So before we get 2 excited about what likely will be a 5-1 start with only a 1 point loss to a top 5 team......

 

Before we start wondering if our # 21 rank is fair....

 

Before we start looking at playoff scenarios

 

Take a look at how the teams in the second half of our schedule are doing

 

First half of the schedule teams are 15 wins 14 losses and that's skewed by a 5-0 Georgia

 

the teams we will have beaten (including UNC) are

 

10 wins and 14 losses

 

 

The last six teams we play are 22-5 with a tough Stanford team lowering the count with 2 losses

 

USC--4-1

NCstate--4-1

Miami---3-0

Wake forest--4-1

Navy----4-0

Stanford--3-2

 

 

Bottom line....EVEN AFTER WE BEAT UNC AND GO TOP 20 AND 5-1

 

WE HAVE PROVEN NOTHING YET!!!

 

The second half is as tough a schedule as anybody's last 6

 

We could LOSE 4 of those games and end in a disappointing 7-5 calling for Kelly.s head again

 

We could win all 6 and IMHO PLAYOFF BOUND NO DOUBT!

 

We haven't beaten anybody good in a LONG LONG TIME.....

 

ODDS of winning all 6 EXTREMELY LOW

 

Team gets a great start at 5-1 with a buy

 

BUT

 

THE SECOND HALF IS FILLED WITH BOTH OBSTACLES AND OPPORTUNITIES...

 

I am going to enjoy this start,,,, but I know this

 

THE STORY OF THIS TEAM WILL BE WRITTEN IN THE LAST 6 GAMES!!

 

aloha'a

I don't see any of these teams stopping Adams and Dex, my only concern is either of these guys getting injured. If we lose one or both we could very well go 3-3 to end the final 6 games but with these guys I see us running the table as our ceiling and going 4-2 as the floor.

 

The team has flaws but we are very good in the trenches and have the best 1-2 combo in college football. When you can play good defense and run the ball like we can it's gonna be tough to beat us.

I wonder how many of those wins are vs winning teams?

 

Miami beat Duke. USC over Stanford. Any other big wins out of that group? NC St over FSU.

Good. ND needs every opportunity it can get to beat winning teams, that's the only way to earn respect and potentially a New Yr Bowl game. I saw ESPN writers were projecting them to either play in the Pinstripe Bowl or the Camping World Bowl.

With all due respect, this is one of the easiest schedules ND has had in years. If Wimbush can learn to throw, we should win out. I would bet that Vegas favors us for every game.

With all due respect, this is one of the easiest schedules ND has had in years. If Wimbush can learn to throw, we should win out. I would bet that Vegas favors us for every game.

 

Don't get too far ahead. USC still has Sam Darnold, who can rip apart any Secondary and ND still has to go on the road at Stanford, who is still a good team.

I saw this at NDNation

 

First halves of the season in the Kelly Era:

 

2010 3-3

2011 4-2

2012 6-0

2013 4-2

2014 6-0

2015 5-1

2016 2-4

 

30-12

 

(71% winning percentage)

 

Second Half:

 

2010 5-2

2011 4-3

2012 6-1

2013 5-2

2014 2-5

2015 5-2

2016 2-4

 

29-19 (60% winning percentage)

 

The big outlier was 2014 when we collapsed after losing to FSU.

Edited October 1, 20177 yr by Frankus

Don't get too far ahead. USC still has Sam Darnold, who can rip apart any Secondary and ND still has to go on the road at Stanford, who is still a good team.

 

It's going to be really interesting to see how our pass defense does vs USC. I was surprised to see that Darnold has thrown 8 interceptions already this year after having thrown only 9 in 13 games last year.

They are 22-5 sure, but all of those teams but USC haven't beaten anyone good and even USC's good win doesn't look as good yet. I think this looks good for ND to go 11-1/10-2. We might be lousy but I don't think anyone is way better that we play.

