How Tough is our Schedule

[Soko 135]

S02 TEMPLE

S09 GEORGIA

S16 @ Boston College

S23 @ Michigan State

S30 MIAMI(OH)

O07 @ North Carolina

O21 SOUTHERN CAL

O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

N04 WAKE FOREST

N11 @ Miami(FL)

N18 NAVY

N25 @ Stanford

 

 

I'm just about ready to to check back into CFB so am not too up with what the others are doing just yet. I do know MSU will be bad and the opening 2 games at home are perfect to win and make just enough people take notice without blowing the doors off it.

 

Other than that it seems like a very manageable slate. A highly rated USC team will be at home so you always are in that game now and then maybe Miami on the road? Stanford eat our lunch yearly so that will be tough.

 

A semi competent team wins 10 games. That has to be the bar.

[tneun89 1,118]

S02 TEMPLE

S09 GEORGIA

S16 @ Boston College

S23 @ Michigan State

S30 MIAMI(OH)

O07 @ North Carolina

O21 SOUTHERN CAL

O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

N04 WAKE FOREST

N11 @ Miami(FL)

N18 NAVY

N25 @ Stanford

 

 

I'm just about ready to to check back into CFB so am not too up with what the others are doing just yet. I do know MSU will be bad and the opening 2 games at home are perfect to win and make just enough people take notice without blowing the doors off it.

 

Other than that it seems like a very manageable slate. A highly rated USC team will be at home so you always are in that game now and then maybe Miami on the road? Stanford eat our lunch yearly so that will be tough.

 

A semi competent team wins 10 games. That has to be the bar.

 

ND has a consensus Top 20 SOS, with Phil Steele giving them the 12th hardest schedule in the country, FWIW. I think the three hardest games are obviously Georgia, USC, and Stanford. It helps that we get Georgia and USC at home, but playing Georgia that early in the season will be a huge challenge for Wimbush and the defense. USC is a Top 5 team with the Heisman favorite at QB. I don't think we've beaten Stanford in Palo Alto since 2007.

 

Besides those games, there are some other challenges. Five true road games, which have been a HUGE problem for ND under BK. I think they are 3-10 in their last 13 true road games. I think MSU and BC are bad, but I don't expect either game to be a cakewalk. BC at 11:00 AM will be a painful game to watch, and MSU under the lights in East Lansing is dangerous. UNC should take a step back this year, though, and I am not high on Miami, even though they are preseason Top 25. If ND could go 4-1 on the road with the only loss at Stanford, that would be huge.

 

The other games not mentioned shouldn't be bad, with the exception of NC State. They will be good this year, and their defensive line could be a big problem. Playing them after USC will also hurt ND, IMO. Temple, Miami (OH), Wake, and Navy should all be wins. I know ND has had trouble against Navy under BK, but I don't see that this year. The only thing that worries me is ND plays them on Senior Day, which always seems to be a day the team struggles.

 

I think, all in all, ND can win 9+ games against this schedule.

 

Temple - W

Georgia - L

@ BC - W

@ MSU - W

Miami (OH) - W

@ UNC - W

USC - L

NC State - W

Wake Forest - W

@ Miami (FL) - W

Navy - W

@ Standford - L

 

I could see ND beating both USC and Georgia. I could also see ND losing to NC State, UNC, and Miami.

Edited August 4, 2017 by tneun89

[Irish_Convert 1]

S02 TEMPLE

S09 GEORGIA

S16 @ Boston College

S23 @ Michigan State

S30 MIAMI(OH)

O07 @ North Carolina

O21 SOUTHERN CAL

O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

N04 WAKE FOREST

N11 @ Miami(FL)

N18 NAVY

N25 @ Stanford

 

 

I'm just about ready to to check back into CFB so am not too up with what the others are doing just yet. I do know MSU will be bad and the opening 2 games at home are perfect to win and make just enough people take notice without blowing the doors off it.

 

Other than that it seems like a very manageable slate. A highly rated USC team will be at home so you always are in that game now and then maybe Miami on the road? Stanford eat our lunch yearly so that will be tough.

 

A semi competent team wins 10 games. That has to be the bar.

