I started noticing a shocking number of 3-star recruits that we've been getting these past few years

 

Taken from 24/7's aggregate ranker, elite talent (4/5 star recruits) usually made up, on average, about 63% of the class. There were some large deviations like in 2010, where only 30% of the recruits were "elite" and then in 2008 and 2013 where the elite talent comprised 87% and 83% of their respective classes

 

Usually, the rule of thumb is 4+ star players + upper-classman (Junior to 5th year) usually equals GOOD THINGS

 

From 2016 to the current class of 2018, 4-star recruits have comprised about 46% of the class (and no 5-stars; last 5-stars were in 2013 with Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield)

 

So in 2019 and 2020, when the 2016 recruits are seniors, we may yet again be looking at a Freshman/Sophomore laden team. That's assuming that recruiting picks up in 2019 and 2020

 

If recruiting doesn't pick up, look forward to 7-6 seasons

We never got many elite guys under bk but the shocking thing to me over the last few years is the rating of the bottom of our classes. Commits who are ranked lower then 400 have exploded in recent years. There are exceptions of course but many of those guy don't reach a level where they can compete.

I mean alot of that will depend on who stays and who leaves. But Okay...

ND and I are at a "Crossroads". I feel like I am a fairly typical ND loyalist and fan, but...

I think ND is about to lose a large part of its previously dedicated fan-base, unless they start winning more games.

They are about to become irrelevant to recruits because they have done almost nothing during the recruits' lifetimes, but even as importantly ND has done almost nothing during the recruits' parents' lifetimes. One championship after 1977. An 18 year-old's parents may have been born in the 1970's, too young to remember the good teams of the 1960's or early 1970's, maybe too young to really remember the 1977 team.

A team with only one championship in 40 years, and that championship happening 30 years ago, well, that's a program that may not be relevant to an 18 year-old high school senior.

The campus is beautiful, the facilities are pretty darned good (but other programs have better facilities), and the ND degree may be worth something, but don't count on the lure of a championship pedigree.

 

I graduated from ND and have been a fan since my childhood long ago. But I'm about to become more a fan of the local team (TCU) than of ND. I'm just tired of waiting. TCU is in the 'here and now', has better coaches, and has been much more relevant over the last 20 years than ND. Sigh. Sad but true.

 

If ND is about to lose me, an alumnus, as an ardent fan of the team, then I suspect they are about to lose many many more. Recent posts on DD only reinforce this notion. Of course as an alum I would/will always remain loyal to ND, but my football enthusiasm may just shift elsewhere. Not yet, but may soon. A crossroads.

I mean alot of that will depend on who stays and who leaves. But Okay...

 

It isn't worth my time to look up all of the data points, but you can extrapolate existing statistics on underclassmen leaving in the draft / transferring in the last seven years to figure out what the number looks like. The trend in the Kelly era certainly appears to be get out as quick as possible.

Main reason why we are going to be mediocre is strength of schedule.

 

Look at the schedule the next few years. Nobody schedules that type of schedule anymore. Impossible to recruit players good enough year in year out to withstand that level of play on a weekly basis.

I mean alot of that will depend on who stays and who leaves. But Okay...

 

Well obviously...there are a ton of factors, but I'm looking at the macro level

 

Like I said, a good rule of thumb for success are a 4-star laden recruiting class and upper-class laden teams

Well obviously...there are a ton of factors, but I'm looking at the macro level

 

Like I said, a good rule of thumb for success are a 4-star laden recruiting class and upper-class laden teams

 

You are probably right but if we are gonna look a head why not start with next year.

ND and I are at a "Crossroads". I feel like I am a fairly typical ND loyalist and fan, but...

I think ND is about to lose a large part of its previously dedicated fan-base, unless they start winning more games.

They are about to become irrelevant to recruits because they have done almost nothing during the recruits' lifetimes, but even as importantly ND has done almost nothing during the recruits' parents' lifetimes. One championship after 1977. An 18 year-old's parents may have been born in the 1970's, too young to remember the good teams of the 1960's or early 1970's, maybe too young to really remember the 1977 team.

A team with only one championship in 40 years, and that championship happening 30 years ago, well, that's a program that may not be relevant to an 18 year-old high school senior.

The campus is beautiful, the facilities are pretty darned good (but other programs have better facilities), and the ND degree may be worth something, but don't count on the lure of a championship pedigree.

 

I graduated from ND and have been a fan since my childhood long ago. But I'm about to become more a fan of the local team (TCU) than of ND. I'm just tired of waiting. TCU is in the 'here and now', has better coaches, and has been much more relevant over the last 20 years than ND. Sigh. Sad but true.

 

If ND is about to lose me, an alumnus, as an ardent fan of the team, then I suspect they are about to lose many many more. Recent posts on DD only reinforce this notion. Of course as an alum I would/will always remain loyal to ND, but my football enthusiasm may just shift elsewhere. Not yet, but may soon. A crossroads.

 

We all threaten to leave, but it is an idle threat. Most "dedicated" college football fans or sports fans in general find it really difficult to switch allegiance barring some kind of major occurrence that shake their underlying fundamental understanding of things. Example: Penn State fans during the Sandusky scandal.

