Winning Paradox

[Dardo 17]

I had not heard of the Fulmer Cup, bwhahahaha!

 

 

I haven't heard any stories about Kelly in the community yet so I can't speak to his public persona. However Davie & Weis are complete a$$holes, and I have stories about both of them from a good friend, and my wife who had dealings with them.

 

If Kelly had brought in more talent on the dline, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation right now.

 

As far as the BoT goes, do they really care about football? Given that ND will drop D1 sports (nuclear option) if the NCAA allows players to be paid?

 

I really just meant that it isn't all about a concrete number of wins and losses for some people.

 

And the Fulmer Cup was much funnier back when I could make fun of the other schools. Much less funny now lol.

[Gonkers 9]

You're missing the most salient point:

 

Urban Meyer left Florida- a great job- and went to Ohio State because they are a national power committed to providing the coach the resources to recruit the very best players in the country.. Notre Dame is a lousy job, because the administration is not committed to being a national power. No great coach is coming here, because Notre Dame is going to hamstring every football coach. So, we have the worst of both world: We get the low hanging fruit and they're gonna hamstring him.

 

Uh, he only mentioned Meyer in passing. Meyer left Florida because of health reasons (*cough*rumors*cough, banging another coaches wife, possible ncaa violations) He even took off a year. He didn't leave Florida to go to OSU.

 

I agree with everything else you said 100%.

 

Edit: I just wish I could make that point to others here on the board about firing Kelly. I don't care if they fire Kelly or keep him. They're not going to get another (better) coach until the BoT/Administration commit to being a national power.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Gonkers

[ELDER06 248]

I hope you're right. Winning 9-10 games on average can keep him here, but being an eight-win coach should be unacceptable at ND and he's had a more than generous amount of time to prove he's merely mediocre.

 

I could have forgiven an 8 win season two years ago (2014) w/ all of the injuries. However, this year they had more talent than everyone on their schedule except USC. It's clear BVG was a cancer and after the Texas and Duke debacles, the season was lost.

[ELDER06 248]

So you're saying that the inevitable "but, we had a new starting qb" excuse at the end of the season won't save him? If so, good.

 

After all of the drama this offseason, I can't see it. As far as Fleck, UC fans here can't comprehend that a powerhouse MAC school is as good of a job, if not better, than a middling program in a Group 5 conference.

 

There's a lot of buzz OSU DB Coach Kerry Coombs might be the top candidate for the job. He was a legendary HS Coach, an Asst Under Kelly at UC, and has been recognized as one of the top recruiting Asst Coaches in the country.

[Dardo 17]

Uh, he only mentioned Meyer in passing. Meyer left Florida because of health reasons (*cough*rumors*cough, banging another coaches wife, possible ncaa violations) He even took off a year. He didn't leave Florida to go to OSU.

 

I agree with everything else you said 100%.

 

Edit: I just wish I could make that point to others here on the board about firing Kelly. I don't care if they fire Kelly or keep him. They're not going to get another (better) coach until the BoT/Administration commit to being a national power.

 

Who knows if Fleck/Herman/Rhule/whatever Colorado's coaches name (and i understand some of them just took jobs) is better though? They may be the next meyer? They may not be. But we know what Kelly is. He's an ******* in PCs, whose players have been arrested more than Weis, and who still doesn't make (much less win) major bowl games. Fleck may end up being worse in every way, but Kelly, as a whole, isn't good enough for a lot of fans and alumni.

[JTennant 290]

I don't think I need to sacrifice anything because I expect them to lose big next season. After they win 6-7 games like I think they honestly will with a stubborn, lame duck head coach who refuses to admit he needs to change his approach, the question then becomes "Will Jack do the right thing that he didn't do after the 2016 season?"

 

"F*** your hypothetical Faith"

 

:grin:

[jbrown_9999 1,044]

And what one of those guys would ever even pickup the phone if ND called? Not one of them. They all have it perfect.

 

Dabo Sweeney: He has that program hitting on all cylinders, he could ask for the moon and get it.

 

David Shaw: Stanford. Enough said. he could go 5-7 here on out and never lose his job. He has a guaranteed job.