 

BC always bring it against ND. So do MSU, USC, Miami, Navy and Stanford. I think the bar is 10-2 but anything less than 8-4 is unacceptable under the circumstances. I'm starting to believe that the new benchmark for success is +.500%.

[foreverirish34 11]

Love the bye before USC.seems manageable.

[Soko 135]

Georgia seems like the make or break game for me. Win that and it could be an interesting season. They are not ranked anywhere so I'm guessing expectations are not huge down there either.

[hawaiiirish 62]

Georgia is number 15 with two terrific running backs leading the attack---picked by many to win at least their division in the SEC

 

very doubtful we win that--would be wonderful but not likely

 

how tough is our schedule??

 

TOUGH

 

I think if we could get to 9-3 and win a bowl to 10-3 that really would have to be considered a very successful season given the defensive roster/ tough schedule/ sweeping coaching changes & 4 win 2016

 

Odds of going 9 & 3 are under 50%

 

Odds of going 9 wins and then winning a bowl for a 10 win top 15 season I would put at 30%

 

Not great chances but good enough to be the benchmark for a really successful turnaround season

 

aloha

Edited August 5, 2017 by hawaiiirish

[OKCIrish99 3]

Georgia is number 15 with two terrific running backs leading the attack---picked by many to win at least their division in the SEC

 

very doubtful we win that--would be wonderful but not likely

They have issues on the oline despite Chubb and Michel. I think we have a chance to win this game, and it could be a big tone setter for the entire season.

 

2 things will need to happen for an Irish win over Georgia:

 

Wimbush must outplay Eason and protect the ball.

The defense has to do a fairly good job stopping UGA's rush.

 

Huge game for sure.

[JoeBrasco 0]

I agree with Hawaii 9-3 would be a success and point the program back in the right direction. Although the UGA game week two could set the team up for a very successful season. If they win that game it is very possible to go 6-0 into the USC game at home. You never know what can happen there especially if USC is #1 by that point and the Irish have on green jerseys.....

 

I know that became a homeristic post at the end, but it's the first week of August and anything is possible. If I were actually putting $$ down I would go with 9-3. The schedule is definitely a tough one.

[ndomer4 532]

I see 4 losses but the Georgia game should tell us a lot. If we can win that no reason we don't finish the season with ten or more wins.

[Frankus 210]

I would not underestimate Dantonio and MSU's ability to play us tough in East Lansing.

[VCDomer 75]

I would not underestimate Brian Kelly's ability to exceed all execpectations to disappoint us. By all early accounts, he will be more involved in the play calling than I believe will lead us to a respectable 8 win season.

[corysold 0]

This Georgia game has the feeling of 2012 OU for me. The big powerhouse ND has no chance of beating, etc., etc.

 

I know that one was further into the season, but I get the feeling ND will come away with a season defining win over Georgia.

[corysold 0]

I would not underestimate Brian Kelly's ability to exceed all execpectations to disappoint us. By all early accounts, he will be more involved in the play calling than I believe will lead us to a respectable 8 win season.

 

What accounts are those?

[moostache 0]

BEST CASE: 11-1

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

WIN S09 GEORGIA

WIN S16 @ Boston College

WIN S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

WIN O07 @ North Carolina

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

WIN N11 @ Miami(FL)

WIN N18 NAVY

WIN N25 @ Stanford

 

PLAYOFF BERTH? Depends on USC season...

 

---------------------------------------------------

 

WORST CASE: 4-8

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

LOSS S09 GEORGIA

LOSS S16 @ Boston College

LOSS S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

LOSS O07 @ North Carolina *Kelly Fired*

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

LOSS N11 @ Miami(FL)

LOSS N18 NAVY

LOSS N25 @ Stanford

 

Can't happen? Yeah....That's what I thought before last year too...

 

-------------------------------------------------------

 

MOST LIKELY (IMO)...: 7-5

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

LOSS S09 GEORGIA

WIN S16 @ Boston College

LOSS S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

WIN O07 @ North Carolina

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

LOSS N11 @ Miami(FL)

WIN N18 NAVY

LOSS N25 @ Stanford

 

Kelly gets "credit" for a turnaround from 4-8 to 7-5 (especially if we stay within a TD against UGa and USC but still lose, as I believe will happen) and gets yet another year to 'prove' the program is on the right course...(which is obvious to anyone that can read and count it is NOT...not in championships, not in wins, not in All-Americans, not in example to the rest of CFB...wrong man for the job will stick around for another campaign when its obvious he is only the answer if the question is "Is he good enough to maintain mediocrity with a once a decade run of luck?"

