Social distancing will probably be relaxed and then enforced multiple times for a given geography until the 60%+ threshold is reached.

 

It also means that about 200 million people will probably eventually catch the virus in the US. Even if only .1% die, that would still be 200,000 fatalities from the virus.

Edited March 31, 2020 by jbrown_9999

[Rocketsan 768]

My wife is on the front line... Pregnant, too...f'ing real fun...

 

As is mine... niece was too but she is pregnant and they pulled her and she will be isolating until August...

[irishwavend 571]

As is mine... niece was too but she is pregnant and they pulled her and she will be isolating until August...

 

My wife isn’t so lucky...and if she catches it and has the kiddo, the recommendation is to isolate kiddo from all of us for thirty days. They try that, though, and they’re going to have big issues...

[Rocketsan 768]

Sorry to hear man. When is the due date?

[Soko 128]

https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-italy-mike-pence-36fa8960-2c57-4042-a31f-ed0e4e78ac1a.html

 

Holy ****. The lack of action early doors on this is beyond shameful.

[ELDER06 248]

https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-italy-mike-pence-36fa8960-2c57-4042-a31f-ed0e4e78ac1a.html

 

Holy ****. The lack of action early doors on this is beyond shameful.

 

Yet, China has re-opened these wet markets where the virus originated. They need to be punished severely by not just the US, but the rest of the world.

[Soko 128]

Yet, China has re-opened these wet markets where the virus originated. They need to be punished severely by not just the US, but the rest of the world.

 

The move from China had started already. Having lived there for 5 years it cannot happen soon enough.

 

The issue will be companies who want to also avail of the 11. billion people living there for consumption.. Chinese demand got many people through the GFC.

[jessemoore97 1,280]

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/

[Kelly Gruene 26]

Yet, China has re-opened these wet markets where the virus originated. They need to be punished severely by not just the US, but the rest of the world.

 

They will be.

And not even by governments, perhaps.

It seems to me that no one will ever want to go to Wuhan from outside China. Heck, people in China already don't want to go there, and they are trying to keep people from Wuhan in Wuhan.

I think tourism to China will drop like a lead balloon for at least 5 to 10 years.

I suspect governments across the globe will severely limit travel by Chinese nationals for a long time. Maybe years.

The financial implications of that alone will be huge.

 

No one in the world will ever ever forget this. No one will ever forget where it started. Chinese people in countries across the planet will feel the sting of this, their businesses as well as personally.

 

China will do its best to show that the virus was brought there by someone else. They will do their best to show how well they have controlled it. But their absolute lack of openness to outside investigation and to their own people's ability to describe what they have experienced will be an obstacle to acceptance for a decade.

 

China will try to buy influence by making protective gear available. They will buy influence by buying stock in failing companies across the globe. They will never, however live this down. Never.

 

The average citizen walking the streets of New York in May 2022 will still have doubts about encounters with Chinese tourists, if there even are any. The average citizen in Milan will be afraid of Chinese tourists for a generation.

 

American companies will divest some of their Chinese operations, finding other options.

 

The economics of this for China may be punishment enough. I don't know what governments will do, if anything. Everyone, however, will want their "pound of flesh".

Think about how before this you heard stories of the Great Depression. Our grandchildren will be thinking the same thing of us as we did our parents' and grandparents' stories of their experiences during the Depression.

This won't be the depression that started on Wall Street. This will be the recession/depression that started in Wuhan.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Kelly Gruene

[stdntDrvr 12]

To save jobs, the company I work for slashed everyone’s pay by 10% for 2020. Hopefully that’ll keep everyone employed while this passes.

[GunSlinger 28]

To save jobs, the company I work for slashed everyone’s pay by 10% for 2020. Hopefully that’ll keep everyone employed while this passes.

 

Man that seems shady to me, I get it and understand the reasoning but I think this stimulus package has money available for businesses to make pay roll. Obviously I have no idea what company you work for so they may not be eligible, just a general remark by me.

Edited April 3, 2020 by GunSlinger

[echo88 74]

Yet, China has re-opened these wet markets where the virus originated. They need to be punished severely by not just the US, but the rest of the world.

 

Cmon man let's give em a break. Theyre trying. I mean, Shanghai just announced a ban on eating dogs and cats. Dogs. And cats. Lol

[jbrown_9999 1,020]

Man that seems shady to me, I get it and understand the reasoning but I think this stimulus package has money available for businesses to make pay roll. Obviously I have no idea what company you work for so they may not be eligible, just a general remark by me.

 

Please note that the stimulus money has not been available yet but businesses still need to run payroll. Today is first day to apply for SBA loans under the stimulus program.

 

We have seen our AR increase by about a month's worth as our clients' AP gets delayed - either due to their move to "work from home" slowing things down or from them intentionally trying to hold on to cash.

 

So far it has not impacted payroll but we have had to slow pay some of our vendors as a result (impacting their cash flow).

 

We are fortunate in that our business has not really been impacted too much since our folks already worked remotely from home offices. Other businesses I can see being impacted big time.