12 Win Offense + 7 Win Defense = 9.5 Wins

[OklahomaIrish]

I've been seeing a lot of hype about some of our offensive players, particularly wideouts,slots and backs. On paper this may be the best offensive line of the Kelly era and there is good reason we are ranked number one in the country at tight end. Can't wait to see Alize Mack in the slot and he goes deep over the middle. Jeeeez! Just look at the size and talent of these receivers. Last time we had two good 6' 5'' guys we were in title contention.

 

Yeah this is potentially a great offense. If Wimbush is similar to his high school production the sky is the limit. Hopefully Chip Long is the answer at calling the plays. Kelly personally lost 3 games last year in Texas, N C State, Duke and Navy. Ok, that's 4 games!! Kelly seems brilliant at times and weirdly idiotic at other times. With his back against the wall he made some great hires. Hawaii, I think we beat 2015 offensive stats if Wimbush stays healthy.

 

So here's the problem. This is a 7 win defense but let me be the eternal optimist and share some thoughts of why it will improve over last year. First and foremost are the Hayes boys. Daelin looked great in the spring and Jay is peaking and up to 293 according to one of his tweets. It won't be hard to beat last year stats at sacks and tfl's. I also see a few more big plays at linebacker with Tranquill, Morgan and Martini. I've always liked Tranquill and Morgan is extremely gifted while Martini simply makes plays.

 

When it comes to defensive back I know we will be much better at corner. Remember we had big numbers and a ton of talent in the freshmen class last year. Love is a given. He was very impressive for a freshman. Vaughn looked great in that deep interception and he used his height and turned his head perfectly. Troy pride is extremely fast. Now throw in the previous 4 star studs of Watkins and Crawford and we could be special. The problem is safety. Unfortunately this is not where you want to make mistakes. Maybe with a little luck the Navy transfer will be eligible. Instant starter and upgrade on this defense.

 

Sorry for the run on thoughts but I am way more optimistic than last year. In fact it was so depressing I took a sabbatical. One more thought on defense. I ignored defensive tackle and nose guard because it is hard to find something really good to say, but I like Micah Dew Treadway as a back up.If you go to Megyn Kelly's Notre Dame twitter page you can see a tape of him working out. Very impressive for a 300 pounder. Quick feet, good vertical, power, athleticism and pretty good speed.

 

Again, this super offense is going to win games, The defense is improved and the coaching may be a plus rather than a negative. Not to be overlooked is the new strength and conditioning coach. The players are believers and so I will believe what they say. So I guess we will win 9 1/2 games this year!!! I'm going out on a limb and rounding that up to 10 wins with coaching being the difference.

[goirish83]

I see 8 wins this season assuming September doesn't turn into a freefall. Kelly's teams have been traditionally pretty average on the road and below average the past few seasons. With 5 true road games this season 3-2 seems about the best we can do there with wins over bc, msu and splitting Miami/nc while losing to Stanford. I'm going to go 5-2 at home this season with losses to usc and Georgia. Kelly's squads also do not traditionally beat teams they shouldn't so I doubt that starts now. If this team beats all the teams they should I could see 9 wins max but I don't see that happening. And I find it really difficult to envision a 4 win team turning it around to 9 or 10 wins the very next season.

[OklahomaIrish]

I see 8 wins this season assuming September doesn't turn into a freefall. Kelly's teams have been traditionally pretty average on the road and below average the past few seasons. With 5 true road games this season 3-2 seems about the best we can do there with wins over bc, msu and splitting Miami/nc while losing to Stanford. I'm going to go 5-2 at home this season with losses to usc and Georgia. Kelly's squads also do not traditionally beat teams they shouldn't so I doubt that starts now. If this team beats all the teams they should I could see 9 wins max but I don't see that happening. And I find it really difficult to envision a 4 win team turning it around to 9 or 10 wins the very next season.

 

First, I don't see this is Kelly's team. If he is indeed turning over the offensive play calling to Chuck Long and I am thrilled with Elko on defense. Don't think of last year as a 4 win team. That talent had huge holes but was a 7 win team. This year we have plugged some holes but the new coaches can and will make a difference. How big?? Not sure, but I would be disappointed with 8 wins. Big time disappointed.

 

I'm really counting on Wimbush to be a playmaker with consistency. What will be your prediction if we beat Georgia?? Personally, I think Wimbush will be out to take control of that game the way Malik beat LSU, only Wimbush is a much better passer than Malik.

