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A little off topic, but ...


Ital-Irish

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I am currently in the middle of a discussion with some friends about the Florida/ohio st./michigan thing.

 

It is my opinion that we cannot automatically assume that Michigan and Ohio State are automatically the two best teams in the country just because they played each other close.

 

Their two wins at the beginning of the year were nice, but they essentially didn't have to get up for a game the rest of the year until they played each other.

 

Sure, Ohio State is undefeated and No. 1, no arguments there. But are they that strong of a No. 1 that they have to blow out their biggest rival in order for said rival to drop in the polls. I don't think so.

 

If I remember correctly, Michigan v. Ohio State is always close.

 

Let me know what you think.

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It's a good question because it's a toss-up. Look at the facts:

 

Records:

Florida - 11-1

Michigan - 11-1

Louisville - 11-1

Wisconsin - 10-1

Boise State - 11-0

 

Final Strength of Schedule:

Florida - 47

Michigan - 53

Louisville - 103

Wisconsin - 106

Boise State - 119

 

Florida and Michigan are heads, shoulders and chests above the other three in terms of their schedules. I feel a little bit for Boise State, but they need to schedule a couple of tough out of conference games if they want to be in the discussion (how about us?).

 

I say start the season in mid-September, play the bowl games over the holiday and then a playoff with four teams that culminates with a NC game the same weekend as the SuperBowl.

 

BTW:

SoS:

ND - 55

LSU - 59

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I should have mentioned tOSU:

 

Ohio State (12-0): SoS - 101

 

And remember they played both #3 Michigan and #19 Texas.

Their Big Ten schedule was a joke with: Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota.

But they did beat everyone (except Michigan) decisively.

 

You can just go back and forth all day with this stuff. The problem is that 11 or 12 games just is not enough to evaluate teams with diferent schedules. How many common opponents did tOSU, Mich and Florida have in common -- any?

 

That's why at least a four team playoff is a no-brainer for those who want a true NC versus a glorified beauty contest.

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Mike Greenfield's

 

About The Rankings

These rankings are based on original algorithms developed by Mike Greenfield. Mike initially worked with College Football and College Basketball, but has since expanded the rankings to include other sports as well.

 

The central idea behind these rankings is to find a series of ratings attached to each team in such a way that together, they "make sense". There are formulae which, given two teams and their ratings, plus the location of the game, will determine the odds of either team winning the game. Thus, given a certain schedule, a team ranked at a certain level should have a certain number of wins (though margin of victory plays some role too). If the team in question has performed better than one at that level likely would, they will be ranked higher. If they've performed worse, they'll be ranked lower.

 

Essentially, the program assigns a function creating an "expected" win probability for each team in a game. In order for the rankings to be correct, it must be that a team's expected number of wins be exactly equal to its actual number of wins. This is achieved by looking at past statistics, using a variety of mathematical and statistical functions, and iterating until an equilibrium is achieved.

 

Unlike many other systems, there's no easy way to get a good ranking, other than to play well! Destroying weak teams will not boost a team's rankings, but neither will losing consistently to strong teams. One of the ideas behind these rankings is that a team should be able to be highly or lowly ranked regardless of its schedule. This is in strict contradiction to other systems (especially the RPI), which heavily penalize teams for destroying a weak opponent. In this system, destorying a weak opponent will have negligible effect in either direction.

 

The points and wins ratings are variations on this theme: points only rates teams based on scoring, wins only on whether they win or lose. However, the points rating system does place a far larger distance between, say a one-point win and a one-point loss than between a 32-point win and a 34-point win.

 

If you're looking for a predictive model, the points ratings are definitely your best bet. These are the closest to Jeff Sagarin's ratings, which, I believe, do an adequate job as a predictor, but a lousy job ranking teams based on past performances. My points ratings, however, discount blowouts far more than Sagarin's do. As a result, I believe them to be much a much better indicator of how a team will perform in close games against most other teams.

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Guest shark83

IMO,

 

Are tOSU and Michigan the 2 best teams in the nation: Absolutely.

 

Should there be a rematch? NO. UF deserves a crack at tOSU because Michigan already had a shot.

 

And if Michigan were to play tOSU again and beat them, then what would happen?

 

It would cause some serious chaos.

