That's our chances to make the playoffs according to nate silver's

fivethirtyeight

 

given all the football left and the 5 teams ahead of us and the 4 spot

 

that's likely good math on our chances

 

A win against NC state and another loss above us and those odds will obviously improve

 

but for right now--we have a nice chance---but still a long shot

 

I would speculate if we are 9-1 ,THATS IF, after Miami those odds will rise to 50%

 

aloha

That's our chances to make the playoffs according to nate silver's

fivethirtyeight

 

given all the football left and the 5 teams ahead of us and the 4 spot

 

that's likely good math on our chances

 

A win against NC state and another loss above us and those odds will obviously improve

 

but for right now--we have a nice chance---but still a long shot

 

I would speculate if we are 9-1 ,THATS IF, after Miami those odds will rise to 50%

 

aloha

 

Pretty optimistic that this team has it in them given we stay healthy.

100 percent chance of alley whipping USC.

 

I am happy.

I listen to a lot of the Big Ten Network since Notre Dame doesn't have a network. They basically say we are in if we run the table. I really think Georgia Tech has a great chance to beat Clemson this week.

I will be surprised if we're not favored for every game but Miami.

I will be surprised if we're not favored for every game but Miami.

 

I thought the most recent ESPN percentage data showed that Notre Dame was the favorite for every game except the Stanford game, which was listed as 50/50.

Nate Silver is a joke. I mean, that dude lost ALL credibility in the last election. Why he didn't lose credibility sooner? We just weren't paying attention. Print out his predictions, crumple them up, and toss them in the garbage... I'm serious. The dude is a joke.

Nate Silver is a joke. I mean, that dude lost ALL credibility in the last election. Why he didn't lose credibility sooner? We just weren't paying attention. Print out his predictions, crumple them up, and toss them in the garbage... I'm serious. The dude is a joke.

 

Honest question on why you think that. He said Clinton had like a 65-70% chance.

 

Seems reasonable. He seemed to be the predictor stating Trump had more of a shot than others like the NYT.

 

Back to football. PSU beating OSU would be very helpful.

Honest question on why you think that. He said Clinton had like a 65-70% chance.

 

Seems reasonable. He seemed to be the predictor stating Trump had more of a shot than others like the NYT.

 

Back to football. PSU beating OSU would be very helpful.

 

If you watched him constantly, the dude was all over the place but was mainly in the tank for Clinton. Even if we stick with 65%-70% chance of victory for Clinton, is that even remotely close if he had the true pulse of the electorate? 65%-70% based on what we saw on TV would make sense, but if he was truly in touch with all the variables, he would've been closer to 50/50... I don't know...I wrote that guy off in about July or August of last year based on his Twitter account.

 

I guess he would claim they're just probabilities, but probabilities should still be somewhat accurate and very little changed in the lead up to the race. You could argue Comey reopening the case was influential, but it really wasn't, because the same storyline persisted about Clinton the entire year, whether the case was opened or closed. People already had their narrative about Clinton written internally.

 

A good statistician would be able to eliminate bias, especially personal bias, and I just don't see it from him. A good example is the professor who has predicted every President for decades. He predicted Trump light years before anybody else would say Trump could be President without chuckling...and he was right. The guy has an accurate method.

 

I hate to say it, but I was rooting for Michigan last week...

If you watched him constantly, the dude was all over the place but was mainly in the tank for Clinton. Even if we stick with 65%-70% chance of victory for Clinton, is that even remotely close if he had the true pulse of the electorate? 65%-70% based on what we saw on TV would make sense, but if he was truly in touch with all the variables, he would've been closer to 50/50... I don't know...I wrote that guy off in about July or August of last year based on his Twitter account.

 

I guess he would claim they're just probabilities, but probabilities should still be somewhat accurate and very little changed in the lead up to the race. You could argue Comey reopening the case was influential, but it really wasn't, because the same storyline persisted about Clinton the entire year, whether the case was opened or closed. People already had their narrative about Clinton written internally.

 

A good statistician would be able to eliminate bias, especially personal bias, and I just don't see it from him. A good example is the professor who has predicted every President for decades. He predicted Trump light years before anybody else would say Trump could be President without chuckling...and he was right. The guy has an accurate method.

 

I hate to say it, but I was rooting for Michigan last week...

 

Not to sidetrack the discussion, but i guess I see 60-70 percent in line with what the popular vote ended up being. and 60-70% still means 30-40 chance of the other way. Again, he just seemed far more accurate than many of the others, which is why i was curious why you pointed him out. Then again he is the most notable one. .

What if Georgia defeats Alabama?

 

Everyone has such a hard-on for Alabama this year, what if the only team to beat us beats Alabama?

 

Do the committee then start to select between either us or Alabama? That'd be bad for us I'd imagine.

 

Meanwhile, 2 other spots will go to garbage teams that haven't played anyone and certainly not close the schedule we played.

 

I struggle to imagine that the playoff committee would have Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and then just 1 other conference. Though if Penn State is the only undefeated team beside Georgia and Alabama and Notre Dame's only loss is to Georgia....maybe.

What if Georgia defeats Alabama?

 

Everyone has such a hard-on for Alabama this year, what if the only team to beat us beats Alabama?

 

Do the committee then start to select between either us or Alabama? That'd be bad for us I'd imagine.

 

Meanwhile, 2 other spots will go to garbage teams that haven't played anyone and certainly not close the schedule we played.

 

I struggle to imagine that the playoff committee would have Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and then just 1 other conference. Though if Penn State is the only undefeated team beside Georgia and Alabama and Notre Dame's only loss is to Georgia....maybe.