 

Most of us might slow our spending on merchandise, maybe DVR more games than we watch live, participate less on this board (as has been happening more over the past 5 years) but by and large most of us will have an extremely tough time "switching" allegiance. Maybe it is just me? I think it is all idle threat honestly.

 

The sad reality is that NCAA football is a business. It is not a passion for the university, is a revenue stream and a means by which they can provide a quality education to a student who might otherwise not be able to get one (if we are truly as altruistic as we all like to believe). But at the end of the day as a business unit, Notre Dame football performed well. Tickets sold, merchandise flew off the shelves, the brand remained in the spotlight through all 12 (13) weeks. The team won enough and convincingly enough to keep people watching the 12th game of the season. They were still in the playoff hunt until the very end, though we all know that it was a foregone conclusion they were out after they lost to Miami.

 

We can all **** and moan all we want, Lord knows I do, but at the end of the day Kelly is a good business decision. The payout for the Camping World bowl is 2.75 million (Or at least from what I read) whereas a New Years Day bowl is 4 million. 1.25 million dollar difference, but Kelly makes about 1.7 million a year vs top 10 coaches who all make north of 5 million a year. So you are looking at a 3.5 million dollar revenue difference right there.

 

Obviously the financial caveat comes from winning playoff games, which only a handful of coaches seem to be able to do reliably and they all make more than 6 million a year. There are a lot of numbers that factor into all of this, but our opinions probably aren't involved.

 

That said, the ND brand is not suffering under Kelly (anymore) the way it did previously. The bar is pretty gosh darn low for Kelly when you get right down to it. This season bent us out of shape bad, but I had already spent the money on that freaking 33Trucking hat by the time everything went south and I am sure most of you did too.

 

I could write a 50 page essay on this but I am not going to do more as it frustrates me. Suffice to say the ND financial team executed like a playoff team even if the football team did not.

You are probably right but if we are gonna look a head why not start with next year.

 

If the rule of thumb holds, next year should be a decent year, all things being equal

 

We've had pretty good recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015. And to be fair, A LOT of the 2016 class is MORE than contributing to the team

We all threaten to leave, but it is an idle threat. Most "dedicated" college football fans or sports fans in general find it really difficult to switch allegiance barring some kind of major occurrence that shake their underlying fundamental understanding of things.

 

Right, and as I mentioned I will always be loyal to ND.

 

However, the last few years I have more or less planned my Saturdays during football season around ND football. Next year I may find myself planning my Saturdays around TCU football instead, watching for ND score to flash on the jumbotron at TCU. Maybe buy purple gear instead of blue and gold. Maybe not enter the lottery for ND home game tickets.

 

If I'm feeling this way, I know many others are too. And, since it has been such a prolonged dry spell, there are probably fewer fans "in the pipeline" than in years past, fewer "potential" fans for the years to come because ND has lost its luster and relevance.

 

ND can rely on 'gimmicks' to achieve financial prosperity. Negotiate a new TV deal. Increase the prices of tickets and merchandise. Charge more for Cokes in the stadium. But in the long run it is the product on the field that will drive cash flow, and with each passing year that product loses more of its golden shine.

Right, and as I mentioned I will always be loyal to ND.

 

However, the last few years I have more or less planned my Saturdays during football season around ND football. Next year I may find myself planning my Saturdays around TCU football instead, watching for ND score to flash on the jumbotron at TCU. Maybe buy purple gear instead of blue and gold. Maybe not enter the lottery for ND home game tickets.

 

If I'm feeling this way, I know many others are too. And, since it has been such a prolonged dry spell, there are probably fewer fans "in the pipeline" than in years past, fewer "potential" fans for the years to come because ND has lost its luster and relevance.

 

ND can rely on 'gimmicks' to achieve financial prosperity. Negotiate a new TV deal. Increase the prices of tickets and merchandise. Charge more for Cokes in the stadium. But in the long run it is the product on the field that will drive cash flow, and with each passing year that product loses more of its golden shine.

 

I feel you man. I used to plan my weekends around ND games and will only forego watching a game at home for important occasions (e.g. Had two weddings to go to for the WF and Miami games this year)

 

Used to get into fights with the wife over this but she has since accepted it; she still subtly guilty trips me though. But the past few years, I've been thinking it's not worth the guilt trips, the stress, the heart-break, etc...I'm gonna go back to enjoying my Fall weekends and just look at the score on my ESPN app.

 

For instance, I decided to go out this past Saturday night and show around my friend who's in town from Japan. I saw the score to the Stanford game, said, "figures" and knocked back a drink and proceeded on with my night. No heightened blood pressure, no coarse voice...just drunk fun

If the rule of thumb holds, next year should be a decent year, all things being equal

 

We've had pretty good recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015. And to be fair, A LOT of the 2016 class is MORE than contributing to the team

 

Have you looked at the schedule for next year

 

AND who in the 2016 class is making major contributions?

Have you looked at the schedule for next year

 

AND who in the 2016 class is making major contributions?

