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Number 8 & the myth of georgia loss bad for ND


hawaiiirish

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We are now sitting at #8 the top spot for one loss teams,,,including Georgia who drops to 11.

 

I got very tired of hearing during the game yesterday about how BAD the Georgia loss was to our playoff chances. Frankly that's just ridiculous and flows from some sketchy calculations about your opponents records being paramount above all else.

 

Georgia is now 2 spots behind us after beating us...I would be pissed as a Georgia fan,,, nonetheless rooting for teams ahead of us to WIN and how we benefit from that is just nonsensical.

 

Yes sometimes in the last week or so...when 2 teams are competing with similar records a win or loss by a common opponent or something similar can be meaningful..

 

But midseason ,,, sitting where we are,,,if you still HOLD OUT faint hopes of getting to the playoffs just ROOT FOR EVERYTEAM AHEAD OF US TO LOSE....the more losses get distributed the better and how our opponents do is FAR LESS of a factor.

 

Between one announcer telling us Georgias loss really hurts us,,,while at the same time FLUTIE just seems to ROOT OUTRIGHT for USC...was just something I didn't need from our own Tv network,,,,and its NOT TRUE!!

 

Proof, we are #8 and we now hold a slight edge over the Georgia team. How is that BAD????

 

Our chances for the playoffs are LOW overall but not missing in action....all we need is losses and more losses in any order in any way from the seven teams above us....that gives us the best chance to move into that 4th spot.

 

aloha

Edited by hawaiiirish
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There are three guaranteed losses to be added to the 7 teams above ND.

 

Alabama/LSU

 

Ohio St/Penn St

Ohio St/Wisconsin

 

In addition, the loser of the Big 10 conf championship will add a loss which will probably be one of the three of Wisc, Penn St, or Ohio St.

 

Teams 1 to 7 will also play 10 more games against teams currently ranked.

 

So 4 losses for sure plus 10 more "tough" games which should result in at least 2 more losses.

 

Things need break just right and it would help a lot if Michigan can beat Ohio St and Penn St. Minnesota beating Wisconsin and then losing to Michigan would also help.

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I really feel like we have no shot at the playoffs, but I'll play along. The only chance we have is for the Big12 (Oklahoma) to completely crap the bed. Even then the chances of us getting a spot over a second SEC team seems very slim. The loser of Bama/LSU and the loser of the SEC Championship would both need to lose again. In this respect Hawaii might be right about UGA's loss not being all bad. IMHO there are just too many teams ahead of us (for the spot, not in the polls) that could suffer a loss and still bump us.

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I don’t want any part of the playoff. If you’ve watched college football with an objective view, you’d be able to tell LSU, Bama, OU and OSU are a notch above us. Do you really want to see a repeat of the Clemson game? Book is a liability when we play good teams.

 

Another embarrassment and we’ll be forced to join a conference or just ignored by the committee. This defense isn’t good enough to beat a top 5 team, let alone with Book.

 

The good news is we can finally win a BCS bowl if we get the right matchup. Penn State, Auburn, Florida, Oregon and Texas would all be winnable games.

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There is a big flaw in your thinking Hawaii. These polls you speak of mean nothing! The fact that these polls even exist dupe people into thinking they matter.

 

The only poll that matters will come out Nov. 5 by the selection committee. then we will see how Nd is valued. If they only have 1 loss on nov. 5, we will get a good sense of how the committee views them by where they place them in relation to other 1 loss teams.

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We are now sitting at #8 the top spot for one loss teams,,,including Georgia who drops to 11.

 

I got very tired of hearing during the game yesterday about how BAD the Georgia loss was to our playoff chances. Frankly that's just ridiculous and flows from some sketchy calculations about your opponents records being paramount above all else.

 

Georgia is now 2 spots behind us after beating us...I would be pissed as a Georgia fan,,, nonetheless rooting for teams ahead of us to WIN and how we benefit from that is just nonsensical.

 

Yes sometimes in the last week or so...when 2 teams are competing with similar records a win or loss by a common opponent or something similar can be meaningful..

 

But midseason ,,, sitting where we are,,,if you still HOLD OUT faint hopes of getting to the playoffs just ROOT FOR EVERYTEAM AHEAD OF US TO LOSE....the more losses get distributed the better and how our opponents do is FAR LESS of a factor.

