Now, before the 'Realists' jump all over me, this is NOT a prediction. Hey, doesn't anybody else use that underline thingy??

 

This is not a prediction yet.

 

Just Watched Stanford lose to Washington. We will have same game plan as we had against Michigan State. Stuff the run and get after Nunes (qb). Not a great quarterback. Don't see great receivers.

 

Front 7 on defense is very good. We are at home and should win. Golson needs to develop and should.

 

So who on the schedule should be favored to beat us?? Nobody!! Oklahoma will lose again before they play us and we will be favored. USC is struggling with the O line and can not take a hit there. So this is not a prediction at this time. Injuries happen. But this could be a special year.

I actually thought a few people would scoff at the idea of us even remotely having a chance to run the table. It doesn't hurt to dream. We can't lose one game and have a chance at the title. Get Better. Diaco is going to actually improve this defense. Surely Kelly can improve our offense.

 

Let's don't worry about other teams losing. Remember, Alabama must win a conference playoff game. Isn't this a fun season.

 

Demetrius Jackson committed to the basketball team. Great day to be Irish.

I actually thought a few people would scoff at the idea of us even remotely having a chance to run the table. It doesn't hurt to dream. We can't lose one game and have a chance at the title. Get Better. Diaco is going to actually improve this defense. Surely Kelly can improve our offense.

 

Let's don't worry about other teams losing. Remember, Alabama must win a conference playoff game. Isn't this a fun season.

 

Demetrius Jackson committed to the basketball team. Great day to be Irish.

 

I think as a fanbase we are collectively shitting our pants because we haven't been in this position(undefeated going into October)since 2002 and before that it was 1993! We don't exactly remember what to do

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QgMyixqBl0o/UGSkwgSNkbI/AAAAAAAAACQ/E-SMKbmtptY/s1600/ohyeaahh_color.png

 

http://ndmspaint.blogspot.ca/2012/09/im-drinkin-it.html

Beat Miami.

Beat Miami.

 

and Stanford, BYU, OU, BC, Pitt, WF, and U$C.

Beat Miami.

This. But any REAL ND fan is lying if they don't get downright silly giddy about the possibility of running the table. Not as farfetched as originally believed with the opponents but still a longshot. Again though:

 

BEAT MIAMI!!!

Oh, every time our end of season record comes up my hopes immediately take me to undefeated. It's a real possibility. Unfortunately it's still a very small possibility. As noted, we very well might be favored in each game. However, remember that saying that a team should win two games individually is not equivalent to saying that a team should win both games as a series.

 

For example:

ND plays hypothetical Team1: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND plays hypothetical Team2: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND

should

win the game against Team1.

ND

should

win the game against Team2.

ND's net expected wins from the two game series is 1.33.

ND

should be 1-1

for that two game series on average.

 

You've got to string a bunch of 90%+ games together (with a couple more difficult ones thrown in for "legitimacy") if you want decent odds of running the table. Or you could just be that much better than everyone else, but few teams are on that level.

 

Don't get me wrong, though... I go to sleep at night dreaming of 13 and 0.

Oh, every time our end of season record comes up my hopes immediately take me to undefeated. It's a real possibility. Unfortunately it's still a very small possibility. As noted, we very well might be favored in each game. However, remember that saying that a team should win two games individually is not equivalent to saying that a team should win both games as a series.

 

For example:

ND plays hypothetical Team1: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND plays hypothetical Team2: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND

should

win the game against Team1.

ND

should

win the game against Team2.

ND's net expected wins from the two game series is 1.33.

ND

should be 1-1

for that two game series on average.

You've got to string a bunch of 90%+ games together (with a couple more difficult ones thrown in for "legitimacy") if you want decent odds of running the table. Or you could just be that much better than everyone else, but few teams are on that level.

 

Don't get me wrong, though... I go to sleep at night dreaming of 13 and 0.

 

This is exactly what I mean when I say there is not much room for error. However, for Golson to play like he did against Michigan, and then to win, we just dodged a bullet. There is another bullet coming, maybe two. Can we dodge them?? Maybe we can with this defense and a little help from above. That fumble by Denard was huge!

Oh, every time our end of season record comes up my hopes immediately take me to undefeated. It's a real possibility. Unfortunately it's still a very small possibility. As noted, we very well might be favored in each game. However, remember that saying that a team should win two games individually is not equivalent to saying that a team should win both games as a series.

 

For example:

ND plays hypothetical Team1: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND plays hypothetical Team2: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND

should

win the game against Team1.

ND

should

win the game against Team2.

ND's net expected wins from the two game series is 1.33.

ND

should be 1-1

for that two game series on average.

 

You've got to string a bunch of 90%+ games together (with a couple more difficult ones thrown in for "legitimacy") if you want decent odds of running the table. Or you could just be that much better than everyone else, but few teams are on that level.

 

Don't get me wrong, though... I go to sleep at night dreaming of 13 and 0.

 

While this is great, nearly every year, a team or two goes undefeated, when I would guess, from a purely mathematical standpoint, that would be very unlikely. I could be wrong though, math never was my strong suit.

While this is great, nearly every year, a team or two goes undefeated, when I would guess, from a purely mathematical standpoint, that would be very unlikely. I could be wrong though, math never was my strong suit.

 

Statistically speaking, each game is an individual event and the results of one game have no bearing on the probability of winning the next. If I flip a quarter and get heads 9 times in row my odds of getting heads a 10th time are still 50/50.

Statistically speaking' date=' each game is an individual event and the results of one game have no bearing on the probability of winning the next. If I flip a quarter and get heads 9 times in row my odds of getting heads a 10th time are still 50/50.[/quote']

 

I don't know if that means you agree with me or not, but I think there are just too many variables in a football game to really assign a probability to winning it over an entire season.