 

Bob Stoops: He owns the program, no administration getting in his face

 

Jimbo Fisher: Automatic Florida recruits without even asking.

 

What was your point again? I may have missed it. Were you saying ND could get one of those guys?

 

My point is that ND's expectation for its football coach needs to be better than what Brian Kelly has achieved in his seven years. 8-5 records cannot be considered acceptable or good but should be regarded as failures (and only happen one in five years at most). Unfortunately, the party line espoused by Swarbrick is that 8-5 seems to be pretty good.

[ColinKSU 18]

(i'm not trying to be snarky, okay maybe a little) so what is your threshold before you fire the next coach?

 

under 10 wins after the first season?

 

under 20 wins after the second season?

 

under 30 wins after the third season?

 

under 40 wins after the fourth season?

 

under 50 wins after the fifth season?

 

doesn't win a NC by year 3? Holtz, Devine, Parseghian, Leahy all had one by their third year. Only Rockne didn't.

 

I never said Kelly has to win a national title by year three. I never said he has to win a national title by year 50, for that matter.

 

What I said is that being an eight-win coach at Notre Dame should be unacceptable. If Notre Dame publicly aspires to be in the same league as true national title contending programs, they need to at least attempt to play under the same general expectations. Brian Kelly wouldn't have made it to year 8 at a significant number of programs if he was an eight-win average coach coming off of a complete dumpster fire of a 4-8 season in year 7.

 

If you're asking me personally what I expect out of a Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz was a nine-win average coach. During his 11 years, he won 10 or more games five times, won five major bowls and won a national title. He never had a season as bad as Kelly with two five-win seasons, although one came in his first year after inheriting a truly awful program from his predecessor.

 

Now, Holtz was at ND during a different era, but I'd accept an average of nine wins a season with a 50% or better chance of winning 10 or more games and a proven track record of winning major bowl games when you get there. You could close your eyes and pick a date during his 11-year run and it would be safe to say ND was a relevant program in the conversation of the true powers of the sport. They weren't always sniffing a national title, but they were a strong, respectable program.

 

Kelly is coming into his eighth year at Notre Dame, and the program has never felt further away from the top of college football during his tenure. This team will head into 2017 unranked and miles away from any conversation about the best teams in college football, and that's because they showed themselves to be a punchline last year. And it's not easy to turn that ship around, either, once public perception has decided you're something. For proof of that, look no further than Bob Davie. After a 5-7 season in 1999 where they were exposed as a fraud, he rallied to a 9-3 2000 season before another 5-7 run in 2001 sealed his fate. While he managed to get back to nine wins, the damage done during 1999 was so severe that nothing he did in 2000 really mattered towards securing him any good will.

 

Kelly is what he is at Notre Dame, and nothing is going to change that. He never had to win a national title; he just had to not do what he's already done. The die is cast, and all ND is doing now is kicking the can down the road until he has no choice but to give him the ax.

Edited December 7, 2016 by ColinKSU

[goirish83 0]

I never said Kelly has to win a national title by year three. I never said he has to win a national title by year 50, for that matter.

 

What I said is that being an eight-win coach at Notre Dame should be unacceptable. If Notre Dame publicly aspires to be in the same league as true national title contending programs, they need to at least attempt to play under the same general expectations. Brian Kelly wouldn't have made it to year 8 at a significant number of programs if he was an eight-win average coach coming off of a complete dumpster fire of a 4-8 season in year 7.

 

If you're asking me personally what I expect out of a Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz was a nine-win average coach. During his 11 years, he won 10 or more games five times, won five major bowls and won a national title. He never had a season as bad as Kelly with two five-win seasons, although one came in his first year after inheriting a truly awful program from his predecessor.

 

Now, Holtz was at ND during a different era, but I'd accept an average of nine wins a season with a 50% or better chance of winning 10 or more games and a proven track record of winning major bowl games when you get there. You could close your eyes and pick a date during his 11-year run and it would be safe to say ND was a relevant program in the conversation of the true powers of the sport. They weren't always sniffing a national title, but they were a strong, respectable program.