 

Between one announcer telling us Georgias loss really hurts us,,,while at the same time FLUTIE just seems to ROOT OUTRIGHT for USC...was just something I didn't need from our own Tv network,,,,and its NOT TRUE!!

 

Proof, we are #8 and we now hold a slight edge over the Georgia team. How is that BAD????

 

Our chances for the playoffs are LOW overall but not missing in action....all we need is losses and more losses in any order in any way from the seven teams above us....that gives us the best chance to move into that 4th spot.

 

aloha

 

If you have only 1 loss and it is early in the season (as ND's is) and you win out, your chances can't be thought of as slim and none. The 7 reams ahead all have games, as Hawaii, said that will knock off some of them with a late season loss.We still have hope, but can ill afford a slip up And so we say: "Notre Dame, Our Mother, Pray for Us."

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While acknowledging that there are a few scenarios that play out differently, ESPN's playoff predictor basically summarizes ND's chances as:

 

An 11-1 Notre Dame will be behind any 13-0 or 12-1 conference championship winners and in front of any one loss teams who do not win their conference championship games.

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While acknowledging that there are a few scenarios that play out differently, ESPN's playoff predictor basically summarizes ND's chances as:

 

An 11-1 Notre Dame will be behind any 13-0 or 12-1 conference championship winners and in front of any one loss teams who do not win their conference championship games.

 

If you buy in to what ESPN is selling, then it is a moot point because ESPN’s FPI has ND going 10 – 2.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

 

Team

Notre Dame, FBS Indep.

 

W-L

5-1

 

Proj W-L

10.0 - 2.0

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If you buy in to what ESPN is selling, then it is a moot point because ESPN’s FPI has ND going 10 – 2.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

 

Team

Notre Dame, FBS Indep.

 

W-L

5-1

 

Proj W-L

10.0 - 2.0

 

The two are completely compatible. There is probably only a 15% chance of ND making the playoffs. The number one factor is that there is a decent probability that the Irish will lose one or more games immediately taking them out of the running. There is probably something like a 60-70% chance of ND winning the Michigan game. The other games will be easier but there are still 6 games to play that will each have some chance for an Irish loss.

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While acknowledging that there are a few scenarios that play out differently, ESPN's playoff predictor basically summarizes ND's chances as:

 

An 11-1 Notre Dame will be behind any 13-0 or 12-1 conference championship winners and in front of any one loss teams who do not win their conference championship games.

 

I dont agree with this fully. If LSU has 1 loss to Bama and dont win their division they will still be ahead of us

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While acknowledging that there are a few scenarios that play out differently, ESPN's playoff predictor basically summarizes ND's chances as:

 

An 11-1 Notre Dame will be behind any 13-0 or 12-1 conference championship winners and in front of any one loss teams who do not win their conference championship games.

 

If LSU’s only loss is to an unbeaten SEC champ Alabama, ND will not be ahead of them.

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You both are wrong. We arent guaranteed to get in if we win out, not by a longshot. Its more than likely we wont. BUT there is a path for us to get in. It will take some chaos but ita possible

 

Please elaborate on this path, because you are clearly smoking crystal meth. Our most impressive win was a loss....to a team that just lost to an unranked SoCar....

 

Not to mention $hitting the bed the last 2 times we were inexplicably invited despite not having a conference title to play for...

 

Yeah I need to hear about this path.....and if the answer is "Georgia winning the SEC" you can just go ahead and stop there.

Edited by echo88
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Please elaborate on this path, because you are clearly smoking crystal meth. Our most impressive win was a loss....to a team that just lost to an unranked SoCar....

 

Not to mention $hitting the bed the last 2 times we were inexplicably invited despite not having a conference title to play for...

 

Yeah I need to hear about this path.....and if the answer is "Georgia winning the SEC" you can just go ahead and stop there.

 

I would say it has nothing to do with Georgia winning the SEC. Although, that would help. A lot of teams ahead of ND have to play each other. ND keeps winning and teams start falling off you are looking at and leap frogging slot of team. Crap, they are 8th right now. Just three more losses and they are at 5 waiting to jump to 4. The real question is how will the committee rank ND?

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