Based on prior years, a top 30 offense would yield 34-35 points per game and ~450 yards per game.

 

Will this offense reach those marks?

It will be disappointing if we don't. I see us being in the neighborhood of 500 yds/game. We have too many skill players with so much potential and this is the season it will all be unleashed! And it all starts on Saturday against Rice!

It will be disappointing if we don't. I see us being in the neighborhood of 500 yds/game. We have too many skill players with so much potential and this is the season it will all be unleashed! And it all starts on Saturday against Rice!

 

500 yards per game would reflect a top 10 total offense. Top 10 in scoring would be 40 points per game.

 

Top 20 would be 475 yards and 37 points per game.

500 yards per game would reflect a top 10 total offense. Top 10 in scoring would be 40 points per game.

 

Top 20 would be 475 yards and 37 points per game.

 

The only problem is, most of the top 20 teams get 3-4 games vs vastly inferior competition to pad those stats.

 

Let's grab the top 2 as an example:

 

#1 Baylor....

69 points against Wofford

70 points against Buffalo

70 points against La.-Monroe

And then they get to play the Big12

 

#2 FSU

62 points against Nevada

54 points against Bethune-Cookman

80 points against Idaho

The only problem is, most of the top 20 teams get 3-4 games vs vastly inferior competition to pad those stats.

 

Let's grab the top 2 as an example:

 

#1 Baylor....

69 points against Wofford

70 points against Buffalo

70 points against La.-Monroe

And then they get to play the Big12

 

#2 FSU

62 points against Nevada

54 points against Bethune-Cookman

80 points against Idaho

 

True. That makes top 10 out of reach. ND likely won't play with enough tempo either for that high if ranking.

 

But a good offense should get 40-50+ on the likes of Rice, Navy, Purdue, Syracuse, and with any luck, Michigan.

IF the offense can stay relatively healthy, there is NO excuse for this offense not to be extremely effective. I don't care who they are playing. They need to dictate what happens. Spread the field, be unpredictable, and use the talent they have to move the ball up and down the field. And, most importantly, put the rock in the endzone.

The only problem is, most of the top 20 teams get 3-4 games vs vastly inferior competition to pad those stats.

 

Let's grab the top 2 as an example:

 

#1 Baylor....

69 points against Wofford

70 points against Buffalo

70 points against La.-Monroe

And then they get to play the Big12

 

#2 FSU

62 points against Nevada

54 points against Bethune-Cookman

80 points against Idaho

 

 

^^^^^^^^^^^This is Gospel^^^^^^ It makes me puke to see some of the teams Oklahoma plays. Everyone does it except us. If we average 35 it is like most teams averaging nearly 40 and I do expect to see us hover around the 35 mark. We should get off to a good start against Rice with near 50. Hoping it doesn't rain.

The only problem is, most of the top 20 teams get 3-4 games vs vastly inferior competition to pad those stats.

 

Let's grab the top 2 as an example:

 

#1 Baylor....

69 points against Wofford

70 points against Buffalo

70 points against La.-Monroe

And then they get to play the Big12

 

#2 FSU

62 points against Nevada

54 points against Bethune-Cookman

80 points against Idaho

 

I tend to value the FEI rankings by Brian Fremeau. Here's an explanation of the rating:

 

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

 

You'll be interested to see that ND's offensive efficiency rankings for the last 4 years are:

 

2010: 36th

2011: 26th

2012: 12th

2013: 20th

 

Steady improvement over BK's first 3 years. Took a step back in 2013 after investing in EG for 2012 only to lose him and default to Tommy Turnover.

 

I'm going to bet that 2013 was an anomaly and we see the offense return to the upward trend.

 

I'll go ahead and predict that ND finishes with a top-10 efficient offense. I'll try to remember this post so we can rehash this after the season.

I tend to value the FEI rankings by Brian Fremeau. Here's an explanation of the rating:

 

 

 

You'll be interested to see that ND's offensive efficiency rankings for the last 4 years are:

 

2010: 36th

2011: 26th

2012: 12th

2013: 20th

 

Steady improvement over BK's first 3 years. Took a step back in 2013 after investing in EG for 2012 only to lose him and default to Tommy Turnover.

 

I'm going to bet that 2013 was an anomaly and we see the offense return to the upward trend.

 

I'll go ahead and predict that ND finishes with a top-10 efficient offense. I'll try to remember this post so we can rehash this after the season.

 

I agree this is a better measure, but sometimes it is easier to look at raw stats.

 

ND was actually hovering in the top 5 for most of 2012 if I remember, they played a bunch if really strong defenses and performed pretty well.

I agree this is a better measure, but sometimes it is easier to look at raw stats.

 

ND was actually hovering in the top 5 for most of 2012 if I remember, they played a bunch if really strong defenses and performed pretty well.

 

especially later in the year when Golson was starting to put things together...

 

I see big things for them in 2014.