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don't forget OSU barley beat illinois.

 

My bad. I should have said thay beat everyone except Mich and Ill decisively. But, in their defense, they were up 17-0 at halftime, were never behind and Ill scored their last TD with 1:40 left in the game.

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IMO:

 

tOSU-The undefeated record speaks for itself

 

Michigan-Spanked us @ our field, beat Wisconsin, and only loss was 3 pts in the Horseshoe.

 

I gotcha on that.

 

I do, however, think that OSU and Michigan each played two games that were worth anything this season (Wisconsin is not that good) one at the beginning and one at the end.

 

It's real easy to get up for two games when they're that far apart.

 

And as for the first games, winning at Texas and Notre Dame is something, but this year, it's not THAT impressive.

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And I still feel that UM's win over us was blown WAY out of proportion. 21 points off of 5 turnovers. One of those TD's was on an INT off of our receivers face and run back for a TD. Another TD was on Brady's fumble that was returned 70+ yrds for a TD. We lost fair and square, I just don't think it was as dominant as the score shows or as good for UM as everyone else thinks. If you just look at the score...sure. But if you look at how the points were scored, i don't think so. Imagine this, if we don't turn the ball over, that was a 5 point game. Did they kill us or did we self destruct?

 

Same thing with OSU's win over Penn State. Everyone forgets that was a 3 point game with under 3 minutes to go in the 4th. Several pick 6's later and it looks on paper like OSU beat the tar out of PSU. Oh yeah, and golden boy Smith played like total shit in that game. You won't find any talk of that though. Defense won the game for him, but he is the miraculous one. Some might counter with the argument that our D won the MSU game for us. Until you look at the fact that Brady threw for 319 yards and 5, count them 5, TD's. As you can tell it's gonna take me awhile to get over this Heisman farce.

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Michigan...almost lost to bowling green...not that good, i'm not sold on any team this year...but if anyone says Mich dserves a shot and you dont want to gove the whole "they go thteir shot argument". Just tell them that although the NCAA and BCS only care about$$$$$$, the idea behind these bowls, in teh past and even more now witha dedicated NC, IS TO DETERMINE THE BEST TEAM. Not to award the best team and a team that might be second. While bcs bowls like the rose bowl, etc. are awards and congrats for being close to the top or whatever. the NC is for determining the NC, MIch palying would could at best prove nothing and at worst confuse the situation more. Number one team?maybe OSU...but its not mich! the way things went down this year was the perfect storm for NOT having arematch. last game, both teams knew what was up, and no time for team to show they improved or that they got worse. tell your friends that are mich fans...well first buy them some ND hats, tell them tough cookies...oh and remind them that 4 of theri nc's 1901-04 are even more BS than youll find at a rodeo...those 4 years wen to harvard, yale, princeton, and pennsylvania respectively. MIch played...and was maybe the best team in a 500 mi radius but back then the ivy leage and east coast was the real deal.

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Guest shark83
I guess I'm just not incredibly impressed with anyone this year.

Good point.

 

No one team has really dominated from Week 1 to the last week of the regular season.

 

I don't honestly know why people are writing off Florida.

 

I remember in 2002, everyone (Including myself) wrote of Ohio St. and thought there was no way they could beat the 'Canes.

 

And we saw how that one turned out....

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Guest bfabes05

I am impressed with Ohio State, and was impressed with USC until they lost to UCLA haha, seeing that they lost their whole heisman backfield and still were going to compete for a national title is impressive, but in my mind Ohio State has really been the team all year, is Michigan or Florida number 2? I dont know its hard to say you cant really say one is or one isnt cuz they both have beef that they should be number 2. Im just hoping our irish have a little shot at beating LSU :?

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Guest bfabes05
I remember in 2002, everyone (Including myself) wrote of Ohio St. and thought there was no way they could beat the 'Canes.

 

And we saw how that one turned out..

 

Great Point, that was exactly what i thought off when they picked Florida to play in the NC game against Ohio State

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Given:

Michigan = 6 of one

Florida = half a dozen of the other

 

If 6 = half dozen,

then Michigan = Florida

 

Since 6 of one does = half a dozen of the other,

therefore Michigan = Florida

 

If those two teams played 10 games against each other, chances are they'd split'em.

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