Seen some comments on CFP, Bowls, ND's chances, etc.... 

3 main areas, bolded and sized up

1. ND's post season potential, and general NY6 rules and tie-ins 
   • If top 4 - CFP semi final
     • Cotton
     • Orange
   • If 5th-12th (likely outcome)
     • Likely ND Bowls (NY6)
       • Peach - no conf tie-in, but frequent stop for SEC teams
       • Fiesta - no conf tie-in, and all over the place with confs
     • Other NY Bowls
       • Sugar has SEC/Big12 tie-in
       • Rose has Big10/PAC tie-in
     • Notes on NY6 Bowls
       • Of the 12 teams, they are required to include all P5 champions (5)
       • In addition, they are required to select the highest ranking G5 team (Group of 5) as a 6th
       • Only 9 of the 84 teams selected by the committee have been ranked worse than 12th
   • Outside the top 12, likely to an ACC tie-in bowl (ND can be selected as long as they are within 1 game of the competing ACC team)
     • Cheez-It Bowl vs. B12 - Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
     • Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. SEC - Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
     • Fenway Bowl vs. AAC - Fenway Park, Boston, MA
     • Military Bowl Presented by Peraton vs. AAC - Annapolis, Maryland
     • New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs B10 - Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
     • San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs PAC12 - 
     • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs. SEC - Petco Park, San Diego, CA
     • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl vs. PAC12 - Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
     • Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs. AAC, PAC12 or SEC - Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
     • TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl vs. SEC or AAC - Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
     • SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs. SEC or AAC or PAC12 - Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas
2. Current top 12, and big games remaining
   1. UGA - at TN, SEC Championship
      • Prediction - lose to Bama, make CFP
   2. Bama - at #17 Auburn, SEC Championship if they beat Auburn
      • Prediction - wins out, make CFP
   3. Oregon - at #24 Utah, PAC12 Championship (likely Utah again)
      • Prediction - drops one to Utah
   4. Ohio State - #19 PU, #7 MichSt, at #6 Michigan, B10 Championship (4 teams currently with 4-2 records in the B10 West)
      • Prediction - tough one, but I'll say they win out, and make the CFP
   5. Cinci - SMU, at ECU, AAC Championship (likely Houston)
      • Prediction - drops one
   6. Michigan - at PSU, OSU
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   7. Michigan State - at OSU, PSU
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   8. Oklahoma - at Baylor, ISU, at OK State, B12 Championship
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   9. Notre Dame - plays scrubs
      • Prediction - wins out ends year ranked 5th. At worst, we rank 6th and could even back slide into 4th.
   10. Oklahoma State - Oklahoma
       • Prediction - Beats OK to end regular season, loses to OK in B12 Championship
   11. Texas A&M - at LSU, SEC Championship if Bama loses to Auburn
       • Prediction - wins out, does not play in SEC Championship
   12. Wake Forest - NC State, at Clemson, ACC Championship
       • Prediction - drops one
3. Top 10 Chances of making the CFP (per ESPN)
   1. UGA 95.5% 
   2. Bama 70.2% 
   3. OK 58.6%
   4. Ohio State 58.3%
   5. Cinci 49.4%
   6. Michigan 24.8%
   7. Notre Dame 20.4%
   8. Oklahoma State 14.4%
   9. Oregon 3.5%
   10. Michigan State 1.6%
        

 

Here’s my prediction:

ND & Cincy win out.

Oregon loses to Utah

Okie loses 1-2 games

Michigan & MSU both drop 1-2 games

UGA and Bama in.

That leaves, unfortunately, OSU for the 3rd spot

With Cincy 4th playoff seed.

No way ND passes an undefeated Cincy

ND winds up 5th, playing in the Fiesta Bowl. 

5 hours ago, jimbo said:

Here’s my prediction:

ND & Cincy win out.

Oregon loses to Utah

Okie loses 1-2 games

Michigan & MSU both drop 1-2 games

UGA and Bama in.

That leaves, unfortunately, OSU for the 3rd spot

With Cincy 4th playoff seed.

No way ND passes an undefeated Cincy

ND winds up 5th, playing in the Fiesta Bowl. 

I see something similar. 
I see Georgia beating Bama in the SEC championship knocking Bama out

ND and Cincy win out. Cincy in. 
 

Oregon loses to Utah

Okie loses Baylor but that’s their only loss. 
 

Michigan and Michigan State both lose to Ohio State. Ohio State wins out. 
 

By my thinking that leaves

1. Georgia

2. Cincy

3. Ohio State

4. ND  

ND gets curb stomped by Georgia and Ohio State wins the battle of Ohio. 
Georgia wins it all. Finally there year. 

8 hours ago, OKelleyIrish said:

Seen some comments on CFP, Bowls, ND's chances, etc.... 

