First off we are going to assume the Big 10 and SEC will have a one loss champ. I also don't think any conference is eliminated yet, if Washington is 12-1 will we get in over them? TCU can run the table, if not would we make it over a one loss OU or TCU? Clemson running the table will get in over us I believe.

 

If memory serves me correct the committee values big wins over 'good losses'. Assuming we run the table there is a very real possibility we have no wins over ranked teams. There's a good bet for 2-3 teams around 15-25 but I don't think we will have anything near a top ten win.

 

1 loss teams I'm sure would get in over us- Bama, Georgia, PSU, OSU, Clemson.

 

1 loss teams that might get in over us- Washington, OU, Wisconsin, TCU.

 

I'm calling fiction, there is still lots that needs to happen for us to make the playoff. We still need our wins to keep winning to make us look better and we likely need to keep killing teams. I get we are a big draw but one loss Clemson and Ohio States will get the benefit of the doubt. I'm not so sure of our odds over one loss Pac 12, Big 12 and assuming the SEC loser has one loss.

 

Verdict- Fiction... for now

I'd say at this point, fiction.

 

But college football has a way of sorting itself out. Last year there were only four 0 or 1 loss teams. The two previous years there were only six.

 

As you alluded to, too much has to do with how ND's opponents fare from here on out.

 

11-1 with wins over Pac 12 Champ USC, ACC Champ NC State and Big 10 champ Mich St? In.

 

11-1 with 1 ranked win? Out.

 

But I think that is the same with every team. Only undefeated team truly control their own destiny at this point.

I honestly think the Pac-12 is out of it. Washington and Washington State are the only remaining one-loss teams, but neither has a great SOS. Washington State could potentially have wins over Stanford, USC and Washington, plus a win in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but I don't think that would be enough to get in over an 11-1 Notre Dame team.

 

The Big Ten will get a team in barring an epic collapse. Penn State and OSU are obviously the favorites. A 12-1 Penn State or OSU would get in over ND. (Wisconsin won't get in over ND if they are 12-1, even if they win the Big Ten Championship Game and lose in the regular season. Their SOS is awful, and the win over OSU or Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game would be their only Top 25 win). I actually don't think either a one-loss Penn State or OSU would have as strong of a resume as ND top to bottom, but they would have big wins over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game and, in OSU's case, Penn State - two Top 5 wins. If Penn State loses on Saturday, they would still have wins over Michigan and Michigan State, plus the Big Ten Championship Game over undefeated Wisconsin, but they would need OSU to lose again to even get there. I would put 12-1 Penn State and 12-1 OSU over 11-1 ND.

 

The only one-loss team in the ACC that would get in ahead of ND would be Clemson at 12-1. ND pretty much controls its own destiny because it would have head-to-head wins over Miami and NC State, the top two teams in the ACC right now. Clemson would have wins over Virginia Tech, Auburn, Louisville (doesn't look as good now), and NC State, plus the ACC Championship Game. A one-loss Virginia Tech team would only have wins over West Virginia, Miami, and the ACC Championship Game, so I think Clemson is the only threat. ND needs Clemson to drop another game.

 

The Big 12 might be the hardest conference to judge. I really don't know if a one-loss TCU or Oklahoma would get in over ND. I definitely don't think Oklahoma State would given their bad non-conference schedule. But, the Big 12 champion could potentially have wins over two Top 10 teams, and in Oklahoma's case, Ohio State in Columbus. I think 12-1 Oklahoma gets in over ND. I don't think 12-1 TCU would get in, though.

 

SEC is for sure getting one team in. The question is whether they get two. If Alabama loses in the SEC Championship game, I think they would get in, even though I don't think they would deserve it. Their best win right now is Texas A&M. Their other wins would be LSU, Miss State, and Auburn. Georgia would have wins over ND, Miss State, and Auburn. I think 12-1 Alabama for sure gets in over ND. I also think 12-1 Georgia would get in over ND as well. So, ND needs Georgia to lose twice - once in the regular season and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The Committee doesn't care about good losses - so I don't think it really matters what Georgia does the rest of the way.