 

Yup, 2018 looks just as brutal, that's why I said decent. Like an 8-5 or 9-4 record

 

Here's who's making a contribution from the Class of 2016:

 

Tommy Kraemer

Daelin Hayes

Chase Claypool

Khalid Kareem

Troy Pride Jr.

Julian Okwara

Tony Jones Jr.

Jalen Elliot

Julian Love

Devin Studstill

Ian Book

Kevin Stepherson

Deon McIntosh

 

I honestly hope that wasn't rhetorical because all of the players above are making MAJOR contributions to the team this year; it was actually pretty obvious as you hear their names called every week. And these are just mop-up minutes (well maybe Ian Book); these are actual vital minutes in games

I noticed the "recruit 3 star guys n coach em up" problem he had like 7 years ago. It has to do with his ego. He wont play the creative game of appealing to elite kids.

 

He simply saunters into their living room, yanks his dockers down, takes a huge sh|t while telling them its from bath n body works...and then expects parents to ask him to regale everyone with stories of how cool winning titles at GVSU was...

 

Oh and if you dont wanna play for him, the 6th or 7th best player on your team who has 3 offers from Akron, Bowling Green, and Tulsa will take your place...

Yup, 2018 looks just as brutal, that's why I said decent. Like an 8-5 or 9-4 record

 

Here's who's making a contribution from the Class of 2016:

 

Tommy Kraemer

Daelin Hayes

Chase Claypool

Khalid Kareem

Troy Pride Jr.

Julian Okwara

Tony Jones Jr.

Jalen Elliot

Julian Love

Devin Studstill

Ian Book

Kevin Stepherson

Deon McIntosh

 

I honestly hope that wasn't rhetorical because all of the players above are making MAJOR contributions to the team this year; it was actually pretty obvious as you hear their names called every week. And these are just mop-up minutes (well maybe Ian Book); these are actual vital minutes in games

 

Sorry, I got the years mixed up and thought you meant the 2017 class

Sorry, I got the years mixed up and thought you meant the 2017 class

 

all good mah dude

 

We can all **** and moan all we want, Lord knows I do, but at the end of the day Kelly is a good business decision. The payout for the Camping World bowl is 2.75 million (Or at least from what I read) whereas a New Years Day bowl is 4 million. 1.25 million dollar difference, but Kelly makes about 1.7 million a year vs top 10 coaches who all make north of 5 million a year. So you are looking at a 3.5 million dollar revenue difference right there.

 

 

I know we're never going to find out how much he makes annually because we're private, but we have to be paying Brian Kelly north of 4 million annually, right? I mean that's supposedly why he flirted with the NFL.. to get more money and I don't blame him. Why would someone coach here for 2.3 million less than what Lovie Smith is probably getting from Illinois.

Yup, 2018 looks just as brutal, that's why I said decent. Like an 8-5 or 9-4 record

 

Here's who's making a contribution from the Class of 2016:

 

Tommy Kraemer

Daelin Hayes

Chase Claypool

Khalid Kareem

Troy Pride Jr.

Julian Okwara

Tony Jones Jr.

Jalen Elliot

Julian Love

Devin Studstill

Ian Book

Kevin Stepherson

Deon McIntosh

 

I honestly hope that wasn't rhetorical because all of the players above are making MAJOR contributions to the team this year; it was actually pretty obvious as you hear their names called every week. And these are just mop-up minutes (well maybe Ian Book); these are actual vital minutes in games

 

Yup 8-5 or 9-4 Sounds about right

There is a problem speculating on next year being another 9 win season....

 

This year the collective starts on the OLINE were very high , led by TWO guys expected to go first round...

 

The QB was a Top 50 recruit a very high 4 star with two years on preparation under his belt

 

We have a great stable of RBs led by 1000 rusher Adams and a couple of fast Florida backs...

 

We have several 4 star receivers and a full plate at TE

 

We have a talented DC that has revamped the defense so it gets some QB pressure and does not give up many BIG PLAYS---

 

FRANKLY this team at MID SEASON seemed to have EVERYTHING necessary to make the playoffs

 

 

And yet----9 wins and nobody on this site is taking bets we beat our bowl rival and go 10/3 instead of 9/4 losing our last 3 games against decent teams.....

 

What am I saying???

 

I sincerely doubt we will be able to make the same talent assessment next year as we can this year...

 

I doubt next years team will have MORE to hang its hat on then this years team

 

I very much DOUBT we can hope for anything better then 9 wins and should FULLY EXPECT to fall short of 9 wins...

 

If 9 and 4 is all we can get out of the team we saw dismantle USC and 6 straight opponents with only a single point loss to a TOP TEAM

 

IF 9-4 IS ALL WE GET FROM THIS YEARS TEAM....how can we really expect to even reach that mark next season.

 

its just a tough situation

 

aloha

The one caveat to that is the defence may be stronger next season. Losing Morgan will hurt, losing Greer won’t hurt much and every one that matters will be back bigger stronger and faster

 

Having a weaker o-line means the 0 has to be more balanced. Can’t do RTDB all next year. Need the QB to make the short passing a bigger part of the offence

 

Can win 10 games next year with a great D a balanced O and a big improvement in SPECIAL TEAMS