I was going to write this after signing day but decided to write it now for discussion.

 

I don't look at recruiting as a pure ranking 1, 2, 3, 4,...etc. I usually see the final results in 4 tiers of quality and this often does follow along with the rankings to some degree. However, the difference between a team being ranked 4th and 5th could be one player and 0.10 or less on the 247 composite recruiting scale. Essentially those classes are identical in quality.

 

I break the overall rankings down two ways: the overall average player rating and how many expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys). Obviously this is subjective.

 

Looking at the current rankings based on overall average player rating my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Alabama, Clemson and USC

 

Tier 2: PSU, Miami, Oklahoma, ND, Auburn, Washington, FSU, Florida, LSU

 

Tier 3: Michigan, UCLA, Tennessee, A&M, Oregon, South Carolina

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

Looking at the current rankings based on expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys) my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Clemson

 

Tier 2: ND, FSU, PSU, Miami, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC

 

Tier 3: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, UCLA

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

A factor not accounted for is a teams needs. I don't know the needs of every team thus have no clue if others met their needs.

 

Onto ND and where they sit. I think we all saw how an engaged DC can improve recruiting immensely. This current class is/was very close to being a Tier 1 class. If ND could add NPF, Tuliaupupu, and Irvin then ND is at the top of the Tier 2 class and almost Tier 1. Then imagine upgrading Paul Moala and one of the OL to a basic 4*. That would put ND at the Miami and PSU level with more expected difference makers. In most years, I think this is the best ND can expect to do but they can/need do it more regularly.

 

Now, looking at the 2019 class. This is a class that ND needs to hit on. This class has "ND type" kids all over and they are interested in ND. Every few years there will be a class like this and ND must start winning the battles with Stanford along with beating Bama/Clemson/OSU here and there for higher academic kids. NDs 2019 class could look very similar to OSU's class this year, not quite that level but a large amount of mid to high 4* players. Also, ND can address needs at DE, CB and S in this class. This class seems like it will be very important to ND and the level they want to achieve.

Edited January 29, 20187 yr by Big23Head

I was going to write this after signing day but decided to write it now for discussion.

 

I don't look at recruiting as a pure ranking 1, 2, 3, 4,...etc. I usually see the final results in 4 tiers of quality and this often does follow along with the rankings to some degree. However, the difference between a team being ranked 4th and 5th could be one player and 0.10 or less on the 247 composite recruiting scale. Essentially those classes are identical in quality.

 

I break the overall rankings down two ways: the overall average player rating and how many expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys). Obviously this is subjective.

 

Looking at the current rankings based on overall average player rating my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Alabama, Clemson and USC

 

Tier 2: PSU, Miami, Oklahoma, ND, Auburn, Washington, FSU, Florida, LSU

 

Tier 3: Michigan, UCLA, Tennessee, A&M, Oregon, South Carolina

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

Looking at the current rankings based on expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys) my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Clemson

 

Tier 2: ND, FSU, PSU, Miami, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC

 

Tier 3: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, UCLA

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

A factor not accounted for is a teams needs. I don't know the needs of every team thus have no clue if others met their needs.

 

Onto ND and where they sit. I think we all saw how an engaged DC can improve recruiting immensely. This current class is/was very close to being a Tier 1 class. If ND could add NPF, Tuliaupupu, and Irvin then ND is at the top of the Tier 2 class and almost Tier 1. Then imagine upgrading Paul Moala and one of the OL to a basic 4*. That would put ND at the Miami and PSU level with more expected difference makers. In most years, I think this is the best ND can expect to do but they can/need do it more regularly.

 

Now, looking at the 2019 class. This is a class that ND needs to hit on. This class has "ND type" kids all over and they are interested in ND. Every few years there will be a class like this and ND must start winning the battles with Stanford along with beating Bama/Clemson/OSU here and there for higher academic kids. NDs 2019 class could look very similar to OSU's class this year, not quite that level but a large amount of mid to high 4* players. Also, ND can address needs at DE, CB and S in this class. This class seems like it will be very important to ND and the level they want to achieve.

 

Irvin named his top 3 on twitter and ND wasnt in it

Irvin named his top 3 on twitter and ND wasnt in it

 

I realize that. Those examples were saying if ND could land those type of guys, who were/are realistic guys, that's how things could look for ND. As opposed to picking some random or far fetched players.

I was going to write this after signing day but decided to write it now for discussion.

