Worst Case Scenario

[IrishCalves]

Note: this is entirely for the sake of debate.

 

I was thinking the other day of how recruiting got real bad with Tyrone Willingham when we started to lose on a regular basis. When the gravy train was rolling, and he started 8-0, he got guys that we see on our roster today; Trevor Laws, Brady Quinn, John Carlson, etc. Yet when the victories stopped coming, recruits simply said, “No thanks.â€

 

To a degree we saw that effect with defensive recruiting and the Irish in recent years. Prospects saw our defense continue to struggle, and get lit up in bowl game debacles, which lead to most of the DL and the LB recruits to say, “Maybe some other time…â€

 

So, from there, I wondered; could the Irish recruiting take a nose dive across the board if our season unfolds as a worst case scenario? I guess I just wanted to break from the optimistic stream of thought for a while, and open up the dialogue and possibility of a scenario that feasibly could unfold – though I’m not so sure how realistic it is to portray a “worst case scenarioâ€.

 

Imagine Weis naming a starter at QB that gets hurt on the final series before the Michigan game. Imagine the offensive line struggling to gel with one another. Imagine our wideouts failing to establish their presence. Imagine a defensive line that is simply too small beyond Trevor Laws. Imagine yet another year of lackluster pass rushing. Imagine our kicker continuing to struggle and thus missing PAT’s and only being able to kick off to the 10.

 

Let’s say many of the red flags going into the season are warranted, and don’t find a solution before this season. Lets say the Irish go anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5.

 

- Would the recruiting haul we get before the season starts be enough for us to be at least complacent with?

- Do we think Corwin Brown & Co. would be able to reverse our fortunes on defensive recruiting, regardless of regular season results?

 

Any other thoughts?

[NDFan3]

The difference is....Weis, Corwin, Ianello, etc. can actually RECRUIT kids. Ty didn't put the time or effort into recruiting to have the success CW has had the last 3 years. Ty was a guy that relied on the wins, whereas CW and company are actually recruiting these kids.

 

As long as we aren't completely embarassed on the defensive side of the ball like we were last season, I don't any losses affecting our recruiting.

[Guest AtlantaIrish]

I see what you are saying IrishCalves and I am worried that some of those scenarios could come true. Our defense could be atrocious again this season, we simply don't have a lot of playmakers on that side of the ball. My only hope is that Corwin Brown will keep barking in the recruit's ears saying "you see, we need you guys here."

 

With that being said, I have always liked the Irish in the underdog role. Nobody expects us to start 2-0, let alone 3-0 with our schedule. But I can see this team doing it, not because I am blinded by my Notre Dame goggles or because I drink way too much, but because this team has heart and enough talent to win those games.

 

We had the bullseye on our backs last year because of all the preseason talk and expectations. Tech came out gunning for us in the first game and played with a chip on their shoulder. We should do the same thing.

 

Now I ask you, what happens if we do start 3-0 and are now top 15?

 

This scenario could happen and the amount of momentum would be enormous, just like when Ty's first team started 8-0 and brought in guys like Brady and Zibby.

 

My hope lies there, this team will surprise people. F Tech, F Penn State, and certainly F Michigan, we can beat those teams.

 

Go Irish!!

[Guest Mikey G]

I agree with NDFAN. It is the coaches. We need coaches that can sell our school, and Weis has done a pretty good job with the offense, Ianello definitely doing his part, and now with Corwin on board, he is doing a great job selling the recruits his defense.

 

Butch Davis reeled in Marvin Austin, the top rated DT in the nation last year, and took Greg Little away from us. How did they do last season?

 

Even better example, Ron Zook, This guy can flat out recruit, and it really shows. He will probably still be a mediocre coach (he only managed 7-8 win seasons at Florida with MONSTER talent), and it shows with his records, but that doesn't mean he can't snag some good recruits.

 

So I say, it is all about the coaches. If they can sell their school, then they can get the recruits, regardless of how good/bad they did a season before, or the season of.