 

Potential one-loss team rankings:

 

1. Alabama (12-1)

2. Ohio State (12-1)

3. Penn State (12-1)

4. Georgia (12-1)

5. Oklahoma (12-1)

6. Clemson (12-1)

7. Notre Dame (11-1)

8. TCU (12-1)

9. Oklahoma State (12-1)

10. Washington State (12-1)

 

ND needs: Georgia to lose twice, Clemson to lose a game, and the Big 12 to beat each other up - most importantly, Oklahoma needs to drop another game.

Fact!

 

 

We know that five of those teams play each other and losses will occur. making ND rise without even playing a game.

Then we know ND's schedule it's tough. Also, ND may knock off a couple of the conference champs along the way.

 

Then you look at the teams schedules that could possibly lose only one game and yet win their conference and ND kills all their schedules.

 

Fact

Too much nuance to accurately predict at this point. For the SEC, if UGA is 12-0 and Bama is 12-0 coming into the conference title game

 

a) a close game would likely get both in

 

b) a blowout and the loser is definitely eliminated

 

in other words, its more than just Ws and Ls, its also how badly a team loses or wins

 

for this reason, NDs 1 point LOSS looks pretty damn good - if that same game is a blowout, we are in bad shape

FIZACT, Yo

Right now it's fiction but the Big Ten Network and ESPN think we are in should we win out. This is the most fun time of the year. I will watch Stanford hoping they beat Oregon State, USC over Arizona State and any team we have beaten such as BC. I will watch Navy. But we have a great chance to make this FACT this weekend. Should we take care of business and teams like TCU, Oklahoma, Clemson and Penn State go down (and they well all could). Then we are IN.

Fact...

 

Win out and the Irish are in...strength of schedule is to high.

Fact...

 

Win out and the Irish are in...strength of schedule is to high.

 

Yeah it always seems that way at some point but how will SOS look in 7 weeks? You think MSU and USC will be ranked come seasons end? I can't see all 3 of NCSU, Miami, and Stanford being ranked either.

 

Our schedule is not as tough as it seems, NC State and Miami are frauds waiting to be exposed by the Irish.

 

I'm not so sure our wins are going to stack up come the final committee meeting, I think we're gonna need some teams to lose. We won't have the top ten win or anything like that but we might have beaten 8-9 bowl teams.

Yeah it always seems that way at some point but how will SOS look in 7 weeks? You think MSU and USC will be ranked come seasons end? I can't see all 3 of NCSU, Miami, and Stanford being ranked either.

 

Our schedule is not as tough as it seems, NC State and Miami are frauds waiting to be exposed by the Irish.

 

I'm not so sure our wins are going to stack up come the final committee meeting, I think we're gonna need some teams to lose. We won't have the top ten win or anything like that but we might have beaten 8-9 bowl teams.

 

I don't disagree with anything you've said really. I don't think our SOS will blow anyone away because we most likely won't have a Top 10 win, but it will still be solid. There could be 4 or 5 teams that finish in the Top 25.

 

USC: I know they looked AWFUL on Saturday, but they are still a good football team and have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. Remaining games against Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA. None of those game will be easy wins, but USC could/should sweep. If they finish 10-2, they will be in the Pac-12 Championship Game and potentially the Pac-12 Champs. They'd be sitting around the Top 10. That 49-14 point drubbing will look really good. Even if they drop one of the remaining four games, they would still be 9-3 and could still win the Pac-12 depending on how everything shakes out. Still a Top 25 team.

 

Michigan State: I completely agree - they are a fraud. Very lucky to be 6-1. I watched the Indiana game and they should have lost. Remaining schedule: Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland and Rutgers. They will almost definitely lose to PSU and OSU. If they can win the other 3, they'd finish a respectable 9-3. Probably still a Top 25 team given their 3 losses were all against Top 10 teams. I don't think they are a good team, but they might look good on paper. Still a good chance they finish in the Top 25.

 

Miami: Miami is very lucky to be undefeated - they could have lost their last two games to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. I think the voters know that since they are #8 behind two one-loss teams. But the remaining schedule is pretty easy: UNC, Virginia Tech, ND, UVA, and Pitt. They will probably drop the game against Virginia Tech, but if they win the other 3, they're still 10-2. That would be a great win on the road. They'd probably finish around Top 10-15.