 

I don't look at recruiting as a pure ranking 1, 2, 3, 4,...etc. I usually see the final results in 4 tiers of quality and this often does follow along with the rankings to some degree. However, the difference between a team being ranked 4th and 5th could be one player and 0.10 or less on the 247 composite recruiting scale. Essentially those classes are identical in quality.

 

I break the overall rankings down two ways: the overall average player rating and how many expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys). Obviously this is subjective.

 

Looking at the current rankings based on overall average player rating my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Alabama, Clemson and USC

 

Tier 2: PSU, Miami, Oklahoma, ND, Auburn, Washington, FSU, Florida, LSU

 

Tier 3: Michigan, UCLA, Tennessee, A&M, Oregon, South Carolina

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

Looking at the current rankings based on expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys) my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Clemson

 

Tier 2: ND, FSU, PSU, Miami, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC

 

Tier 3: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, UCLA

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

A factor not accounted for is a teams needs. I don't know the needs of every team thus have no clue if others met their needs.

 

Onto ND and where they sit. I think we all saw how an engaged DC can improve recruiting immensely. This current class is/was very close to being a Tier 1 class. If ND could add NPF, Tuliaupupu, and Irvin then ND is at the top of the Tier 2 class and almost Tier 1. Then imagine upgrading Paul Moala and one of the OL to a basic 4*. That would put ND at the Miami and PSU level with more expected difference makers. In most years, I think this is the best ND can expect to do but they can/need do it more regularly.

 

Now, looking at the 2019 class. This is a class that ND needs to hit on. This class has "ND type" kids all over and they are interested in ND. Every few years there will be a class like this and ND must start winning the battles with Stanford along with beating Bama/Clemson/OSU here and there for higher academic kids. NDs 2019 class could look very similar to OSU's class this year, not quite that level but a large amount of mid to high 4* players. Also, ND can address needs at DE, CB and S in this class. This class seems like it will be very important to ND and the level they want to achieve.

 

Like your Model. Like you said or I interpreted ND won't have enough high 4 star qualifiers every year to have an Alabama like class.

 

4 and 5 stars are the highest rate of expected difference makers. The lower the star the longer the shot.

 

Teams with the most expected difference makers it follows then are the best teams.

 

That's why the best ND and Stanford can expect is top 15 most years. But if we take the Expected Difference makers from places like Stanford over a period of time, they are top 25 and we become top 5. If they take from us they become top 5 and we become top 25.

 

We also need to know whatever program is struggling like FSU was and take Advantage. We got Griffith that way and got Lenzy back that way. Will Fuller came that way too.

 

Really Good Model.

I was going to write this after signing day but decided to write it now for discussion.

 

I don't look at recruiting as a pure ranking 1, 2, 3, 4,...etc. I usually see the final results in 4 tiers of quality and this often does follow along with the rankings to some degree. However, the difference between a team being ranked 4th and 5th could be one player and 0.10 or less on the 247 composite recruiting scale. Essentially those classes are identical in quality.

 

I break the overall rankings down two ways: the overall average player rating and how many expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys). Obviously this is subjective.

 

Looking at the current rankings based on overall average player rating my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Alabama, Clemson and USC

 

Tier 2: PSU, Miami, Oklahoma, ND, Auburn, Washington, FSU, Florida, LSU

 

Tier 3: Michigan, UCLA, Tennessee, A&M, Oregon, South Carolina

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

Looking at the current rankings based on expected difference makers are in the class (high 4* to 5* guys) my tiers would be:

 

Tier 1: OSU, UGA, Texas, Clemson

 

Tier 2: ND, FSU, PSU, Miami, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC

 

Tier 3: Auburn, LSU, Florida, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, UCLA

 

Tier 4: everyone else

 

A factor not accounted for is a teams needs. I don't know the needs of every team thus have no clue if others met their needs.

 

Onto ND and where they sit. I think we all saw how an engaged DC can improve recruiting immensely. This current class is/was very close to being a Tier 1 class. If ND could add NPF, Tuliaupupu, and Irvin then ND is at the top of the Tier 2 class and almost Tier 1. Then imagine upgrading Paul Moala and one of the OL to a basic 4*. That would put ND at the Miami and PSU level with more expected difference makers. In most years, I think this is the best ND can expect to do but they can/need do it more regularly.