 

Hopefully the D can give is a few stops...

2013 #s

Total Offense - 67th @ 406.2

Passing Offense - 39th @ 254.8

Rushing Offense - 80th @ 151.3

Scoring Offense - 74th @ 27.2

 

I believe the passing numbers will be about the same, but I can definitely see a ~50 yard improvement on the ground.

 

I believe Golson will also be key in upping the scoring percentage enough to average an extra TD a game.

 

...so yeah, I think ND creeps into the top 30.

 

Though, I use my car keys everyday, and about 3 times I week I forget where I left them.....the question is, can Brian Kelly find the other half of his playbook that he hasn't used in in over a year (and 4 of the last 5 seasons).

2013 #s

Total Offense - 67th @ 406.2

Passing Offense - 39th @ 254.8

Rushing Offense - 80th @ 151.3

Scoring Offense - 74th @ 27.2

 

I believe the passing numbers will be about the same, but I can definitely see a ~50 yard improvement on the ground.

 

I believe Golson will also be key in upping the scoring percentage enough to average an extra TD a game.

 

...so yeah, I think ND creeps into the top 30.

 

Though, I use my car keys everyday, and about 3 times I week I forget where I left them.....the question is, can Brian Kelly find the other half of his playbook that he hasn't used in in over a year (and 4 of the last 5 seasons).

 

Don't forget the 400 yards Tommy lost rushing. If Golson rushes for 600 that is 1,000 yards difference. Also, we will finally run at a faster pace, that should account for something, yes?? Let's get those 50 points in game one.

Don't forget the 400 yards Tommy lost rushing. If Golson rushes for 600 that is 1,000 yards difference. Also, we will finally run at a faster pace, that should account for something, yes?? Let's get those 50 points in game one.

 

I have literally heard that at the beginning of every new season under BK. Until I see a fast paced offense, I am going to assume BK's fast paced offense no longer exists (or it is coaching in Buffalo right now).

2013 #s

Total Offense - 67th @ 406.2

Passing Offense - 39th @ 254.8

Rushing Offense - 80th @ 151.3

Scoring Offense - 74th @ 27.2

 

I believe the passing numbers will be about the same, but I can definitely see a ~50 yard improvement on the ground.

 

I believe Golson will also be key in upping the scoring percentage enough to average an extra TD a game.

 

...so yeah, I think ND creeps into the top 30.

 

Though, I use my car keys everyday, and about 3 times I week I forget where I left them.....the question is, can Brian Kelly find the other half of his playbook that he hasn't used in in over a year (and 4 of the last 5 seasons).

 

Okay, two things. First. I have no doubt in my mind, passing numbers will increase mightily. My rational is simple, we'll never have as pathetic a passing drought as we did from 9/21 to 10/19(MSU to USC)

In that 4 game span...

54/122(44%) 691(172ypg) That's about as bad a stretch as we've seen...that's 2007-esque

 

Second, a healthy running game should improve the health of the passing game. Play action and the like.

I have literally heard that at the beginning of every new season under BK. Until I see a fast paced offense, I am going to assume BK's fast paced offense no longer exists (or it is coaching in Buffalo right now).

 

 

 

DING DING DING DING DING! There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is true. This was the biggest loss under the BK regimen....

The only problem is, most of the top 20 teams get 3-4 games vs vastly inferior competition to pad those stats.

 

Let's grab the top 2 as an example:

 

#1 Baylor....

69 points against Wofford

70 points against Buffalo

70 points against La.-Monroe

And then they get to play the Big12

 

#2 FSU

62 points against Nevada

54 points against Bethune-Cookman

80 points against Idaho

 

not to be "that guy" but I bet Notre Dame would only score like 35 or 40 against those teams...

With the number of good teams we play, I won't be looking at PPG as an indicator of an elite offense. If we scoring 30 points + a game on teams like FSU and Stanford, that is a better indicator of an elite offense than 70 points on Wofford. Shoot, just beating FSU and some of the teams we face would be fine with me.

With the number of good teams we play, I won't be looking at PPG as an indicator of an elite offense. If we scoring 30 points + a game on teams like FSU and Stanford, that is a better indicator of an elite offense than 70 points on Wofford. Shoot, just beating FSU and some of the teams we face would be fine with me.

 

I'm looking to see if we move the ball and if we sustain key drives. I want an identity on offense... Because if you asked me over the last 8 5 years, what our offense was...I couldn't tell you.

With the number of good teams we play, I won't be looking at PPG as an indicator of an elite offense. If we scoring 30 points + a game on teams like FSU and Stanford, that is a better indicator of an elite offense than 70 points on Wofford. Shoot, just beating FSU and some of the teams we face would be fine with me.

 

hence the offensive efficiency rankings.....

 

come one people.... numbers are fun!

hence the offensive efficiency rankings.....

 

come one people.... numbers are fun!

 

I love stats. The efficiency numbers are what I liked to see.