3 main areas, bolded and sized up

1. ND's post season potential, and general NY6 rules and tie-ins 
   • If top 4 - CFP semi final
     • Cotton
     • Orange
   • If 5th-12th (likely outcome)
     • Likely ND Bowls (NY6)
       • Peach - no conf tie-in, but frequent stop for SEC teams
       • Fiesta - no conf tie-in, and all over the place with confs
     • Other NY Bowls
       • Sugar has SEC/Big12 tie-in
       • Rose has Big10/PAC tie-in
     • Notes on NY6 Bowls
       • Of the 12 teams, they are required to include all P5 champions (5)
       • In addition, they are required to select the highest ranking G5 team (Group of 5) as a 6th
       • Only 9 of the 84 teams selected by the committee have been ranked worse than 12th
   • Outside the top 12, likely to an ACC tie-in bowl (ND can be selected as long as they are within 1 game of the competing ACC team)
     • Cheez-It Bowl vs. B12 - Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
     • Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. SEC - Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
     • Fenway Bowl vs. AAC - Fenway Park, Boston, MA
     • Military Bowl Presented by Peraton vs. AAC - Annapolis, Maryland
     • New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs B10 - Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
     • San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs PAC12 - 
     • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs. SEC - Petco Park, San Diego, CA
     • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl vs. PAC12 - Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
     • Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs. AAC, PAC12 or SEC - Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
     • TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl vs. SEC or AAC - Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
     • SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs. SEC or AAC or PAC12 - Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas
2. Current top 12, and big games remaining
   1. UGA - at TN, SEC Championship
      • Prediction - lose to Bama, make CFP
   2. Bama - at #17 Auburn, SEC Championship if they beat Auburn
      • Prediction - wins out, make CFP
   3. Oregon - at #24 Utah, PAC12 Championship (likely Utah again)
      • Prediction - drops one to Utah
   4. Ohio State - #19 PU, #7 MichSt, at #6 Michigan, B10 Championship (4 teams currently with 4-2 records in the B10 West)
      • Prediction - tough one, but I'll say they win out, and make the CFP
   5. Cinci - SMU, at ECU, AAC Championship (likely Houston)
      • Prediction - drops one
   6. Michigan - at PSU, OSU
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   7. Michigan State - at OSU, PSU
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   8. Oklahoma - at Baylor, ISU, at OK State, B12 Championship
      • Prediction - drops one or two
   9. Notre Dame - plays scrubs
      • Prediction - wins out ends year ranked 5th. At worst, we rank 6th and could even back slide into 4th.
   10. Oklahoma State - Oklahoma
       • Prediction - Beats OK to end regular season, loses to OK in B12 Championship
   11. Texas A&M - at LSU, SEC Championship if Bama loses to Auburn
       • Prediction - wins out, does not play in SEC Championship
   12. Wake Forest - NC State, at Clemson, ACC Championship
       • Prediction - drops one
3. Top 10 Chances of making the CFP (per ESPN)
   1. UGA 95.5% 
   2. Bama 70.2% 
   3. OK 58.6%
   4. Ohio State 58.3%
   5. Cinci 49.4%
   6. Michigan 24.8%
   7. Notre Dame 20.4%
   8. Oklahoma State 14.4%
   9. Oregon 3.5%
   10. Michigan State 1.6%
        

 

Outstanding work, friend! 

Aside from my poll picks.

I'm picking 

1. Bama - beats UGA barely in the SECC
2. UGA - only loss is a close one to Bama
3. OSU - wins out, not really pretty
4. OK - loses at OK State, but beats them in the B12C and gets the last spot. 

ND wins out an ends up 5th, but OK gets the nod due to a close loss on the road, and then beating OK State on a neutral field. The rest of the teams in contention lose a game.

 

2 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

Aside from my poll picks.

I'm picking 

1. Bama - beats UGA barely in the SECC
2. UGA - only loss is a close one to Bama
3. OSU - wins out, not really pretty
4. OK - loses at OK State, but beats them in the B12C and gets the last spot. 

ND wins out an ends up 5th, but OK gets the nod due to a close loss on the road, and then beating OK State on a neutral field. The rest of the teams in contention lose a game.

 

I concur, 

7 minutes ago, FaithInIrishForever said:

I concur, 

But a lot of stuff could happen. Interesting year. Got my popcorn

ND could even backslide into #4. Wouldn't take a lot for that to happen. Every team has challenges.

• Bama could lose to UGA, knocking them out.
• OK could just lose the B12C and get knocked out late. Or to Baylor.
• OSU, scUM, and MSU could all beat up on each other, and scUM and MSU both play PSU.
• Cinci just doesn't look strong right now, and I could see them losing one or two
• Oregon doesn't look great either, and just can't see them beating Utah twice. 