 

NC State: I think NC State is a lot better than people think. I know they haven't played anyone, but their defense is very solid up front. After ND, they have to play Clemson, BC, Wake, and UNC. They get Clemson at home, but even if they lose, they're still 9-3 and a Top 25 team.

 

Stanford: I have heard some in the media say Stanford is a dark horse CFP contender if they win out. Obviously, a lot would have to happen, but the main thing is that they are still respected and thought of as a good football team. They have a tough schedule: Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, and Cal before they play us. A 9-3 Stanford team is still ranked in the Top 20 (they are #20 now). They would have won the Pac-12 North and could win the Pac-12 Championship. If they drop one of the other games, they are 8-4. They could still be ranked in the Top 25. A win in Palo Alto will look good, even if they drop a game to one of the Washington schools. Probably a fringe Top 25 team.

 

ND might not have any great wins, but they could end up having 4 or 5 solid Top 25 wins on their resume, with wins against potentially one or two Top 15/Top 10 teams.

Please everyone stop alluding to scenarios that include Michigan St winning the Big Ten. There is absolutely no chance that is going to happen. I would honestly be shocked if they beat either PSU or OSU, but they are definitely not running the table vs those two and then Wisconsin in the championship game.

I don't disagree with anything you've said really. I don't think our SOS will blow anyone away because we most likely won't have a Top 10 win, but it will still be solid. There could be 4 or 5 teams that finish in the Top 25.

 

USC: I know they looked AWFUL on Saturday, but they are still a good football team and have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. Remaining games against Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA. None of those game will be easy wins, but USC could/should sweep. If they finish 10-2, they will be in the Pac-12 Championship Game and potentially the Pac-12 Champs. They'd be sitting around the Top 10. That 49-14 point drubbing will look really good. Even if they drop one of the remaining four games, they would still be 9-3 and could still win the Pac-12 depending on how everything shakes out. Still a Top 25 team.

 

Michigan State: I completely agree - they are a fraud. Very lucky to be 6-1. I watched the Indiana game and they should have lost. Remaining schedule: Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland and Rutgers. They will almost definitely lose to PSU and OSU. If they can win the other 3, they'd finish a respectable 9-3. Probably still a Top 25 team given their 3 losses were all against Top 10 teams. I don't think they are a good team, but they might look good on paper. Still a good chance they finish in the Top 25.

 

Miami: Miami is very lucky to be undefeated - they could have lost their last two games to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. I think the voters know that since they are #8 behind two one-loss teams. But the remaining schedule is pretty easy: UNC, Virginia Tech, ND, UVA, and Pitt. They will probably drop the game against Virginia Tech, but if they win the other 3, they're still 10-2. That would be a great win on the road. They'd probably finish around Top 10-15.

 

NC State: I think NC State is a lot better than people think. I know they haven't played anyone, but their defense is very solid up front. After ND, they have to play Clemson, BC, Wake, and UNC. They get Clemson at home, but even if they lose, they're still 9-3 and a Top 25 team.

 

Stanford: I have heard some in the media say Stanford is a dark horse CFP contender if they win out. Obviously, a lot would have to happen, but the main thing is that they are still respected and thought of as a good football team. They have a tough schedule: Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, and Cal before they play us. A 9-3 Stanford team is still ranked in the Top 20 (they are #20 now). They would have won the Pac-12 North and could win the Pac-12 Championship. If they drop one of the other games, they are 8-4. They could still be ranked in the Top 25. A win in Palo Alto will look good, even if they drop a game to one of the Washington schools. Probably a fringe Top 25 team.

 

ND might not have any great wins, but they could end up having 4 or 5 solid Top 25 wins on their resume, with wins against potentially one or two Top 15/Top 10 teams.

 

Yeah looking at those schedules it seems likely they all could end up in the top 25 actually. USC worries me cause they are so injured, MSU if they just win what they should would be 9-3 and ranked.

 

Stanford might lose to Washington but I still feel they will be the toughest game, and there is no way they can make the playoff with that SDSU loss. NC State and Miami should be top 20 based solely on how weak the ACC is. I think the ACC is below the Big 12 this year, I've watched TCU who is legit and I'd take them over Clemson.

 

So on second thought the SOS might turn out better than I thought.

