The question is basically when, or if, ND will hit talent equilibrium, which I define as winning consistently based on the raw talent they have.

 

This page shows the current "raw" talent on each team, based on the last 4 recruiting classes.

 

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

 

ND currently ranks #10 in total talent on the roster. Georgia is #4. They have 11 5* players on the roster, ND has 0. Similar number of 4* players. So I suppose you can suggest ND played that game at equilibrium. They played what should have been a more talented team and lost a close game. Not surprisingly, Temple and BC were far down the list, in the 60's and 70's with a handful of 4*s between them. We saw how those games went.

 

This week, Michigan St checks in at #30. They have 17 4* players and 59 3* players. ND has 46 4* and 33 3*. Based on talent, ND should win this game and maybe even more easily than we might expect.

 

Of course we know coaching and development is what matters. But it isn't a coincidence I think that when you look at the top 15 teams in this ranking, most show up in the top 15 of the actual rankings. ND is one of the big outliers.

 

Can this new staff get ND to a point of equilibrium? This weekend might help us to know.

You see a few annual underachievers around 10-20 but the top 10 is usually solid minus ND. The one difference is we don't have any 5 stars where other teams all have multiple, those guys are usually game breakers. I don't follow it too much anymore but I'm sure the Georgia defense had a lot of 5 stars.

 

As I scrolled down I noticed how low Oklahoma State was. Now imagine them if they recruited well, whatever they are doing is working really well.

You see a few annual underachievers around 10-20 but the top 10 is usually solid minus ND. The one difference is we don't have any 5 stars where other teams all have multiple, those guys are usually game breakers. I don't follow it too much anymore but I'm sure the Georgia defense had a lot of 5 stars.

 

As I scrolled down I noticed how low Oklahoma State was. Now imagine them if they recruited well, whatever they are doing is working really well.

 

I think what is interesting with teams like Ok St, Wisconsin, Michigan St. usually, is that they always do a good job beating the teams with similar talent as them. Those teams are in the 20's and 30's and if you look back over a few seasons, they are winning most of their games vs. that level team.

 

But if you look at how they do vs the top 10 teams, they are mostly losing, with an occasional upset. So yes, it looks great, and is great, to win 10 games every year, but they still need to break into that upper echelon of talent before they can compete with the big boys.

 

Maybe this year will be different for them.

 

That is what is so frustrating with ND. No, they won't beat Alabama or FSU on a consistent basis, but they should be a 10 win team every year and if you pull an upset in the playoffs, who knows. But they constantly under perform.

 

Maybe this new staff will change that.

I think if we played some fcs teams would help. If we could build some depth by playing lesser teams, we wouldn't be so beat up late in the year.

I agree that a second or even a third game against a Miami OH type team would do wonders. No need for an FCS team, but a second team ND should beat by 40 would be nice.

 

Imagine not playing Navy before Stanford, but Bowling Green instead. Blasphemy I know, but no one knocks other teams when they have 2 cupcakes on the schedule.

 

Also a good point about the 5* players, or lack thereof for ND. Imagine a game wrecking DE to rush the passer, or having Jaylon Smith on this team.

Whats amazing is to see that every team in the Top 20 has at least 1 5* except us.

Whats amazing is to see that every team in the Top 20 has at least 1 5* except us.

 

Well Nelson and Daelin were 5* somewhere.

Thing is ND has UNDERPERFORMED based on raw recruiting ranking this ENTIRE CENTURY!!

 

Exceptions 2002--2005 --2015

 

Those three seasons we played TO OUR TALENT LEVEL and had ranking accordingly

 

2012 --could be the case for OVERPERFORMING based on talent level

 

The other 13 seasons were bad to grotesquely bad in underperforming our talent levels

 

1 quarter of the seasons this century we play at our level

 

We have all put forth a cumulative litany of potential causes

 

Poor coaching

Poor hiring of coaches

poor hiring of assistants

some misguided recruiting especially Ty and early weis

Academic demands

Excessive discipline

lack of sufficient 5 stars to punch up our classes

exceptionally difficult schedules

 

and on and on and on long into the night--

 

I guess its some stubborn blend of all that, which results with endemic flaws that none of our coaching hires can overcome....