Just now, OKelleyIrish said:

But a lot of stuff could happen. Interesting year. Got my popcorn

ND could even backslide into #4. Wouldn't take a lot for that to happen. Every team has challenges.

• Bama could lose to UGA, knocking them out.
• OK could just lose the B12C and get knocked out late. Or to Baylor.
• OSU, scUM, and MSU could all beat up on each other, and scUM and MSU both play PSU.
• Cinci just doesn't look strong right now, and I could see them losing one or two
• Oregon doesn't look great either, and just can't see them beating Utah twice. 

Yup. Lots of football left to play!

I voted for the top 4 that I realistically see making it, not who I want to see make it.
1 - UGA..............wins out, beats Bama in SECCG.
2 - Oregon........wins out, only ranked 2nd due to beating OSU
3 - Oklahoma...wins out, a few close ones but gets the job done
4 - OSU...............Purdue almost does the unthinkable, again.  An OT win over Purdue, dominates Michigan again.  Only ranked 4th to avoid a 1st round rematch with Oregon. 

Assuming by end of season rank you meant end of regular season, not end of post season rank, I voted that they finish 6th.  I see enough teams falling in front of them to move up a few more spots.

I voted to play in an NY6 bowl, I'd love to get a good opponent but one we should beat.

What I would like to see?
1 - UGA..............wins out, beats Bama in SECCG.
3 - Oklahoma...loses to OKST but wins the B12CG
3 - Oregon........loses to Utah in OT to end season, beats Utah in PACCG
4 - ND.................wins out

OSU loses to Purdue, narrowly beats Mich State, and then throttles Michigan.  They win a very close B1GCG against Wisconsin and goes to the Rose Bowl.
Cincinnati succumbs to the pressure and loses one of their remaining games and then loses the AACCG
Alabama's loss in the SECCG gives them 2 loses, out of CFP.

Welp, one (OK) down. I predicted they'd drop one or two, and they're holding true. I still see them dropping another to OKSt or in the B12C.  ND to #8 at least assuming they take care of their business. 

PU has been a disappointment today, but either MSU or OSU will drop one next week.

TN is giving UGA a game early, but I think it's a year early for TN to pull this off. 

Maybe WSU can pull an upset on OR late tonight. I think good chance OR drops one next week at Utah regardless. 

Overall, the worst will be ND at #7 after next week. Closer, and closer.. lol

3 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

Welp, one (OK) down. I predicted they'd drop one or two, and they're holding true. I still see them dropping another to OKSt or in the B12C.  ND to #8 at least assuming they take care of their business. 

PU has been a disappointment today, but either MSU or OSU will drop one next week.

TN is giving UGA a game early, but I think it's a year early for TN to pull this off. 

Maybe WSU can pull an upset on OR late tonight. I think good chance OR drops one next week at Utah regardless. 

Overall, the worst will be ND at #7 after next week. Closer, and closer.. lol

I've turned off the OSU Purdue game in favor of the GA TN game.  Normally I would be pulling hard for the upset but it will be better for ND to ensure UGA wins out and gives Alabama another loss.  Would be great for Alabama to slip up against Auburn but I don't see that happening.

27 minutes ago, NYGoldenDomer said:

I've turned off the OSU Purdue game in favor of the GA TN game.  Normally I would be pulling hard for the upset but it will be better for ND to ensure UGA wins out and gives Alabama another loss.  Would be great for Alabama to slip up against Auburn but I don't see that happening.

A TN win means it's an elimination game in the SECC though. A UGA win over TN just means there's still a good chance we see both UGA and Bama get in. I'll take the TN win all day every day. UGA's just too strong though. TN has had some great upsets over UGA in the past, but don't see it happening today. Headed in the right direction for sure though under JH.

38 minutes ago, OKelleyIrish said:

A TN win means it's an elimination game in the SECC though. A UGA win over TN just means there's still a good chance we see both UGA and Bama get in. I'll take the TN win all day every day. UGA's just too strong though. TN has had some great upsets over UGA in the past, but don't see it happening today. Headed in the right direction for sure though under JH.

I feel an undefeated UGA and a 2 loss Alabama has a better chance of having Bama left out of the CFP than both of them being 1 loss teams.  

Minnesota at Iowa is coming down to the wire. Though Minn is on 4th down with under 2:30 left

Edited November 13, 20213 yr by NDhoosier

25 minutes ago, NYGoldenDomer said:

I feel an undefeated UGA and a 2 loss Alabama has a better chance of having Bama left out of the CFP than both of them being 1 loss teams.  

You either have a situation where only 1 can get in, or a situation where both can possibly get in.

I'll take the situation where only 1 gets in all day every day.

UGA having a loss or not doesn't impact their ability to beat Bama. It does impact the conferences chances of getting a second team in.