Fiction. TCU, Penn State, and Bama or Georgia winning out with a 1 loss Bama, Georgia, and/or Clemson and ND is left out at 11-1.

 

If Georgia or Bama blow the other out that may change. Need to be rooting for TCU, Penn State, and Clemson losses.

ND will NOT be left out at 11-1 --scenarios have to be tortured to find a way---the real story is IF we go 11-1, that's a BIG IF, we absolutely will go

 

I hope we are still discussing this next week

 

aloha

Yeah it always seems that way at some point but how will SOS look in 7 weeks? You think MSU and USC will be ranked come seasons end? I can't see all 3 of NCSU, Miami, and Stanford being ranked either.

 

Our schedule is not as tough as it seems, NC State and Miami are frauds waiting to be exposed by the Irish.

 

I'm not so sure our wins are going to stack up come the final committee meeting, I think we're gonna need some teams to lose. We won't have the top ten win or anything like that but we might have beaten 8-9 bowl teams.

 

The problem with this argument is that this holds true for almost every team and their SOS. The Big 10 and Big 12 could all have multiple losses that water down their SOS’s as well. Same with the Clemson and all the PAC 12.

 

Don’t act like this is just a problem for ND. This type of scenario can potentially affect nearly everyone except bama.

 

All we have to do is get to 11-1 and I’m pretty sure we will get in with all of the other teams still playing each other and weakening SOS’s.

These scenarios are always fun to chew on, but we all know that every year strange dominos fall, especially in the final month of the season. Granted, ND could be one of those, but if we manage to win out, *some* team (probably more than one) above us is going to get upset and open the door. Account for that and the fact that a few top ten teams will eliminate each other, and I’ve talked myself into the FACT camp.

The other thing to consider is that the committee uses more than just wins/losses and opponents. How you win/lose those games has merit as well. Game control, offensive metrics, defensive metrics etc. ND is 5th is scoring margin so far. They have a top offense and a top defense. They've blown out everyone they've beaten.

 

Clemson is 14th in scoring margin. Wisconsin 9th. Oklahoma 15th. Mami 21st. NC St 26th. Oklahama St. 12th. TCU 13th.

 

That matters to a degree as well. If ND goes out and wins every game by 50 points, of course they are in. If they win every game by 1 on a last second FG, then they are probably out.

 

Also, I understand that ND's schedule might flame out, but as of now, going by Massey Composite, they'll play 6 of the top 19 teams in the country. If you beat 5 top 19 teams and go 11-1, you should be in. For reference, at this point, Alabama has ZERO scheduled games vs a top 19 opponent. Auburn at 20th is the highest. Obviously they'll likely play Georgia, but that isn't certain yet.

Edited October 26, 20177 yr by corysold

The other thing to consider is that the committee uses more than just wins/losses and opponents. How you win/lose those games has merit as well. Game control, offensive metrics, defensive metrics etc. ND is 5th is scoring margin so far. They have a top offense and a top defense. They've blown out everyone they've beaten.

 

Clemson is 14th in scoring margin. Wisconsin 9th. Oklahoma 15th. Mami 21st. NC St 26th. Oklahama St. 12th. TCU 13th.

 

That matters to a degree as well. If ND goes out and wins every game by 50 points, of course they are in. If they win every game by 1 on a last second FG, then they are probably out.

 

Also, I understand that ND's schedule might flame out, but as of now, going by Massey Composite, they'll play 6 of the top 19 teams in the country. If you beat 5 top 19 teams and go 11-1, you should be in. For reference, at this point, Alabama has ZERO scheduled games vs a top 19 opponent. Auburn at 20th is the highest. Obviously they'll likely play Georgia, but that isn't certain yet.

 

SOS also has to be taken into account with margin of victory. Wisconsin has beaten no one.

Wisconsin's schedule is laughable really. How can they get that easy of a schedule in a strong conference like the B1G?

Wisconsin's schedule is laughable really. How can they get that easy of a schedule in a strong conference like the B1G?

 

Because it isn't THAT strong.

ND will NOT be left out at 11-1 --scenarios have to be tortured to find a way---the real story is IF we go 11-1, that's a BIG IF, we absolutely will go

 

I hope we are still discussing this next week

 

aloha

 

Me too, Hawaii!