 

Sure, ND is likely to beat Miami, but is there really a way to know if that is a 60% chance or a 65% chance? We've all seen varying computer projections and it isn't as though each one comes out the same.

 

Is it fun to have a thread like 2Lakes did, sure, but I don't know how accurate it truly is.

 

Maybe I just don't have a good enough understanding of probability, which is probably the case.

Oh, every time our end of season record comes up my hopes immediately take me to undefeated. It's a real possibility. Unfortunately it's still a very small possibility. As noted, we very well might be favored in each game. However, remember that saying that a team should win two games individually is not equivalent to saying that a team should win both games as a series.

 

For example:

ND plays hypothetical Team1: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND plays hypothetical Team2: 66.7% chance of winning.

ND

should

win the game against Team1.

ND

should

win the game against Team2.

ND's net expected wins from the two game series is 1.33.

ND

should be 1-1

for that two game series on average.

 

You've got to string a bunch of 90%+ games together (with a couple more difficult ones thrown in for "legitimacy") if you want decent odds of running the table. Or you could just be that much better than everyone else, but few teams are on that level.

 

Don't get me wrong, though... I go to sleep at night dreaming of 13 and 0.

 

There you go. That is indeed a more precise way of determining how many games you expect a team to win. If you think a team has more than a 50% chance of winning 13 games, that is not the same thing as expecting them to go 13-0.

 

Another way to work with probability is to multiply the chances for two or more independent events to figure out the probability of all those events happening: if there is a 60% of rain today, tomorrow, and the next day, then there is a 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216 = 22% chance of it raining all three days. So if you have a 60% of beating every team on your schedule, then your chance of going 12-0 is (0.6)^12 = 0.00218 = 0.2% (that's 1/5 of a percent, not 2%, BTW).

There you go. That is indeed a more precise way of determining how many games you expect a team to win. If you think a team has more than a 50% chance of winning 13 games, that is not the same thing as expecting them to go 13-0.

 

Another way to work with probability is to multiply the chances for two or more independent events to figure out the probability of all those events happening: if there is a 60% of rain today, tomorrow, and the next day, then there is a 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216 = 22% chance of it raining all three days. So if you have a 60% of beating every team on your schedule, then your chance of going 12-0 is (0.6)^12 = 0.00218 = 0.2% (that's 1/5 of a percent, not 2%, BTW).

 

So help me out then 2Lakes, you are the math guy. At what point does the math break down? Or I suppose the math doesn't break down, but something changes.

 

So let's take Alabama. Giving them a 98% chance to beat all 11 teams other than LSU and a 75% chance to beat LSU, that gets them to 60ish% chance of being undefeated, or almost 1 in 2, despite being seemingly over optimistic in some of those probabilities.

 

So even for the best team in America, the odds of going unbeaten are roughly 1 in 2, yet every year we get multiple teams that get there.

 

Is that just a case of giving enough teams a chance, one or two will "beat" the odds to get there? Even giving a team a 90% chance to beat 11 teams and a 50/50 in their rival game leaves them at only 15% to go unbeaten.

 

Is it just a numbers game or is there a difference in the formula when you are calculating out individual games?

So help me out then 2Lakes, you are the math guy. At what point does the math break down? Or I suppose the math doesn't break down, but something changes.

 

So let's take Alabama. Giving them a 98% chance to beat all 11 teams other than LSU and a 75% chance to beat LSU, that gets them to 60ish% chance of being undefeated, or almost 1 in 2, despite being seemingly over optimistic in some of those probabilities.

 

So even for the best team in America, the odds of going unbeaten are roughly 1 in 2, yet every year we get multiple teams that get there.

 

Is that just a case of giving enough teams a chance, one or two will "beat" the odds to get there? Even giving a team a 90% chance to beat 11 teams and a 50/50 in their rival game leaves them at only 15% to go unbeaten.

 

Is it just a numbers game or is there a difference in the formula when you are calculating out individual games?

 

In a vacuum the odds of beating any team are 50/50, but that is just not realistic. The true odds of beating any team can only be determined by weighing out the strengths and weaknesses of any individual team combined with external factors compared to the strength of weaknesses of their opponent.

 

With that said, the odds of any team running the table depend entirely on their schedule and uncontrollable external factors. The reason multiple teams run the table each year is because they (usually) stack the deck in their favor by taking the field against favorable competition in which they can increase their chances of winning.

 

One unaccountable factor is the athlete who dates down. If you look at Stanford and their success, much of it was driven by a singular irregularity in recruiting in which an athlete who would normally go to a higher tier athletic school opted to go to Stanford. This was an anomaly, statistically speaking. Most of the time, an Andrew Luck is going to go to a USC, or a Texas, or an SEC school.

 

When this does occur, it can cause a momentary blip (Andrew Luck) or it could be more of a wave or shift (Manti Te'o). Only time can tell. These things tend to balance out in the end as teams that consistently play talent below their level are forced to move up in order to get a seat the big boy table.

 

I know that skews things, but what it comes down to is that statistical analysis based on coin flips is entirely random, you would have to compute the strengths and weaknesses of each team to provide a weighted score in order to determine who goes undefeated.

 

Another, and more simple, way to look at it is that the odds of running the table are only as good as the odds of winning your toughest game. If Alabama is 50/50 against LSU, do they stand a 92 percent chance of running the table or do they stand a 50 percent chance of running the table?

Another, and more simple, way to look at it is that the odds of running the table are only as good as the odds of winning your toughest game. If Alabama is 50/50 against LSU, do they stand a 92 percent chance of running the table or do they stand a 50 percent chance of running the table?

 

This is incorrect. They actually have a 20% chance of running the table in your scenario. The odds must be less than the odds of winning the toughest game.