 

maybe its just bad luck

 

but CLEARLY if we played to our talent level

 

we should have had ZERO SEASONS with under 8 wins--that's ZERO

 

4 seasons- 8 wins--5 seasons- 9 wins - 5 seasons -10 wins 1 season 11 and 1 season 12

 

we got the 12 and a couple others but overall

 

aloha

Edited September 20, 20177 yr by hawaiiirish

The more I look over that list the more concerned I am with our program.

Georgia has ELEVEN 5* players....talk about underachieving!!

 

Whiffing on 5* year after year is a major problem. Expecting to win a national championship with ZERO top level talent on your roster is asinine. We saw the difference between having talent and having elite talent when we played Alabama and Ohio State.

One thing to consider is utilization. If a team has a good position coach and does well recruiting one particular unit, that talent is going to be efficiently utilized.

 

Also, consider another school - #21 Arizona State. By all accounts Todd Graham was told this year is his last chance, perform or be fired. All ASU has done is:

 

Beat #126 New Mexico State by 6 points;

Lose to #77 San Diego State;

Lose to #50 Texas Tech.

 

It'll be interesting to see how long Graham lasts with this upcoming schedule:

 

Oregon

Stanford

Washington

Utah

USC

One thing to consider is utilization. If a team has a good position coach and does well recruiting one particular unit, that talent is going to be efficiently utilized.

 

Also, consider another school - #21 Arizona State. By all accounts Todd Graham was told this year is his last chance, perform or be fired. All ASU has done is:

 

Beat #126 New Mexico State by 6 points;

Lose to #77 San Diego State;

Lose to #50 Texas Tech.

 

It'll be interesting to see how long Graham lasts with this upcoming schedule:

 

Oregon

Stanford

Washington

Utah

USC

 

Look at #11 UCLA....what have they done with their talent?

Here's my take that I am sure no one was waiting on. LOL!

 

Notre Dame has loads of talent. But they don't have tons of talent in a deep way. Or it is underdeveloped/not-yet-developed talent.

We play so many close games (and this has been said by others here) that those younger kids don't get a lot of on-field experience.

I think Brian Kelly has tried to combat this by putting a lot of underclassmen and starters on special teams (even though our return game is non-existent and takes away any chance of putting points on the board there).

 

Brian Kelly's method of winning is playing mistake-free football and betting on the other team messing up first/more. Brian Kelly at Notre Dame has lost only one time in which the Irish didn't turn the ball over. Think it happened last season.

 

Another issue is not making a game plan to get more people involved (dexter williams, CJ sanders). Literally a jet sweep to sanders twice a game or even 5-10 carries a game to Dexter is an absolute must. It is mind boggling why it doesn't happen.

 

Big Picture Notre Dame is probably never going to be a powerhouse team every year. We have to stock up on talent, keep people for four years and wait for those special years where young, talented game-changers pair up with experience-laden squad.

 

I would be perfectly fine with 8 wins, 8 wins, 9 wins, National Championship every five to six years honestly. And I think much of the fanbase would too.

Here's my take that I am sure no one was waiting on. LOL!

 

Notre Dame has loads of talent. But they don't have tons of talent in a deep way. Or it is underdeveloped/not-yet-developed talent.

We play so many close games (and this has been said by others here) that those younger kids don't get a lot of on-field experience.

I think Brian Kelly has tried to combat this by putting a lot of underclassmen and starters on special teams (even though our return game is non-existent and takes away any chance of putting points on the board there).

 

Brian Kelly's method of winning is playing mistake-free football and betting on the other team messing up first/more. Brian Kelly at Notre Dame has lost only one time in which the Irish didn't turn the ball over. Think it happened last season.

 

Another issue is not making a game plan to get more people involved (dexter williams, CJ sanders). Literally a jet sweep to sanders twice a game or even 5-10 carries a game to Dexter is an absolute must. It is mind boggling why it doesn't happen.

 

Big Picture Notre Dame is probably never going to be a powerhouse team every year. We have to stock up on talent, keep people for four years and wait for those special years where young, talented game-changers pair up with experience-laden squad.

 

I would be perfectly fine with 8 wins, 8 wins, 9 wins, National Championship every five to six years honestly. And I think much of the fanbase would too.

 

Good points. But I disagree on one point.

 

If ND is winning a NC every 5 years, they can win 5 games in between for all I care.

