Probability

Idea attributed to @2lakes

 

INSTRUCTIONS: INSERT YOUR PROBABILITY FOR ND TO WIN ON A SCALE OF 0-1. ADD THEM UP YOU GET YOUR PROJECTED TOTAL!

AT A&M= .6

VS NIU=1

 AT PU= .9

 VS. M(OH)=1

  vs Louis=.9

  vs Stanford= 1

   AT GTECH= .75

   AT NAVY= 1

   VS FSU.  .75 (How bout that @FSUSeminoles?)

   VS. UVA= 1

   VS ARMY=1

   @ USC. 5

TOTAL= 10.4 WINS

AT A&M= .55
VS NIU=.99
 AT PU= .99
 VS. M(OH)=.99
  vs Louis=.7
  vs Stanford= .99
   AT GTECH= .8
   AT NAVY= .99
   VS FSU=  .6 
   VS. UVA= .9
   VS ARMY= .99
   @ USC=  .5

TOTAL=9.99

AT A&M= .7
VS NIU= 1
 AT PU=  1
 VS. M(OH)= 1
  vs Louis= .75
  vs Stanford=  1
   AT GTECH= 1
   AT NAVY=  1
   VS FSU=  .6 
   VS. UVA=  1
   VS ARMY=  1
   @ USC=  .75

Total = 10.8

I have a high level of confidence, especially with the addition of Mike Denbrock to go along with Al Golden. Probably the best OC/DC combo in college football!

High confidence they win 10 games, medium confidence they win 11;  scored a 10.8 by me on your scale. 
I’m not as confident they win a playoff game, and to me it’s not a good season unless they do.  

AT A&M= .8
VS NIU= 1
AT PU=  1
VS M(OH)= 1
VS Louisville= .9
VS Stanford=  1
AT GTECH= 1
AT NAVY=  1
VS FSU=  .7
VS UVA=  1
VS ARMY=  1
AT USC=  .7

Total = 11.1

I feel Notre Dame will make it to the semifinals of the 12-Team CFP in 2024, but lose there. I do hope I’m wrong and they win it all! Go Irish!!!

A&M: 0.65

NIU: 0.95

PU: 0.85

Miami(OH): 0.95

Louisville: 0.75

Stanford: 0.90

GTech: 0.80

Navy: 1.0

FSU: 0.70

UVA: 0.90

Army: 1.0

USC: 0.80

Total = 10.25 ND likely goes 10-2, but I'm more confident in 11-1, as long as they beat A&M. Give me 11-1, home playoff game (and a win). Whether they can win their Quarterfinal (and any other playoff game) depends on the matchup.

On 8/22/2024 at 2:06 PM, tneun89 said:

A&M: 0.65

NIU: 0.95

PU: 0.85

Miami(OH): 0.95

Louisville: 0.75

Stanford: 0.90

GTech: 0.80

Navy: 1.0

FSU: 0.70

UVA: 0.90

Army: 1.0

USC: 0.80

Total = 10.25 ND likely goes 10-2, but I'm more confident in 11-1, as long as they beat A&M. Give me 11-1, home playoff game (and a win). Whether they can win their Quarterfinal (and any other playoff game) depends on the matchup.

Very nice list. We are averaging right there at about 10-2.

I am not feeling super optimistic, but I am excited nonetheless. Even bad ND football is better than no ND football. I think Freeman is a championship caliber coach, he just needs something to win those tough recruiting battles and get a complete team.

I am seeing us as a 3 point dog on quite a few betting sites now.  Started at +1.5   Thinking it has a lot to do with our young and thin Oline.

4 minutes ago, VCDomer said:

I am seeing us as a 3 point dog on quite a few betting sites now.  Started at +1.5   Thinking it has a lot to do with our young and thin Oline.

That is definitely the scary part. 7 days until we know the truth!

25 minutes ago, VCDomer said:

I am seeing us as a 3 point dog on quite a few betting sites now.  Started at +1.5   Thinking it has a lot to do with our young and thin Oline.

That’s what I saw too, and would agree it could have to do with the unknowns on the OL for Notre Dame.

Anyone else have a confidence score?

A&M: 0.45

NIU: 0.95

PU: 0.85

Miami(OH): 0.95

Louisville: 0.55

Stanford: 0.90

GTech: 0.80

Navy: 0.85

FSU: 0.55

UVA: 0.90

Army: 0.95

USC: 0.50

Total = 9.2 I want them to go undefeated each year but I just don’t see path to the playoff at this time. They’ll likely drop a close one to A&M based on the Oline and the learning curve with Denbrock’s O. Even Tyler Horka has them losing the game.  The Lou wasn’t a fluke last year and I think that will be another tough game. GT and FSU who knows after last wknd. Was GT for real is FSU that bad?  What changes for each team throughout the season?  USC in LA, a win has either team in the playoffs and loss has them in a no one cares bowl. Coin flip on who wins that one. 
 

Hopefully I’ll get back to IN for the Purdue game this year as we have tickets (wife’s being a PU grad is good for some things).