[BlackIrish42]

i agree with all above and i would also add that CW has done a MUCH better job than ty in taking advantage of the good seasons in recruting. in other words, i think CW has brought in better players than ty did, even though quinn and carlson were/are all-americans. i think charlie has brought in more depth of 4 & 5 stars than ty *ever* did. ya see what i mean?

[hogan46]

I think it is how we lose that recruits take into account. Mental errors, lack of preparation, blow-out loses all turn recruits (and fans) off. 33 point loses has to be forgotten spread. Now, if it is something similar to USC two years ago, you can't help but see that the Irish put it all on the field against a superior team.

 

I think one advantage Weis (and the recruits) has going into this season is a new understanding of commitment. Also, Weis has 14 as June 16th. I don't Willingham ever offered 14 recruits before June 16th.

[hogan46]

Plus, I think Atlanta started to hit on this. If we look BCS bound after beating USC this year, you start having a lot of those top prospects who we had an outside shot with (think an Arthur Brown or a Shane Hale type) come into the fold.

[Guest Pete]

While kids like to see results on the field, I would hope that they are smart enough to realize that the depth isn't there yet. The coaches we have now, in Weis, Brown, Illiano (I know I spelled that wrong), and Lewis (who was one of the most respected DB coaches in the NFL) work a hell of a lot harder. They also don't bullsh*t kids, which I think will go along way in the end. The thing about the kicks only getting to the ten, remember they are being moved back to the 30 this year, so it might be the 15 or godforbid the 20. I think the most important thing is that the fans stay patient for the first 6-7 games. It could get real ugly in the beginning, as long as they show improvement.

[Guest SirJohn]

I like what pete has to say about this

[irishziggy]

everyone makes great points. hopefully the recruits realize it's tough replacing basically our whole scoring offense in Quinn, Walker, Shark & Rhema. Lets show them we're making strides though. If we struggle in the beginning (which may be expected), but finish the season strong with a quality win in a bowl game, that will help us as well.

[IrishCalves]

I hear what all of you are saying. I do like what you have to say. I didn't bring this thread up to forecast inevitable doom and gloom. Its more or less my attempt at throwing up a "caution" sign, that there are red flags that we should take into effect before we all down the ND kool-aid in unison, and tell ourselves, "Everything will work out like we want it to." I'm not saying the recipe will come to fruition, but the ingredients for a rather ugly season are there:

 

- All-Americans at WR and QB just graduated (replaced by guys who are anywhere from virtual to completely unknown quantities at the college level).

- 8 new starters on offense (which happened to be the backbone of the previous two squads).

- Unproven defensive coordinator (is this guy just a recruiter who isn't that great at the X's and O's?).

- Brand new defensive scheme (most NFL teams take 1-2 seasons to make the transition from 4-3 to 3-4).

 

There are other areas of concern as well (kicker, nose tackle, set starters on defense, etc), but by now you see my point. This could pretty easily get ugly, especially if the injury bug bites us hard.

 

Yes, we have do much better "salesmen" than Tyrone ever did. But if the product doesn't look good to kids - which is a real possibility, if the Irish start off slow - then they aren't going to buy in, no matter how good the "sales pitch" is. Hearing someone promise you, "It's a brand new Rolls Royce!" wouldn't change your mind if your eyes saw a Yugo.

 

Again, not saying that this is the end as we know it. I'm hoping just as much as the rest of you that whoever starts at QB will fulfill the hype, and that Corwin Brown can quickly turn around this defense, and that the RB stable grinds opponents into dust while we play keep away. I just want to look at this team from all different angles. Optimism is one thing, but it does have it's blind spots that an objective glance usually addresses.

 

All this talk sort of places a higher premium on the early returns ND's staff has had on the recruiting trail. Its comforting to not worry about getting the majority or even the foundation for this recruiting class from the fall onward.

 

If we could somehow coax Floyd into an ND verbal, while landing two or three DB's while we're at it... that'd sure be nice - make things a lot simpler as far as rounding this group out goes.