I think cautionary optimism is called for UNTIL we actually BEAT a good team....well MSU likely is a good team---but we need to beat a RANKED TEAM before we can even think 11 wins....

 

Remember maybe the 22-5 doesn't have great wins throughout but WE HAVEN"T BEATEN BETTER

 

UCLA

TEXAS

ARIZONA STATE

FLORIDA STATE

STANFORD

CAL

 

all took losses against our remaining schedule

 

I fully expect a BIG WIN next week....

 

BUT AS SO MANY SEASONS GO IT WILL BE USC THAT'S GOING TO DEFINE OUR SEASON

 

Win that and the sky's the limit

 

Lose to them and .......well you know

 

1st half of the season showed we can run over weak teams very decisively---it showed we have the balance to beat a decent 2nd or 3rd tier team like MSU---

 

2nd half will show if we have the roster & coaches to compete and win at a top 10 top 15 level

 

The bye is great --the start is excellent--- the JURY IS STILL OUT!

 

aloha

First half showed me we will beat teams who we have more talent than, the way we have beaten teams is why the second half doesn't scare me.

 

People don't realize how loaded this team is, there is 4 stars everywhere and experienced players everywhere.

 

Stanford, USC, and Miami are the only teams with talent that can match us. Difference this year is we actually have the coaching advantage and were developing guys. Worst case we lose these and go 8-4.

 

I expect us to be favoured in all of them as well. I see a decisive win vs USC, that team is so banged up and weak in the trenches it's surprising. We will push USC around but hope Utah doesn't beat them before we do because those wheels are gonna fall off and they'll have 4 or 5 losses.

 

If I had to pick a loss for us it would be Stanford.

When it comes to the playoffs, it doesn't matter if we go 11-1. There is no way we make it in.

 

Here is why:

Clemson will be in from the ACC. Even if they lose a game, if they win the ACC they will be in. I don't see them losing though.

Bama or Georgia will be in from the SEC. The SEC will have one team in for sure.

PSU, Mich, or OSU will be in from the BIG 10. No way in hell that the B1G doesn't get one team in.

This leaves us fighting against the Big 12 winner and the PAC 12 winner. Obviously, if Okla or Wash goes undefeated they are in. No brained there. But even if both of the winners have one loss each there isn't any chance ND gets voted in over two power conf teams. No way.

 

Now that doesn't mean 11-1 isn't deserving, but it just means he system isn't going to let us. We have to be undefeated or have a bunch of teams with one or two losses to jump them.

 

Further, I still think it is a big stretch we go 11-1.

 

The big outlier was 2014 when we collapsed after losing to FSU.

 

The wheels really came off when we had 5 turnovers against ASU and couldn't manage to come back..

The wheels really came off when we had 5 turnovers against ASU and couldn't manage to come back..

 

And all the injuries to the Defense. What was it, like 9 starters were out by the end of the year?

They're 22-5 but I'm more interested in their defensive ranking:

 

total (rush def/pass def)

UNC: 113th (113th/90th)

USC: 78th (67th/83rd)

NC State: 60th (8th/117th)

WF: 26th (51st/31st) - Overall good balanced defense. Good challenge for the offense as a whole

UM: 63rd (46th/92nd)

Navy: 39th (44th/54th)

Stanford: 106th (96th/100th) - Surprising to see Stanford's defense in the tank like this

 

So NC State is definitely worrisome as their defensive strength matches with our offensive strength, so they may force Wimbush to throw. And even with that terrible 117th ranking, I still have doubts that Wimbush would be able to take advantage of a poor passing defense. Here's Wimbush's passing performance vs. the teams that he's faced so far (plus their passing defense rankings):

 

Temple (97th): 56% 2/1

Georgia (10th): 48% 0/0

BC (12th): 45% 0/1

MSU (9th): 70% 1/0

Miami OH (32nd): 39% 3/0

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in MSU's 9th ranking because they've only played 4 games so far. They've also played Bowling Green, WMU, and Iowa to pad that stat (Iowa is definitely not an offensive team).