 

Kelly is coming into his eighth year at Notre Dame, and the program has never felt further away from the top of college football during his tenure. This team will head into 2017 unranked and miles away from any conversation about the best teams in college football, and that's because they showed themselves to be a punchline last year. And it's not easy to turn that ship around, either, once public perception has decided you're something. For proof of that, look no further than Bob Davie. After a 5-7 season in 1999 where they were exposed as a fraud, he rallied to a 9-3 2000 season before another 5-7 run in 2001 sealed his fate. While he managed to get back to nine wins, the damage done during 1999 was so severe that nothing he did in 2000 really mattered towards securing him any good will.

 

Kelly is what he is at Notre Dame, and nothing is going to change that. He never had to win a national title; he just had to not do what he's already done. The die is cast, and all ND is doing now is kicking the can down the road until he has no choice but to give him the ax.

 

Very well said

[Wharton70 89]

I don't expect ND to be in the title hunt every season, but what bothers me about Kelly is that he has to use the "we're so young" excuse for why the team went 4-8 this far into his tenure. To me, that is completely inexcusable and is a problem that he himself created. The only reason this ND was so young is because he constantly missed at recruiting over a multi-year stretch and was forced to throw 18 year olds out there to play high-level college football. Kelly and his assistants consistently missed their numbers at multiple positions and slow played good players who went on to sign with teams that beat us every year.

 

Not winning a title every season is a forgivable problem. Being incompetent at this level is inexsucable -- especially when Kelly is the first person to tell you how experienced he is. I have no reason to believe the light will suddenly go on after nearly a decade here.

 

Add to that very poor schemes and coaches (mostly from his 'bush') - van goiter, booker, molnar - and their inability to develop what have been good players from a strength, skill, and execution standpoint.

[jbrown_9999 1,044]

If you're asking me personally what I expect out of a Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz was a nine-win average coach. During his 11 years, he won 10 or more games five times, won five major bowls and won a national title.

 

BTW, ND played 11 games in the regular season when Holtz was there but now play 12.

 

So, Holtz averaged winning 9+ out of 12 games each season.

 

Kelly is only averaging 8+ wins out of 13 games each season.

[FaithInIrish Forever 4,799]

I think you guys are doing awesome at bringing out great points

 

Current Era by most opinions has not measured up to most expectations

 

Most posters would agree that 10 wins per year, a major bowl win and a run at a National Championship once every cycle would be about where we'd expect to be.

 

Most years the current Era is about 2 wins off that pace. Enough to make appearances in the Music City Bowl or Pinstripe Bowl more often than the Fiesta Bowl and the Bowl Championship Series

 

Coaching changes are risky. The Irish could do better, the same, or worse. I think Kelly's going to get one more chance with a new defensive coordinator whether I like it or not. So we'll see what happens.

[Gonkers 9]

I never said Kelly has to win a national title by year three. I never said he has to win a national title by year 50, for that matter.

 

What I said is that being an eight-win coach at Notre Dame should be unacceptable. If Notre Dame publicly aspires to be in the same league as true national title contending programs, they need to at least attempt to play under the same general expectations. Brian Kelly wouldn't have made it to year 8 at a significant number of programs if he was an eight-win average coach coming off of a complete dumpster fire of a 4-8 season in year 7.

 

If you're asking me personally what I expect out of a Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz was a nine-win average coach. During his 11 years, he won 10 or more games five times, won five major bowls and won a national title. He never had a season as bad as Kelly with two five-win seasons, although one came in his first year after inheriting a truly awful program from his predecessor.

 

Now, Holtz was at ND during a different era, but I'd accept an average of nine wins a season with a 50% or better chance of winning 10 or more games and a proven track record of winning major bowl games when you get there. You could close your eyes and pick a date during his 11-year run and it would be safe to say ND was a relevant program in the conversation of the true powers of the sport. They weren't always sniffing a national title, but they were a strong, respectable program.

 

Kelly is coming into his eighth year at Notre Dame, and the program has never felt further away from the top of college football during his tenure. This team will head into 2017 unranked and miles away from any conversation about the best teams in college football, and that's because they showed themselves to be a punchline last year. And it's not easy to turn that ship around, either, once public perception has decided you're something. For proof of that, look no further than Bob Davie. After a 5-7 season in 1999 where they were exposed as a fraud, he rallied to a 9-3 2000 season before another 5-7 run in 2001 sealed his fate. While he managed to get back to nine wins, the damage done during 1999 was so severe that nothing he did in 2000 really mattered towards securing him any good will.

