It has become painfully obvious to me that I may be forced to revise my calculations due to the merry-go-around we call college football coaching.

 

Previously, I calculated the probability of Diaco leaving Notre Dame as follows: 60% he does not go to Boston College together with a 90% chance he does not get any other job: 0.6 * 0.9 = 0.54 - 54% chance he does not go anywhere.

 

I originally thought that Coach Diaco's chance of being offered and accepting the Boston College job would be somewhere around 40% (hence the 60% he does not go) based on his high profile success at ND, his lack of Head Coaching experience, and his, let's just say, "quirkiness."

 

That still sounds about right.

 

The input change actually come along with the breaking news that Wisconsin Head Coach Bret Bielema will be leaving for the Arkansas job, the remote possibility that Paul Chryst might be lured back from Pittsburgh, and the thought that Coach Diaco might be an attractive candidate for either Wisconsin Athletic Director and former Notre Dame Asst Coach/Iowa Asst Coach Barry Alvarez or Pittsburgh.

 

So, although I still put the chances that he takes one of those jobs, plus any more currently out there or about to open up, as remote; it still goes up and the chances that he stays at Notre Dame consequently go down. That's how we roll in the world of statistics.

 

Our new calculations;

Probability Coach Diaco takes the BC job: 40%

Probability Coach Diaco takes some other job: 20%

Probability Coach Diaco takes neither: 06 * .08 = 0.48%

 

So we have reached the historic tipping point when the probability of Coach Diaco staying at ND is less than that of him leaving. Although not by a significant amount.

 

How do you like the name of the thread? I think he fits perfectly with the subject's unique and rather interesting personality.

Edited December 4, 201211 yr by 2lakes

I'm thinking it is an almost certainty he is gone.

 

2012 Broyles Award winner looks pretty darn good on a resume when going up for a head coaching job. If a school is looking to hire an assistant to promote to HC who better to hire than the current best assistant in all of CFB??

0% that he is leaving.

 

He is staying put---debate over.

Yikes! Just realized Diaco came out of the same pipe-line as Barry Alvarez.

 

Perfect fit for Wisconsin. Damn

0% that he is leaving.

 

He is staying put---debate over.

 

Yeah we sent Luca Brasi to talk some sense to him.

0% that he is leaving.

 

He is staying put---debate over.

 

You, my friend, need to concentrate less on Diaco and more on Alexander.

You, my friend, need to concentrate less on Diaco and more on Alexander.

 

I call what makes sense. Diaco isn't leaving. Alexander would be Irish but his vagina likes iguana-comforting weather. One will be right and one should be right.

Alvarez: Iowa -> ND -> Wisconsin plus he was a LB coach and DC.

 

Yes, yes, my precious. I mustess have my preciousess.

I call what makes sense. Diaco isn't leaving. Alexander would be Irish but his vagina likes iguana-comforting weather. One will be right and one should be right.

 

0% and 100% are probability busters. You must therefore either move on to another thread or concede a 0.1% chance that he leaves.

0% and 100% are probability busters. You must therefore either move on to another thread or concede a 0.1% chance that he leaves.

 

Don't try to impress your mathematics wizardry on me. Ill concede nothing.

Am i wrong or is BC not his first HC interview this year.

 

If he's done more than 1 interview, he wants to go, and will take a HC job when/if offered to him. Cant blame him, that's 'set for life' money.

Am i wrong or is BC not his first HC interview this year.

 

If he's done more than 1 interview, he wants to go, and will take a HC job when/if offered to him. Cant blame him, that's 'set for life' money.

 

He is interviewing because of money. We can offer more. This is Notre Dame.

He is interviewing because of money. We can offer more. This is Notre Dame.

 

best assistants get what, 1M per? I would guess that BC, Wisc, maybe Pitt would all offer him 2ish... maybe 1.5?

best assistants get what, 1M per? I would guess that BC, Wisc, maybe Pitt would all offer him 2ish... maybe 1.5?

 

That was in jest, but yes, I think with national titles being a reality we could offer more.

I think BK could get him 2M to stay on for a few more years. Why jump ship when you are this close to winning a title if going somewhere else, your odds a winning a title are significantly less. Build the brand for a few years. Build a dominant D for years in a row and then go looking. Every colllege will be jumping at the bit if you can win several championships.

He's gone, book it.

He's gone, book it.

 

agree...

 

Assistants simply cannot pass up the big seat at a top 50 job if they ever want to be a HC.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1147826/HaydenFryCoachingTree2.png

He's gone, book it.

 

Addazio hired by BC. I thought Bob was gone for sure! I am glad to be wrong! Pass the crow white meat.

maybe diaco didn't take the job.................

He's gone, book it.

 

Bet ya a sawbuck you're wrong...