 

Now, looking at the 2019 class. This is a class that ND needs to hit on. This class has "ND type" kids all over and they are interested in ND. Every few years there will be a class like this and ND must start winning the battles with Stanford along with beating Bama/Clemson/OSU here and there for higher academic kids. NDs 2019 class could look very similar to OSU's class this year, not quite that level but a large amount of mid to high 4* players. Also, ND can address needs at DE, CB and S in this class. This class seems like it will be very important to ND and the level they want to achieve.

 

Excellent stuff Big. Next year's class has the chance to be special like you mentioned. Like most years, ND needs to win on the field to make it happen. Win 10+ games again, and we should see it happen. The reason we struggle to consistently get the top notch classes is the lack of consistency. Can't follow up 10+ wins with 8 or less wins.

 

Next year's schedule is tough, but winning 10+ should always be attainable and it is just an excuse to say the schedule was "too tough". Go Irish!

If you are high second tier consistently and can keep you players for 4/5 years and develop them well, you can make the playoffs every now and then, which is really all ND should expect with their recruiting requirements

Excellent stuff Big. Next year's class has the chance to be special like you mentioned. Like most years, ND needs to win on the field to make it happen. Win 10+ games again, and we should see it happen. The reason we struggle to consistently get the top notch classes is the lack of consistency. Can't follow up 10+ wins with 8 or less wins.

 

Next year's schedule is tough, but winning 10+ should always be attainable and it is just an excuse to say the schedule was "too tough". Go Irish!

 

This is exactly what I was going to say LVI. We need consistency on the field. If you win they will come does mean exactly that. Having a 10 win season every 3-4 years isn't keeping us in the minds of top recruits as a strong program. Ten wins should be the floor and not the ceiling.

If you are high second tier consistently and can keep you players for 4/5 years and develop them well, you can make the playoffs every now and then, which is really all ND should expect with their recruiting requirements

 

Funny how Clemson has managed to make the playoffs every year rather than "every now and then" even though their recruiting was no better than ND's.

If you win they will come does mean exactly that. Having a 10 win season every 3-4 years isn't keeping us in the minds of top recruits as a strong program. Ten wins should be the floor and not the ceiling.

 

Abso-frickin-lutely.

Good stuff as usual Big. I also think position droughts over a few cycles, such as what we experienced at DB for example, are killers when you look at recruiting class ranks and season outcomes. If you at least land one stud 4* at a position each year, you can still have a strong position group on the field at the same time e.g. 1 Sr, 2 Jrs and 1 Soph.

This is exactly what I was going to say LVI. We need consistency on the field. If you win they will come does mean exactly that. Having a 10 win season every 3-4 years isn't keeping us in the minds of top recruits as a strong program. Ten wins should be the floor and not the ceiling.

 

Yeah, consistency never hurts and ND has been anything but that in the last four years.

Funny how Clemson has managed to make the playoffs every year rather than "every now and then" even though their recruiting was no better than ND's.

 

The difference between Clemson and ND is pretty simple.

 

They get elite defensive linemen every year. ND gets them every now and then.

 

They get 5* players are various spots, ND struggles with this.

 

They nailed QB with Deshaun Watson.

 

If you put Deshaun Watson on ND this year, they make the playoffs.

 

Look at what they did vs. Bama with and without Watson. A Heisman caliber QB can make that type of difference. ND needs one.

The difference between Clemson and ND is pretty simple.

 

They get elite defensive linemen every year. ND gets them every now and then.

 

They get 5* players are various spots, ND struggles with this.

 

They nailed QB with Deshaun Watson.

 

If you put Deshaun Watson on ND this year, they make the playoffs.

 

Look at what they did vs. Bama with and without Watson. A Heisman caliber QB can make that type of difference. ND needs one.

 

The main difference is they actually stepped up their recruiting in the past 3-5 years. NDs hasn't been on the same level for the last several years. Clemson will take more lower rated guys than Bama and OSU, but they last 2-3 five star guys every year now. Pretty much what you stated.

 

Like Big said, the way NDs class is right now, if they landed Irvin, NPF and Solo it is right up there in that lower upper tier. Unfortunately, they will be lucky to land one of them.

 

Throw in a St. Brown and you have yourself a class on par with those elite programs with 2 consensus five stars. Obviously, they didn't land them so it is moot point, but ND will finish in the top 2 with all of them minus Irvin...but Irvin was silent commit a day before early signing period. He was going to be in this class...

 

Gotta start landing these kids, but regardless this class is still a step in the right direction and 2019 "should" be even better.