Posted November 3, 201410 yr Since the Navy game, I've read that ND, FSU and Miss. St. aren't good. Yet, they are all three in the current top 10 and have not lost to anyone other than themselves. If these teams aren't good, who is?
November 3, 201410 yr Since the Navy game, I've read that ND, FSU and Miss. St. aren't good. Yet, they are all three in the current top 10 and have not lost to anyone other than themselves. If these teams aren't good, who is? Cop out answer? No one is. It's a down year, which is why I believe we NEED to get into the playoffs. We can beat any of these stupid teams on a neutral field LSU is gonna be freaky good next year with how young they are.
November 3, 201410 yr Author Cop out answer? No one is. It's a down year, which is why I believe we NEED to get into the playoffs. We can beat any of these stupid teams on a neutral field LSU and Notre Dame are gonna be freaky good next year with how young they are. Fixed it for you.
November 3, 201410 yr Since the Navy game, I've read that ND, FSU and Miss. St. aren't good. Yet, they are all three in the current top 10 and have not lost to anyone other than themselves. If these teams aren't good, who is? No one, most parity since 2007. Auburn currently is #1 with an F/+ of 37.5% - Lowest since 2007 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
November 3, 201410 yr No one, most parity since 2007. Auburn currently is #1 with an F/+ of 37.5% - Lowest since 2007 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus Ol Miss at 4 with two losses... Oklahoma at 6 with two losses(and having beaten no one)... http://i.imgur.com/VMiF2.gif Seriously, F+ is retarded. Georgia has lost to the dredges of the SEC east and are ranked ahead of us. Louisville has beaten NO ONE, has three losses and is ranked ahead of us. Please don't mention F+ anymore, it's worthless.
November 3, 201410 yr Author to a simple mind, sure. Efficiency ratings are great, but the goal of football is to win the game, not be the most efficient team on the field.
November 3, 201410 yr Efficiency ratings are great, but the goal of football is to win the game, not be the most efficient team on the field. Of course, but time and time again, the most efficient team wins the game. Especially in one possession after another possession after another possession. That is one reason why Navy is typically such a hard match (limited possessions). And a team like ASU should set up nicely for us.
November 3, 201410 yr Author Of course, but time and time again, the most efficient team wins the game. Especially in one possession after another possession after another possession. That is one reason why Navy is typically such a hard match (limited possessions). And a team like ASU should set up nicely for us. But ASU is ahead of ND in these rankings. We should be trying to take the air out of the ball.
November 3, 201410 yr Of course, but time and time again, the most efficient team wins the game. Especially in one possession after another possession after another possession. That is one reason why Navy is typically such a hard match (limited possessions). And a team like ASU should set up nicely for us. Oh really? Explain Miami then. Miami is ranked 12th in your sabermetric ranking. They lost by 10 to Nebraska(ranked 14th) The lost by 18 to Louisville(ranked 17th) They lost by 11 to Georgia Tech(ranked 19th) It's seriously retarded. The fact Miami is even ranked 12th is absurd when we are better than them in almost ever REAL tangible stat outside rushing yards.
November 3, 201410 yr Oh really? Explain Miami then. Miami is ranked 12th in your sabermetric ranking. They lost by 10 to Nebraska(ranked 14th) The lost by 18 to Louisville(ranked 17th) They lost by 11 to Georgia Tech(ranked 19th) It's seriously retarded. The fact Miami is even ranked 12th is absurd when we are better than them in almost ever REAL tangible stat outside rushing yards. not even sure why im wasting my time, but anyways... Against Lville - miami was starting a true FR QB in Kaaya...it was his first ever game, first ever road game in a hostile environment. One could easily argue they caught them at the wrong time. Against Neb - the game was virtually even. Yards, time of possession, Miami won the passing battle, Nebraska won the rushing battle, etc but one flukey 50 yard fumble return for Nebraska turned out to be a difference maker. Against GT - an option team which can cause headaches, but again another even game statistically. Miami had two huge TOs inside the redzone which turned out to be the difference. all three games were on the road as well and if you look at the numbers there is not much difference between #12 and #19 (which is why all the games were so close sans turnovers)
November 3, 201410 yr But ASU is ahead of ND in these rankings. We should be trying to take the air out of the ball. 20.7% and 20.2% - its even. However, I would say we have much more efficiency potential - so edge to us. Our numbers suffer because of Golsons mindless mistakes and lack of running game to start the year.