[ND FANATIC]

I agree with what yor saying IC, but I think that the most important thing we have to do is improve. If we are a much better team at the end of the year than we are at the beginning of the year, the recruits will see that. If we play an aggressive style, both off and def, and it looks like a fun place to play, they'll keep coming. I think the guys we are recruiting would understand an improving 7-5 team that is rebuilding and want to be a part of it, but a stagnent 7-5 would be a little tougher sell.

 

I honestly believe that some of the problems we had recruiting last year were because the team never got any better, actually a little worse I think. If the incoming kids can see an improvement and feel the momentum shift, I don't think we'll have problems getting the guys we want

[chirodomer]

Any successful coach or businessman never plays from a position of fear. You go with what you have. if you get hit in the mouth then you get up, regroup, see who is left and push forward. You keep hope that reinforcements are coming but you fight like hell until you either win or die trying. The key for the coach is "I WILL" the key for the team is "WE WILL"! Then it's straight faith. Can't play the what if game w/o a lot of prozac and tums.

[Double_Domer]

Any successful coach or businessman never plays from a position of fear. You go with what you have. if you get hit in the mouth then you get up, regroup, see who is left and push forward. You keep hope that reinforcements are coming but you fight like hell until you either win or die trying. The key for the coach is "I WILL" the key for the team is "WE WILL"! Then it's straight faith. Can't play the what if game w/o a lot of prozac and tums.

 

Exactly. Also - if a winning record were the key to recruiting then ILL and NC would never have pulled in star recruits last year.

 

I understand that if the wheels completely fall off the wagon then you may see guys jumping off. I don't see that happening b/c the coaching is too good and the kids see the improvement (NFL bound guys who 2 years ago didn't have a chance under the previous coaches). We can all say what if, but if the Zooker can still get guys to come when he can't coach, then CW and CB (who can coach) will get and keep the guys and do something with them on the field. Should be a fun year. We will be better than everyone thinks ala CW's first year.

[IndyIrish81]

I think we'll be better than what people think, especially on defense. The 3-4 is going to cause a lot of confusion for offenses and will be a pleasant surprise.

 

Just wait, I'll be the guy in November telling you I told you so.

[jfschellcrna]

I think we'll be better than what people think, especially on defense. The 3-4 is going to cause a lot of confusion for offenses and will be a pleasant surprise.

 

Just wait, I'll be the guy in November telling you I told you so.

i sure hope so.

[Double_Domer]

I think we'll be better than what people think, especially on defense. The 3-4 is going to cause a lot of confusion for offenses and will be a pleasant surprise.

 

Just wait, I'll be the guy in November telling you I told you so.

 

I agree. I will take an agressive defense that gets after people (even if we lose) over what we've seen the past umpteen years.

[jfschellcrna]

I think we'll be better than what people think, especially on defense. The 3-4 is going to cause a lot of confusion for offenses and will be a pleasant surprise.

 

Just wait, I'll be the guy in November telling you I told you so.

 

I agree. I will take an agressive defense that gets after people (even if we lose) over what we've seen the past umpteen years.

agreed....................

[Double_Domer]

I think we'll be better than what people think, especially on defense. The 3-4 is going to cause a lot of confusion for offenses and will be a pleasant surprise.

 

Just wait, I'll be the guy in November telling you I told you so.

 

I agree. I will take an agressive defense that gets after people (even if we lose) over what we've seen the past umpteen years.

agreed....................

 

Do I hear a harumpff....

[IrishCalves]

I like the way you guys are thinking. chirodomer made an excellent point, that the staff has got to be the ones to believe - fear can't be the motivating factor behind their recruiting. If the coaching staff was thinking, "Well, we'd better get 'em now, because this is gonna get ugly..." I'd be pretty upset. If anyone has to believe, it is them.

 

I mean it is the middle of June, so a devils advocate thread couldn't really do anything but get the wheels turning.

 

And besides, I figured it'd be better if a Domer delivered the message of caution and a "worst case scenario", rather than some ND hating a:censored: clown like Mark May.

 

So, given the sort of summer/fall cutoff point thats behind this whole thought, here's a question for ya:

 

As far as certain players, and the # of commits in mind, where would you realistically like to see Notre Dame's recruiting picture end up before the season starts?