 

I hope I am wrong and that 2017 is Kelly's second 'once-in-a-decade, 2012-esque' season...I just have very little hope of that outcome...

[Soko 135]

Georgia is number 15 with two terrific running backs leading the attack---picked by many to win at least their division in the SEC

 

Oh that's good. What a great opportunity so to knock off a top 15 SEC team out the gate.

 

I'm not worried about Georgia. Their program is also soft. I remember having them playing Bama a couple of years ago at home and the game was basically a pick' em. They lost by 4 TDs. They are not a tough team and you couldn't pick a better team to play at home and try to pad your resume.

[tneun89 1,118]

Oh that's good. What a great opportunity so to knock off a top 15 SEC team out the gate.

 

I'm not worried about Georgia. Their program is also soft. I remember having them playing Bama a couple of years ago at home and the game was basically a pick' em. They lost by 4 TDs. They are not a tough team and you couldn't pick a better team to play at home and try to pad your resume.

 

I agree. I am worried about Georgia's defense - probably Top 10 in the entire country - and their one-two punch at RB. But they didn't show anything under Kirby Smart last season.

 

Their wins last season include: 9-point win over UNC; 2-point win over Nicholls (they were lucky to win honestly); 1-point win over Missouri; 14-point win over South Carolina; 3-point win over Kentucky; 6-point win over Auburn (their best win of the season); 14-point win over Louisiana; and 8-point win over TCU in the Liberty Bowl.

 

They lost to Ole Miss (45-14), Tennessee (last second hail mary); Vanderbilt, Florida, and Georgia Tech.

 

Obviously ND had a horrible season last year, so take these results with a grain of salt, but Georgia is not the world-beater everyone is making them out to be. They have a very good/great defense and a mediocre offense, but just happen to have one of the Top 5 running backs in the country. Playing in South Bend is huge, and playing early in the season should be advantageous as well given the new schemes on both sides of the ball. I think ND has a good chance at the upset.

[ELDER06 248]

Oh that's good. What a great opportunity so to knock off a top 15 SEC team out the gate.

 

I'm not worried about Georgia. Their program is also soft. I remember having them playing Bama a couple of years ago at home and the game was basically a pick' em. They lost by 4 TDs. They are not a tough team and you couldn't pick a better team to play at home and try to pad your resume.

 

That was under Richt, not Kirby Smart. I am worried about the UGA game, especially with an unproven Defense. I expect ND to be competitive in the game, but I think UGA pulls away late.

[echo88 74]

If you've paid attention for the past 20 years or so, we start out with an insurmountable schedule ranked in the top 20 and then by season's end it's more like 40.

[echo88 74]

That was under Richt, not Kirby Smart. I am worried about the UGA game, especially with an unproven Defense. I expect ND to be competitive in the game, but I think UGA pulls away late.

 

We haven't seen a RB duo the likes of Chubb and Michel since lightning and thunder in '05.

 

I think they run all day (night) and then Eason gets plenty of chances to showcase his arm once we adjust...

[coltssb 1,125]

If you've paid attention for the past 20 years or so, we start out with an insurmountable schedule ranked in the top 20 and then by season's end it's more like 40.

 

I'll add to this. Say what you will, but when ND wins against a top opponent early on in the year they seem to take a nose dive. When they lose, those teams seem to go on to bigger things Mich. St 11-1 one year. Teams play ND like it's their Super Bowl. That's the only reason I can think of...

[JoeBrasco 0]

BEST CASE: 11-1

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

WIN S09 GEORGIA

WIN S16 @ Boston College

WIN S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

WIN O07 @ North Carolina

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

WIN N11 @ Miami(FL)

WIN N18 NAVY

WIN N25 @ Stanford

 

PLAYOFF BERTH? Depends on USC season...