[coltssb]

Glad to see you back Okie.

As for turning around from one year to the next, it happens all the time. If it happens to ND that's another story. Like beating a dead horse, it all depends on the defense. Elko will be getting his money's worth this year. I just hope he dumbed it down enough where guys aren't thinking and are just playing. I still think 10 wins can be manageable. But the loss of Cage hurts. Have to have the other d-linemen step up. More than likely we are a 8-9 win team.

[goirish83]

First, I don't see this is Kelly's team. If he is indeed turning over the offensive play calling to Chuck Long and I am thrilled with Elko on defense. Don't think of last year as a 4 win team. That talent had huge holes but was a 7 win team. This year we have plugged some holes but the new coaches can and will make a difference. How big?? Not sure, but I would be disappointed with 8 wins. Big time disappointed.

 

I'm really counting on Wimbush to be a playmaker with consistency. What will be your prediction if we beat Georgia?? Personally, I think Wimbush will be out to take control of that game the way Malik beat LSU, only Wimbush is a much better passer than Malik.

 

I hope you're right okie, I think if we beat Georgia and sweep September then we have a real chance at 10 wins

[LasVegasIrish]

I'll take 9.5 wins this year

[echo88]

"Chuck will be given the full responsibility to call plays in 2017,” said Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly.

 

If this is true then we are in better shape than I thought. I doubt it, though.

[ELDER06]

I hope you're right. My fear is they're a 5 or 6 win Defense. Love what Elko is doing but he hasn't been given a lot to work with. Again, f*** Van Gorder.

[OklahomaIrish]

I hope you're right. My fear is they're a 5 or 6 win Defense. Love what Elko is doing but he hasn't been given a lot to work with. Again, f*** Van Gorder.

 

One of the things I do is print out the depth chart and just study each position to see if we improve, digress or remain the same. If you take the defensive backs as a whole we should improve dramatically because of the injuries last year and all the youth. Suddenly we have 4 star Nick Watkins and Shun Crawford back in the mix. Love proved himself early and looks like a star. Vaughn can really blanket his man down the sideline with his 6' 2 1/2'' height. Heck, Studstill, a former starter, ,may not see the field.

 

Then I look at linebackers keeping in mind the newer much more simple scheme and I project much more production from Morgan, Martini and Tranquill. I was really concerned about future depth here but we got a great commit today in Simon from St. Peters Prep. Stellar OLB.

 

 

Now everyone cringes when we talk defensive line but as a unit it will put much more pressure on the ball then we did last year. Mainly the Hayes boys. I think half the equation at defensive line has been solved, that being defensive end. The future is very bright with Julian Okwara as he has grown to 6' 4 1/2'' and 240 pounds. This redshirt has 4 years eligibilty and was a solid 4 star recruit that got after the quarterback. Now even more exciting to me is Ade Ogundeji. Why?? He was only a 3 star. Well he was a 3 star because he was very young and hadn't played much football. He was a 6' 5'' string bean at about 215 pounds. He was only 17 when he got to Notre Dame.

 

Well, now, after a year in the weight room and a full year at weak side defensive end he is over 250 pounds. We will get the updated weights in about a week when Fall Ball starts. On film this kid is fast and dominated smaller schools. He shows great quickness, change of direction and ability to get to the ball. He has speed and plays reckless once he is in the backfield.

 

My point is we are looking very good at defensive end for several years. I can't say that about the interior. I've seen nothing from Tillery. Cage was OK but now is lost. Bonner is still unknown. Sadly our hope are three sophomores that only garnered three stars. My favorite is Taylor but he has been injured and may not be 100%. Tiassum looks like another Peter Mokwuah and that leave only Micah Dew-Treadway.

 

Let me again refer you to Megyn Kelly's Notre Dame twitter page and scroll down to see his work out video. I think you will be surprised.

Edited July 26, 2017 by OklahomaIrish

[FaithInIrish Forever]

I'm in the mirority that likes our defense an expects it to preform. Seeing the spring game live I saw some misses in the offense. Hopefully things clean up. Defense and running game need to get Brandon comfortable and then in my view we could see a good to special season.

 

 

20-23 points allowed= 10+ wins

24-27 points allowed= 7-9 wins

27 or more= 7 or less wins.

[coltssb]

I'm in the mirority that likes our defense an expects it to preform. Seeing the spring game live I saw some misses in the offense. Hopefully things clean up. Defense and running game need to get Brandon comfortable and then in my view we could see a good to special season.