 

Kelly is what he is at Notre Dame, and nothing is going to change that. He never had to win a national title; he just had to not do what he's already done. The die is cast, and all ND is doing now is kicking the can down the road until he has no choice but to give him the ax.

 

You see, I remember just about everyone hating Holtz by his last few years. Now everyone reveres him because they know what happened afterword. You want Kelly gone, just be careful what you wish for. You could get another 10 years of Davieham.

[goirish83 0]

You want Kelly gone, just be careful what you wish for. You could get another 10 years of Davieham.

 

So because there's a chance of that happening we should just stay the course and accept 8 wins and never expect more?

 

Essentially you're saying from here on out the only thing a Notre Dame coach has to do to keep his job as long as he wants it is be better then Davie Willingham and Weis. If that's where our expectations are as a program these days that's really sad

[Frankus 197]

BTW, ND played 11 games in the regular season when Holtz was there but now play 12.

 

So, Holtz averaged winning 9+ out of 12 games each season.

 

Kelly is only averaging 8+ wins out of 13 games each season.

 

And comparing Kelly's schedules to Holtz's is a joke. Holtz played a much tougher slate.

[Frankus 197]

You see, I remember just about everyone hating Holtz by his last few years. Now everyone reveres him because they know what happened afterword. You want Kelly gone, just be careful what you wish for. You could get another 10 years of Davieham.

 

I don't remember anywhere near the unhappiness with Holtz compared to all the coaches in the post Holtz era. The one complaint I remember is he didn't pass to the tight end enough, which he always jokes about. If anything, the unhappiness with Holtz magnified how spoiled the fanbase had become by his success. Of course, in his final years the administration pulled the rug out under him, and then deemphasized football, which is why we're at the place we are at today.

[dangeruss 6]

And comparing Kelly's schedules to Holtz's is a joke. Holtz played a much tougher slate.

yeah from '88-'93 ND always played a tough schedule and Holz's record against Top 10 and Top 20 teams was insanely good. that's what happens when you can control the LOS.

[Araparseghianfan 0]

I would rather the kids win then the coaching staff change.

The kids didn't win this year, so I was ok with a change, turned out to be a DC

If the kids don't win again next year I would be fine with a change.

 

 

The funny part about winning is if the program wins 10 games again next year many, probably myself included will probably be ok with no change because the kids would be happy again and the program bounced back.

 

I'm interested in whether you would sacrifice winning for a coaching change. I won't go that far, will you?

 

It depends on how much winning.

 

If we go 14-0, I wouldn't sacrifice that for a coaching change.

 

If we go 7-5, I'd rather lose 2 extra games and go 5-7 to guarantee Kelly's ouster.

[Araparseghianfan 0]

I guess a 6-6 season would make the question most Complicated.

 

I responded 6-6 to a minimium record that Kelly would need to stay.

 

Here's the logic

 

previous coach

 

3-9 6-6 6-6, out

4-8 ??? ????

 

I feel l like if we miss another bowl. the writing is on the wall. If we qualify we are in this Paradox area where Admin has proven in the recent past to stick with their guy.

 

 

Its tough glad I'm not Swarbrick..

 

Deciding whether or not to fire Kelly at 6-6 is not a tough question. It is a very easy question and the answer is obvious. Fire him. It was not a close call that Kelly needed to be fired after this year either.

 

Kelly does not deserve extra time just because we've kept other bad coaches way too long.

[Frankus 197]

yeah from '88-'93 ND always played a tough schedule and Holz's record against Top 10 and Top 20 teams was insanely good. that's what happens when you can control the LOS.

 

I found this comparison of ND senior students who'd had 4 years of Kelly and four years of Holtz.

 

graduating senior.

 

Class of '90 (all ranks are based on your end AP)

8 wins over top 10 teams

14 wins over ranked teams

11 losses

 

Average of the 8 classes who had 4 years of Holtz ('90-'97)

6.75 wins over top 10 teams

15.37 wins over ranked teams

9.25 losses

 

Class of '17

1 win over top 10 team

4 wins over ranked teams

20 losses