I figured Indiana deserves its own thread as we start to look at them a little more closely.

First, in my opinion, the key to the game is whether ND can run the ball. Indiana ranks 1st nationally in rushing defense, allowing only 70.8 yards/game and 2.46 yards/carry. That said, ND will be a big step up in competition.

The best rushing offense Indiana faced all year was Ohio State. Ohio State is only ranked 59th nationally in rushing offense (169.2 yards/game). They ran for 115 yards against Indiana. After that, the next best rushing offense Indiana faced was Michigan at 69th, then 93rd (Washington), 95th (Nebraska), 104th (FIU), 110th (Michigan State and Purdue), 117th (Maryland), 122nd (Northwestern), and 130th (UCLA). So, Notre Dame is a major, major step up in competition, as ND ranks 10th nationally at 224.8 rushing yards/game.

Of the teams ND has faced, the best rushing defense was Army (11th nationally, 104.0 yards/game). Like Indiana, that stat is probably inflated due to Army’s poor schedule. After Army, NIU is 20th (111.8 yards allowed/game), followed by Georgia Tech (30th, 120.2 yards allowed/game), Louisville (42nd, 135.4 yards allowed/game), and Texas A&M (49th, 137.7 yards allowed/game). So, while ND hasn’t exactly faced a murderers row, they’ve still played five defenses with Top 50 rush defenses. In those five games, ND rushed for more yards than the opposing defense’s average, with the exception of Louisville (ND only rushed for 117 yards). The others were 198 yards against A&M, 123 yards against NIU, 168 yards against Georgia Tech, and 275 yards against Army. USC has the 54th best rushing defense (140.4 yards/game), and ND rushed for 258 yards.

On offense, if Notre Dame can run the ball against Indiana, I think the offense can legitimately score 30+ points. Again, the secondary is suspect, so getting IU to be overly aggressive against the run will open up the passing game. ND’s WRs need to limit their drops, and Leonard needs to be on target and on time. Weather could be a factor.

I think the second most important factor is Notre Dame’s pass defense. They got exposed a bit against Louisville (264 yards, 3TD) and USC (360 yards, 3 TDs). Indiana has a very good passing offense, as they rank 1st nationally in passing efficiency (179.08) and 29th in passing yards per game (265.2 yards/game). USC ranks 71st in passing efficiency and 10th in passing yards per game (291.7 yards/game), and Louisville ranks 26th in passing efficiency and 20th in passing yards per game (272.4 yards/game).

So, Indiana is probably the best passing offense Notre Dame will have faced this year. And, unlike their rushing defense stats, Indiana’s passing stats don’t seem to be inflated because they have faced some really good passing defenses. However, in looking more closely at how Indiana fared against the best passing defenses they faced, they generally did not have a lot of success. The best passing defenses Indiana faced were Ohio State (4th nationally in passing efficiency defense), Washington (8th), FIU (18th), and Michigan (49th). Against those four teams, Indiana passed for 68 yards and 0 TDs (OSU), 124 yards and 1 TD (Washington, backup for IU played QB), 180 yards and 1 TD (FIU, first game of the season), and 206 yards and 2 TDs (Michigan).

On defense, if Notre Dame can limit the explosive passing plays and get some pressure on their QB (O’Rourke), it should be a good day. They have 3 good WRs, but O’Rourke loves the quick passing game. Look for ND to play press man and try to limit those easy 5-7 yard routes. The key will be for Golden to get pressure on O’Rourke. He is not a running threat at all, so ND can get some sacks and force some throws in this game.

Indiana has an average rushing attack (51st nationally in rushing at 173.6 yards/game). While rushing defense was/is ND’s weakness, they seem to have settled in during the back half of the season, as only two of the last six opponents rushed for more than their season average (USC and FSU). I think they can contain the IU running game, so the key on defense is to make O’Rourke uncomfortable in the pocket and let the secondary make some big plays.

ND has the 3rd ranked scoring defense. Against OSU (1st nationally), IU scored 15 points. The next best scoring defenses IU faced were Nebraska (18th), Michigan (24th), and Washington (46th). Indiana did well against Nebraska (56 points) and Washington (31 points), while they scored 20 against Michigan. I think ND can keep IU in the high teens/low 20s.

Notre Dame is tied for 1st nationally in turnovers gained with 28. If they can get O’Rourke to make some mistakes, Notre Dame can win this game by 10+ points.

7 minutes ago, tneun89 said:

I think the second most important factor is Notre Dame’s pass defense. They got exposed a bit against Louisville (264 yards, 3TD) and USC (360 yards, 3 TDs). Indiana has a very good passing offense, as they rank 1st nationally in passing efficiency (179.08) and 29th in passing yards per game (265.2 yards/game). USC ranks 71st in passing efficiency and 10th in passing yards per game (291.7 yards/game), and Louisville ranks 26th in passing efficiency and 20th in passing yards per game (272.4 yards/game).