 

 

20-23 points allowed= 10+ wins

24-27 points allowed= 7-9 wins

27 or more= 7 or less wins.

 

Exactly right on those numbers Faith. I've been hoping for 23 or less for awhile now. If you look at OSU recruiting class, it's loaded with defensive players. We seem to load up with good receivers.

[OklahomaIrish]

I'm in the mirority that likes our defense an expects it to preform. Seeing the spring game live I saw some misses in the offense. Hopefully things clean up. Defense and running game need to get Brandon comfortable and then in my view we could see a good to special season.

 

 

20-23 points allowed= 10+ wins

24-27 points allowed= 7-9 wins

27 or more= 7 or less wins.

 

I do expect improvement from this defense. Elko is reason number one. BVG was really a drag. Other than that I love the Hayes boys. This is where we have a chance to make some plays behind the line. Secondary could really benefit from the return of Watkins and Crawford. Don't forget we had 4 freshmen playing last year and they will all improve. Love and Vaughn are my favorites. Pride is really fast. Just really worried about those safeties. Texas burned us last year with a freshman quarterback. We've got to clean that up.

[FaithInIrish Forever]

Yup. 4 win defense to a 7 win defense is an improvement. I see that now. I agree with your final number 9 or 10. I just think I would go more 10 on offense 8 on defense or something.

 

But our conclusion is the same.

[Frankus]

I think you have to put an awful lot of faith in Long to call this a 12 win offense.

 

Here's the Scoring Offense rank of each team in the Kelly era:

 

2010 67

2011 49

2012 78

2013 74

2014 38

2015 34

2016 53

Edited July 28, 2017 by Frankus

[corysold]

I think you have to put an awful lot of faith in Long to call this a 12 win offense.

 

Here's the Scoring Offense rank of each team in the Kelly era:

 

2010 67

2011 49

2012 78

2013 74

2014 38

2015 34

2016 53

 

Great stat, but that fails to take into account a whole lot. Raw scoring totals don't take into account pace of play, opponent strength, outcome of game, etc.

 

Using the more advanced metrics, ND has had a top 20 offense in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Top 6 in 2015. Those would be considered 12 win offenses.

 

The thing is, ND wasn't great last year, but literally everything that could go wrong had to go wrong for them to only win 4 games. I'd expect much more improvement than most think simply because I don't think they were as bad as most think last year.

[OklahomaIrish]

Yup. 4 win defense to a 7 win defense is an improvement. I see that now. I agree with your final number 9 or 10. I just think I would go more 10 on offense 8 on defense or something.

 

But our conclusion is the same.

 

Yeah, I kind of wanted to change that after I wrote it but here is my thinking. 12 win offense means we are better on offense than any of the 12 teams we are playing. Now USC comes to mind and I am a big fan of that quarterback, but our talent is just absurd when you look at the offensive linemen, the plethora of tight ends and receivers that were all 4 star studs in high school, and a big group of backs with high pedigree and experience. Josh Adams is really good.

 

I think Wimbush will outperform USC's qb on our home field. He has enough time to really be in a groove and his running ability will be the difference.

 

As far as comparing this talent to other years, I see no team in our past with this much across the board talent. The O line is simply massive and extremely athletic. I have bought in to what the players

said about the new strength and conditioning coach.

[FaithInIrish Forever]

Yeah, I kind of wanted to change that after I wrote it but here is my thinking. 12 win offense means we are better on offense than any of the 12 teams we are playing. Now USC comes to mind and I am a big fan of that quarterback, but our talent is just absurd when you look at the offensive linemen, the plethora of tight ends and receivers that were all 4 star studs in high school, and a big group of backs with high pedigree and experience. Josh Adams is really good.

 

I think Wimbush will outperform USC's qb on our home field. He has enough time to really be in a groove and his running ability will be the difference.

 

As far as comparing this talent to other years, I see no team in our past with this much across the board talent. The O line is simply massive and extremely athletic. I have bought in to what the players

said about the new strength and conditioning coach.

 

I'm with ya. My biggest indicators on offense for ND are always Running Backs and tight ends. Here's why: A successful Running Back needs a good offensive line to succeed long term. If ND has one position that gets the most people in the NFL over time its been tight end.

 

I'm find the best ND teams play close, relatively mistake free, football. A good running game and solid tight end play for a security blanket for the QB. Coupled with what I hope is a "bend but don't break defense" have me hopeful for 2017.