 

In that scenario I can see it coming down to how much Georgia beat Alabama by. At this point, Alabama is going to play 3 ranked teams the rest of the way. That's assuming LSU and Auburn stay ranked the rest of the season. They could only have 1 ranked win on their resume if they lose to Georgia. Could you really put them in ahead of ND, who might have 4-5 ranked wins, a closer loss to Georgia and similar domination of bad teams?

Not to sidetrack the discussion, but i guess I see 60-70 percent in line with what the popular vote ended up being. and 60-70% still means 30-40 chance of the other way. Again, he just seemed far more accurate than many of the others, which is why i was curious why you pointed him out. Then again he is the most notable one. .

A lot of people do not understand how predictive analytics and statistics work.

A lot of people do not understand how predictive analytics and statistics work.

 

I'd say around 68% do not.

I'd say around 68% do not.

 

And 73.6 percent of all statistics are made up: http://www.businessinsider.com/736-of-all-statistics-are-made-up-2010-2

 

For reference, ND has a 20 percent chance of winning out, while even Alabama at the top of the heap has only a 39 percent chance of winning out, so you have to take it for what you will.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

 

The sour news is that if Alabama beats Georgia and Penn State and Clemson win out, we are likely out in the cold. We won't leapfrog a one loss Georgia team that beat us, Clemson, or a Penn State team that beats Ohio state. So anyone that thinks that a one loss ND team won't get left out is living in their own private Idaho.

And 73.6 percent of all statistics are made up: http://www.businessinsider.com/736-of-all-statistics-are-made-up-2010-2

 

For reference, ND has a 20 percent chance of winning out, while even Alabama at the top of the heap has only a 39 percent chance of winning out, so you have to take it for what you will.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

 

The sour news is that if Alabama beats Georgia and Penn State and Clemson win out, we are likely out in the cold. We won't leapfrog a one loss Georgia team that beat us, Clemson, or a Penn State team that beats Ohio state. So anyone that thinks that a one loss ND team won't get left out is living in their own private Idaho.

 

The Notre Dame/Georgia dynamic could be very interesting. Which is more important, head to head or overall strength of schedule? Georgia would have two ranked wins at this point. ND could have 5 depending on how things end up. Is a one point win enough to overcome 3 fewer quality wins? That would be very interesting to see, especially as they might not want two teams from what is a weaker SEC this year.

The Notre Dame/Georgia dynamic could be very interesting. Which is more important, head to head or overall strength of schedule? Georgia would have two ranked wins at this point. ND could have 5 depending on how things end up. Is a one point win enough to overcome 3 fewer quality wins? That would be very interesting to see, especially as they might not want two teams from what is a weaker SEC this year.

 

It is an interesting dynamic for sure. The real wrinkle is if Georgia beats Alabama does Alabama get in over ND, and the likely answer is yes. If Georgia loses there is still a fair chance they get in above ND unless they absolutely get whipped.

 

The moral of this story is the only way ND can punch it's ticket to the playoffs is to win every game. As it stands now their fate is in the hands of others.

I'm still bitter about 1993, so if I'm consistent with my criteria, then a 1-loss Georgia gets in over us. Strength of schedule? I don't see UGA's being much easier than ours -- at least not enough to make a difference to the committee.

 

As much as I want to say that ND running the table is enough, we may have to bank on a current undefeated team losing 2 games.

 

And Hillary didn't even garner 49% of the popular vote. I know it was even less for Trump, but those "predictive" stats were anything but...

What if:

 

Nevermind on the BigXII.

 

I think the PAC-12 title game will be USC vs Stanford and USC will still win the PAC-12. We'll have wins against both anyway but it will be another 2 loss champion.

 

Now suppose Miami beats Clemson for the ACC title with us already beating Miami.

 

I mean, it's a long shot for ALL of this to happen this season but the chances of each happening are actually pretty good individually.

Edited October 24, 20177 yr by Green Goblin

What if:

 

Nevermind on the BigXII.

 

I think the PAC-12 title game will be USC vs Stanford and USC will still win the PAC-12. We'll have wins against both anyway but it will be another 2 loss champion.

 

Now suppose Miami beats Clemson for the ACC title with us already beating Miami.

 

I mean, it's a long shot for ALL of this to happen this season but the chances of each happening are actually pretty good individually.

 

How about Michigan St. wins the Big 10. Notre Dame wins out. Auburn beats Alabama and Georgia to win the SEC. Georgia Tech beats Georgia. Miami wins the ACC and TCU stays unbeaten in the Big 12.

 

That gives you:

 

Notre Dame

Miami

TCU

Michigan St

 

I'd like our chances!!

How about Michigan St. wins the Big 10. Notre Dame wins out. Auburn beats Alabama and Georgia to win the SEC. Georgia Tech beats Georgia. Miami wins the ACC and TCU stays unbeaten in the Big 12.

 

That gives you:

 

Notre Dame

Miami

TCU

Michigan St

 

I'd like our chances!!

Christ, can you imagine the chaos that would erupt if Auburn won the SEC? :becky:

 

Let's assume Georgia goes undefeated but loses the SEC championship game. You would have 1 loss Auburn, 1 loss Georgia, 1 loss Bama, 1 loss Notre Dame, undefeated TCU, 1 loss Michigan State, 1 loss Miami.

 

In that case, I would think/hope Bama would be the one getting the screw job. If Georgia and Auburn play in the championship game, Bama shouldn't be rewarded (again) for not even reaching the championship game in their own conference while Georgia would be punished for that as well.

 

It would make zero sense and set an absolutely horrific precedent from an athletics standpoint.