Going into conference championship weekend, everyone pretty much assumes we are in.
But what if Clemson and Georgia win, and OU and/or OSU blow out their opponents? I am not saying I don't think we deserve our spot, but I would not hold it against the committee to pull a fast one on us and try to "force us" into a conference. These teams would all have 12 or more wins and possibly harder SOR than us. Do you really think the committee would take us over 12-1 OU and OSU for the 4th spot, when both of these teams won their conference champ games bigly?
PLUS, they're getting the "recency bias" if they play really well. Our most recent game wasn't our best showing, and I really think it could hurt us in the end.
This is the main problem I have with not playing in a conference championship. It isn't about the '13th data point.' It's the fact that all the other teams are playing this weekend and showing the committee what they've got, and we're sitting around twiddling our thumbs. The committee says they look at "the whole body of work" but they've forgiven early losses in the past (e.g. 2014 OSU).
I am just not as confident as some of you on here.