 

So it is promising that, outside of MSU, he had his best passing performance against the worst ranked passing defense. BUT, we were able to run on Temple so that we didn't have to rely on Wimbush's arm. So it will be interesting to see; IF NC State is able to contain our run, can Wimbush make them pay given they have a terrible passing defense?

And all the injuries to the Defense. What was it, like 9 starters were out by the end of the year?

 

The number didn't matter. Once Joe Schmidt got hurt, even VanGorder didn't know where anyone was supposed to line up.

I could see the concern if we weren't handling teams but we've had the backups in for a good majority of plays in every single one of our wins. We are handling the lesser teams like you usually see from a regular top 10 team, but how many teams have had their second strings in more than us?

 

If you've watched a good chunk of college football this year you should be able to tell we're better than any remaining team we face. There's gonna be some close games and we might lose one but this team can run the table.

my concern with the last 6 games is how many can ND win with out a passing game. against temple, bc and Miami, ND is averaging 423 rushing ypg. against uga and msu ND is averaging 118 rushing ypg. the problem is ND will be easy to defend if they have no passing game. ND could very easily go 2-4 to finish the season.

So before we get 2 excited about what likely will be a 5-1 start with only a 1 point loss to a top 5 team......

 

Before we start wondering if our # 21 rank is fair....

 

Before we start looking at playoff scenarios

 

Take a look at how the teams in the second half of our schedule are doing

 

First half of the schedule teams are 15 wins 14 losses and that's skewed by a 5-0 Georgia

 

the teams we will have beaten (including UNC) are

 

10 wins and 14 losses

 

 

The last six teams we play are 22-5 with a tough Stanford team lowering the count with 2 losses

 

USC--4-1

NCstate--4-1

Miami---3-0

Wake forest--4-1

Navy----4-0

Stanford--3-2

 

 

Bottom line....EVEN AFTER WE BEAT UNC AND GO TOP 20 AND 5-1

 

WE HAVE PROVEN NOTHING YET!!!

 

The second half is as tough a schedule as anybody's last 6

 

We could LOSE 4 of those games and end in a disappointing 7-5 calling for Kelly.s head again

 

We could win all 6 and IMHO PLAYOFF BOUND NO DOUBT!

 

We haven't beaten anybody good in a LONG LONG TIME.....

 

ODDS of winning all 6 EXTREMELY LOW

 

Team gets a great start at 5-1 with a buy

 

BUT

 

THE SECOND HALF IS FILLED WITH BOTH OBSTACLES AND OPPORTUNITIES...

 

I am going to enjoy this start,,,, but I know this

 

THE STORY OF THIS TEAM WILL BE WRITTEN IN THE LAST 6 GAMES!!

 

aloha'a

 

On the nose, as usually Hawaii.

my concern with the last 6 games is how many can ND win with out a passing game. against temple, bc and Miami, ND is averaging 423 rushing ypg. against uga and msu ND is averaging 118 rushing ypg. the problem is ND will be easy to defend if they have no passing game. ND could very easily go 2-4 to finish the season.

 

We share the same concerns. The glaring thing is the inconsistency of Wimbush. And more.... that the passing game seems to favor long developing pass routes. Or maybe as one poster suggested... he doesn't see the receiver open early or throw them open but waits until it is too late.

I don't see any of these teams stopping Adams and Dex, my only concern is either of these guys getting injured. If we lose one or both we could very well go 3-3 to end the final 6 games but with these guys I see us running the table as our ceiling and going 4-2 as the floor.

 

The team has flaws but we are very good in the trenches and have the best 1-2 combo in college football. When you can play good defense and run the ball like we can it's gonna be tough to beat us.

 

Being 1 dimensional is a recipe for disaster. Stop ND's running game and force the Irish to beat you with the pass won't work very often. Miami, USC & Stanford are disasters waiting to happen unless the passing game starts to click.