I think that is one of the problems though...nobody can argue that ND doesn't have talented players....but they don't get 5* studs who are a game changer as soon as they step on campus....not many successful playoff teams without pro bowlers at multiple positions or MVP candidates either....ND needs those game breakers to take things to the next level

I think that is one of the problems though...nobody can argue that ND doesn't have talented players....but they don't get 5* studs who are a game changer as soon as they step on campus....not many successful playoff teams without pro bowlers at multiple positions or MVP candidates either....ND needs those game breakers to take things to the next level

 

True.

 

Manti was a five star and we went to a championship game.

 

Jaylon Smith was a 5 star and only mass injuries kept us from the playoffs.

 

What if we had two or three 5* on defense? Teams like osu and bama have like 20 plus 5* on their roster. It's like America, the top 2% have all the power and wealth.

 

On a side note, we usually get 3 or 4 guys in the top 100 and they barely make it in. But I did some research a while back on our recruiting and the problem may not just be missing out on stars, but the bottom portion of the class. In recent years we are getting more guys ranked 400 or more

 

a quick break down:

 

2010:BK first class he had to scramble and took 12 players rank 400 or higher

 

2011: his first class true class may have been his best. Still he took 9 over 400 but you assume josh atkinson had to be part of the deal to get his brother and hanratty was probably a goodwill jester.

 

2012: only 5 over 400

 

2013: Just 1 over 400. kinda shows good season may not land you 5 stars but they but it helps with the high 4's

 

2014: 4 kids over 4

 

2015: POW!!! 10 guys can't breach the 400 mark

 

2016: BAM!!! 12 kids over 400.

 

To me it shows we have lost our "closers". We used to finish strong now we struggle down signing day home stretch.

 

What was the question again?

You see a few annual underachievers around 10-20 but the top 10 is usually solid minus ND. The one difference is we don't have any 5 stars where other teams all have multiple, those guys are usually game breakers. I don't follow it too much anymore but I'm sure the Georgia defense had a lot of 5 stars.

 

As I scrolled down I noticed how low Oklahoma State was. Now imagine them if they recruited well, whatever they are doing is working really well.

 

Their outside linebacker was faster than Wimbush lol.. Their(UGA's) defense is stacked..

 

Anytime you can crash the read and then chase it down from behind and only allow 2 yards, you're a dude...

 

Good catch.. We're the only team inside the top 22 without a 5*. There has to be significance to that statistically above and beyond our overall team ranking, because we're obviously heavily loaded with 4*s

Their outside linebacker was faster than Wimbush lol.. Their(UGA's) defense is stacked..

 

Anytime you can crash the read and then chase it down from behind and only allow 2 yards, you're a dude...

 

Good catch.. We're the only team inside the top 22 without a 5*. There has to be significance to that statistically above and beyond our overall team ranking, because we're obviously heavily loaded with 4*s

 

The term "SEC defense" gets way overused, but I think it applies in their case.

 

Remember how good Jaylon Smith was? They had two guys in the front 7 rated at his level. Then basically everyone else was in the Nyles Morgan category, but faster.

 

If we are being honest, Daelin Hayes would be a backup for them and he's among ND's top 2 defenders.

The term "SEC defense" gets way overused, but I think it applies in their case.

 

Just as important as their 4 fast linebackers were their 3 down linemen. The were getting a lot penetration in the center/guard gap and stunting. This delayed ND's backs from getting to the line of scrimmage and by that time the linebackers cleaned up.

 

The most baffling thing to me is why college teams don't go with more sophisticated snap counts. One of the reasons why GA was able to get penetration is because you could see they were getting off the ball as quickly as ND's offensive linemen. If they had to deal with difficult snap counts they would not be able to do that.

Just as important as their 4 fast linebackers were their 3 down linemen. The were getting a lot penetration in the center/guard gap and stunting. This delayed ND's backs from getting to the line of scrimmage and by that time the linebackers cleaned up.

 

The most baffling thing to me is why college teams don't go with more sophisticated snap counts. One of the reasons why GA was able to get penetration is because you could see they were getting off the ball as quickly as ND's offensive linemen. If they had to deal with difficult snap counts they would not be able to do that.

 

Yeah, that DT Thompson is probably a future top 10 pick.

With how much of a lightening rod ND football is, I would like to see a future coach that actually excels at public speaking in addition to being a good coach.

 

Media outlets can't wait to bash ND and recruits read, watch and listen to that. In addition, public speaking plays well with in home recruit visits.

 

I think ND's talent level goes up with a coach that excels in that area combined with results on the field.