November 3, 201410 yr not even sure why im wasting my time, but anyways... Against Lville - miami was starting a true FR QB in Kaaya...it was his first ever game, first ever road game in a hostile environment. One could easily argue they caught them at the wrong time. Against Neb - the game was virtually even. Yards, time of possession, Miami won the passing battle, Nebraska won the rushing battle, etc but one flukey 50 yard fumble return for Nebraska turned out to be a difference maker. Against GT - an option team which can cause headaches, but again another even game statistically. Miami had two huge TOs inside the redzone which turned out to be the difference. all three games were on the road as well and if you look at the numbers there is not much difference between #12 and #19 (which is why all the games were so close sans turnovers) Who cares? Michigan gained more yards than us, we beat them 31-0. Michigan gained more yards than Utah, lost 26-10. All of those things mean absolutely nothing. Nada. Zip. Ziltch. They don't give a title to the Time of Possession champion.(Congrats to Western Kentucky for winning that title in 2011) So Miami...Did you win the game? Oh you didn't? Were you jobbed by the refs? No? Oh you're blaming a "fluky" fumble eh? But wasn't the score 41-24 with about 3 minutes to go? And wasn't the Georgia Tech game over when they had the second pick? I mean there was only a minute left and they were down by two scores anyway..Maybe scoring 3 points in the entirety of the 2nd,3rd and 4th quarters isn't a good strategy. That's my problem with sabermetrics. They are cute numbers but that's about it. Red zone efficiency. That's a real stat. Third down conversion, real stat. Game control? Time of possession? Who cares? Wins. Losses. No one crowned a team based on stats Edited November 3, 201410 yr by piratey
November 3, 201410 yr Who cares? Michigan gained more yards than us, we beat them 31-0. Michigan gained more yards than Utah, lost 26-10. All of those things mean absolutely nothing. Nada. Zip. Ziltch. They don't give a title to the Time of Possession champion.(Congrats to Western Kentucky for winning that title in 2011) So Miami...Did you win the game? Oh you didn't? Were you jobbed by the refs? No? Oh you're blaming a "fluky" fumble eh? But wasn't the score 41-24 with about 3 minutes to go? And wasn't the Georgia Tech game over when they had the second pick? I mean there was only a minute left and they were down by two scores anyway..Maybe scoring 3 points in the entirety of the 2nd,3rd and 4th quarters isn't a good strategy. yeah like i said, im just wasting my time. you see a final score of 28-17 and go "herp derp - the team that scored 17 sucks, herp derp"
November 3, 201410 yr yeah like i said, im just wasting my time. you see a final score of 28-17 and go "herp derp - the team that scored 17 sucks, herp derp" Except...I just blew your stupid little theory in half because I actually watched the game. From the 2nd quarter on, Georgia Tech abused Miami, it wasn't even as close as 28-17. Georgia Tech scored TDs on 4 of their 6 drives. Miami only touched the ball three times in the second half. it wasn't close. The team that managed to score 3 points after the 1st quarter sucks. Oh and yes the stats were CLOSE, in terms of yardage. If you view the game from a lame sabermetric lens. But when Miami has 169 yards in the first quarter...and then just 183 in the other 3 quarters(~61yards per quarter after the first) You'll see that Georgia Tech buckled down and dominated after a shaky start Edited November 3, 201410 yr by piratey
November 3, 201410 yr No one, most parity since 2007. Auburn currently is #1 with an F/+ of 37.5% - Lowest since 2007 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus We get it. You like F/+. I think that there is some merit to the analysis but you should try pointing to something else once in a while. Because regardless of how elegant the statistical analysis may or may not be, when it is the only measure you use to decide who the best team is, who is going to win a game, who is going to be the national champ, etc., it makes us think that you think that the stats matter more than what actually happens on the field. During the middle of the FSU/Louisville game you were bringing up what FSU's projected regular season record was supposed to be as though it has ANY bearing on the game whatsoever! There's a place for it. Just tone it down a notch.
November 3, 201410 yr We get it. You like F/+. I think that there is some merit to the analysis but you should try pointing to something else once in a while. Because regardless of how elegant the statistical analysis may or may not be, when it is the only measure you use to decide who the best team is, who is going to win a game, who is going to be the national champ, etc., it makes us think that you think that the stats matter more than what actually happens on the field. During the middle of the FSU/Louisville game you were bringing up what FSU's projected regular season record was supposed to be as though it has ANY bearing on the game whatsoever! There's a place for it. Just tone it down a notch. We are all here just subjectively projecting games. I just use statistics to back my assertions. I do not think im going overboard and its a lot more valuable than just saying "Miami sucks" "Duke sucks" etc etc
November 4, 201410 yr Author We are all here just subjectively projecting games. I just use statistics to back my assertions. I do not think im going overboard and its a lot more valuable than just saying "Miami sucks" "Duke sucks" etc etc Does the number carry over from year to year? Is a +20% this year the same as a +20 from previous years? I ask because ND was a +23.5 in 2011 and is a +20.2 this year, but I'm pretty sure this team would beat that team by three scores. Or is a cumulative thing and ND will move up to a higher number as they play more games?
November 4, 201410 yr We are all here just subjectively projecting games. I just use statistics to back my assertions. I do not think im going overboard and its a lot more valuable than just saying "Miami sucks" "Duke sucks" etc etc Fair enough. It just doesn't always have a very subjective feel to it.
November 4, 201410 yr Watching the teams play is also a good way to evaluate them. Using that personal system my top twelve best teams FSU--24 in a row--every team has struggled a little but they need to be 1 Oregon Alabama Auburn Miss state TCU ND MSU KSU ASU OSU aloha
November 4, 201410 yr We are all here just subjectively projecting games. I just use statistics to back my assertions. I do not think im going overboard and its a lot more valuable than just saying "Miami sucks" "Duke sucks" etc etc The stats Piratey and I are talking about are pretty worthless and have absolutely no correlation to who is good and who is bad. They have no bearing on who could beat who. Those stats would mark a 31-0 Notre Dame v Michigan as a win for Michigan, so basically what Piratey and I are saying is that those stats are meaningless. Edited November 5, 201410 yr by NDhoosier
Since the Navy game, I've read that ND, FSU and Miss. St. aren't good. Yet, they are all three in the current top 10 and have not lost to anyone other than themselves.
If these teams aren't good, who is?