 

---------------------------------------------------

 

WORST CASE: 4-8

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

LOSS S09 GEORGIA

LOSS S16 @ Boston College

LOSS S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

LOSS O07 @ North Carolina *Kelly Fired*

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

LOSS N11 @ Miami(FL)

LOSS N18 NAVY

LOSS N25 @ Stanford

 

Can't happen? Yeah....That's what I thought before last year too...

 

-------------------------------------------------------

 

MOST LIKELY (IMO)...: 7-5

 

WIN S02 TEMPLE

LOSS S09 GEORGIA

WIN S16 @ Boston College

LOSS S23 @ Michigan State

WIN S30 MIAMI(OH)

WIN O07 @ North Carolina

LOSS O21 SOUTHERN CAL

WIN O28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

WIN N04 WAKE FOREST

LOSS N11 @ Miami(FL)

WIN N18 NAVY

LOSS N25 @ Stanford

 

Kelly gets "credit" for a turnaround from 4-8 to 7-5 (especially if we stay within a TD against UGa and USC but still lose, as I believe will happen) and gets yet another year to 'prove' the program is on the right course...(which is obvious to anyone that can read and count it is NOT...not in championships, not in wins, not in All-Americans, not in example to the rest of CFB...wrong man for the job will stick around for another campaign when its obvious he is only the answer if the question is "Is he good enough to maintain mediocrity with a once a decade run of luck?"

 

I hope I am wrong and that 2017 is Kelly's second 'once-in-a-decade, 2012-esque' season...I just have very little hope of that outcome...

 

If ND goes 7-5 Kelly loses his job IMO. He needs to show major improvement over last year in order to stick around. Anything less than a 9-3 regular season and he should be gone.

[Kid Gloves 151]

I'm sorry but I see us as 8-4 at best with this schedule. I just don't think we are very talented on the defense and we are going to have the same issues as last year: stopping the run, and getting pressure on the QB.

 

I see 6 really losable games: Georgia, Mich St, UNC, USC, Miami, and Stanford. I think we will play well in at least one of these and get the W. we would have to win one more just to go 8-4. I just don't see us winning more than 2 of these games based off what I saw last year and what I'm seeing so far this year. Georgia, USC, and Miami have more talent than us overall. Sparty, UNC, and Stan are probably on par with our talent give or take--but we play all three of these on the road (plus Miami) and we have been a terrible road team under BK.

 

An avg defense at best, an inexperienced QB, and a head coach that is always personally responsible for blowing at least one game each year (I'm being generous here), I think going 8-4 would be the best case scenario.

 

I hope I'm wrong though.

[OKCIrish99 3]

I'm sorry but I see us as 8-4 at best with this schedule. I just don't think we are very talented on the defense and we are going to have the same issues as last year: stopping the run, and getting pressure on the QB.

Although I agree with 8-4, I do think this team will be with getting pressure on the qb. D Hayes, Trumbetti (hearing he looks incredible now), Odungeji, Kareem, and J Okwara should be able to create pressure. Possibly more important will be Elko's system. Should see good improvement in this area. Edited August 6, 2017 by OKCIrish99

[goirish83 0]

If ND goes 7-5 Kelly loses his job IMO. He needs to show major improvement over last year in order to stick around. Anything less than a 9-3 regular season and he should be gone.

 

He shouldve been fired last year, 4-8 in year 7 is completely unacceptable. 2 double digit win seasons out of 7 isn't good enough.

 

But in saying that the powers that be had a choice after the USC game, fire Kelly or fully invest in him. They chose the latter and because of that I see this as a 2-3 year investment unless we see a repeat of last season. I believe if kelly can win six games theyll keep him another year. They didn't bring in all these assistant coaches and build a new strength program for a 1 year trial unless that year is a compete and total disaster

Edited August 6, 2017 by goirish83

[cali_domer 298]

He shouldve been fired last year, 4-8 in year 7 is completely unacceptable. 2 double digit win seasons out of 7 isn't good enough.

 

But in saying that the powers that be had a choice after the USC game, fire Kelly or fully invest in him. They chose the latter and because of that I see this as a 2-3 year investment unless we see a repeat of last season. I believe if kelly can win six games theyll keep him another year. They didn't bring in all these assistant coaches and build a new strength program for a 1 year trial unless that year is a compete and total disaster

Agreed on everything. The admin are invested fully with BK and Swarbrick will not admit he made a mistake.