So, Indiana is probably the best passing offense Notre Dame will have faced this year. And, unlike their rushing defense stats, Indiana’s passing stats don’t seem to be inflated because they have faced some really good passing defenses. However, in looking more closely at how Indiana fared against the best passing defenses they faced, they generally did not have a lot of success. The best passing defenses Indiana faced were Ohio State (4th nationally in passing efficiency defense), Washington (8th), FIU (18th), and Michigan (49th). Against those four teams, Indiana passed for 68 yards and 0 TDs (OSU), 124 yards and 1 TD (Washington, backup for IU played QB), 180 yards and 1 TD (FIU, first game of the season), and 206 yards and 2 TDs (Michigan).

On defense, if Notre Dame can limit the explosive passing plays and get some pressure on their QB (O’Rourke), it should be a good day. They have 3 good WRs, but O’Rourke loves the quick passing game. Look for ND to play press man and try to limit those easy 5-7 yard routes. The key will be for Golden to get pressure on O’Rourke. He is not a running threat at all, so ND can get some sacks and force some throws in this game.

Indiana has an average rushing attack (51st nationally in rushing at 173.6 yards/game). While rushing defense was/is ND’s weakness, they seem to have settled in during the back half of the season, as only two of the last six opponents rushed for more than their season average (USC and FSU). I think they can contain the IU running game, so the key on defense is to make O’Rourke uncomfortable in the pocket and let the secondary make some big plays.

ND has the 3rd ranked scoring defense. Against OSU (1st nationally), IU scored 15 points. The next best scoring defenses IU faced were Nebraska (18th), Michigan (24th), and Washington (46th). Indiana did well against Nebraska (56 points) and Washington (31 points), while they scored 20 against Michigan. I think ND can keep IU in the high teens/low 20s.

Notre Dame is tied for 1st nationally in turnovers gained with 28. If they can get O’Rourke to make some mistakes, Notre Dame can win this game by 10+ points.

Brilliant, BRILLIANT , did i say BRILLIANT!! Thanks @tneun89

Hope I’m not being to big of a bother @tneun89 but i’m going to evaluate 2 games worth of film and if its ok it fits here well. Michigan close IU win, Ohio State IU loss.

The 1st two yard making plays were

6 yard slant to PRICE

5 yard RPO Draw play. Rourke red the Nickel who stayed put so he handed it off. Rourke read pass to run.

You see 44 open right over the middle of the field but Michigan 72 tips the pass.

34 minutes ago, FaithInIrish Forever said:

Hope I’m not being to big of a bother @tneun89 but i’m going to evaluate 2 games worth of film and if its ok it fits here well. Michigan close IU win, Ohio State IU loss.

Absolutely need some film review here, as I focused mostly on stats. You have a better eye for watching the tape.

1 minute ago, tneun89 said:

Absolutely need some film review here, as I focused mostly on stats. You have a better eye for watching the tape.

and YOU type and analyze stats better than I do so Together its amazing.

Very similar structurally to ND’s defense 4-2-5 flex. There corners play a bit deeper.

First thing Michigan saw was off coverage. FREE YARDS. Took it with Warren to Loveland.

One thing i can say is Indiana will come to play. They will not fold over and this will be a battle to win. I love the RB Justice and he will run hard all game. Hopefully Cross is close to 100% we will need him to show up and stop the run. While they only played two teams with winning records and lost to the one team they dont play like the moment is too big for them.

I can see this coming down to a final drive to win the game and RL runs it in for the win!

Michigan loved this much free space. I think i counted that corner was 7 yards off the line of scrimmage

Decent Blitz call. But Michigan stopped themselves by changing the QB and then a high snap and then dropping the ball.

My biggest fear is that we overlook them. They are a good team. If Freeman prepares the Irish and we play our best game, we should win by 2 TDs+. If we overlook them and come not fully prepared or have an average game, it will be a dogfight.

For both teams it seems like strength and strength.

Also, I found it interesting looking through the ESPN expert picks for the playoffs. Pretty much everyone of them had either Notre Dame or Georgia going to the finals. With Notre Dame having a slight advantage. So nobody picked Notre Dame to win it all.

2 minutes ago, 97domer said:

My biggest fear is that we overlook them. They are a good team. If Freeman prepares the Irish and we play our best game, we should win by 2 TDs+. If we overlook them and come not fully prepared or have an average game, it will be a dogfight.

For both teams it seems like strength and strength.

Also, I found it interesting looking through the ESPN expert picks for the playoffs. Pretty much everyone of them had either Notre Dame or Georgia going to the finals. With Notre Dame having a slight advantage. So nobody picked Notre Dame to win it all.

very solid team indeed. Hopefully we find our best game of the year. We’ll need it. USC has more Talent. But these guys are Louisvlle with more discipline.

I do feel if Notre Dame plays their game, they will win by 14+ points!

It’s going to take them running the ball with 5+ yards per carry, Leonard taking care of the ball, playing man coverage, and getting pressure to make O’Rourke panic and force bad throws!

Can’t win the championship if you can’t win your state.

ND should win this game.

Weather forecast looks cold (high of 37 that day) but no snow; maybe a little wet. Don’t know how much, if any, of a factor it will be in this game.

Just win this game. Don’t be looking at Georgia. Please.

If we win the game we can we ask Indiana “Hoosier Daddy?”