About a week before Early Signing Day (Dec21).... Quick summary of what to expect.

I'll be travelling that day, so pop in that evening... lighting a candle for Bowen... 

 

• Current 2023 Class situation
  • 247 Composite Rank - #3
  • Commits - 26
    • 24 assumed Irish, and 2 with worries/concerns
  • Total Points - 288.16
  • Average - 92.33
• Current 2023 Roster Math
  • 92-93ish, meaning we'll need to lose 7-8ish if we need to hit 85... 
  • Latest transfer/loss - TE Berrong 
  • Latest transfer/gain - K Shrader
  • Note - ND pursuing DT and a couple WRs, so roster math is fluid....
• Potential 2023 Decommits 
  • SAF Peyton Bowen - 5 Star, 0.9919, 14 National Rank (all positions)
    • OK and TAMU in the conversation, but believe it's a coinflip between ND and OK. 
    • His mom loves ND, but he has a girl and buddy at OK
  • RB Jayden Limar - 4 Star, 0.9081, 275 National Rank (all positions)
    • OR making a big push
    • Would sting a bit due to loss of RB/APB Dylan Edwards (0.9270) to Sanders at CO... 
• Other schools that might overtake ND (in the ranks)
  • ND #3 / 26 / 288.16 / 92.33
  • TX #4 / 21 / 286.23 / 92.29
    • another commit jumps TX over ND, and most believe they will get multiple
  • OSU #5 / 19 / 283.35 / 93.52
    • another decent commit likely jumps OSU over ND, and most believe they will get multiple 
  • LSU #6 / 24 / 282.62 / 91.86
    • another high ranked commit likely jumps LSU over ND, and they have a few big star kids are leans. Last I heard/read their status, the class will be bigger (due to roster turnover of 2022). 5 Star CB Ricks is lean too.. 
  • OK #7 / 23 / 280.14 / 91.84
    • similar to the situation in LSU. And a flip of Bowen will due the trick. 
  • Miami #8 / 22 / 278.04 / 91.56
    • knocking the door, and likely get 5 Star OT Okunlola. That would be their 3rd 5-Star kid... 
  • Others -
    • FL Gators is knocking on the door too, but need some luck vs Bama and UGA (recruit battles)... 
    • TAMU - great avg (92.40), and only 13 commits... could be chaos there. Could be several late commits, or if the coach is fired, they might lose several of the 13... 
    • Clemson, USC, OR and PSU are knocking on the door too, but would be strong finishes. 
• Class Prediction
  • If Bowen sticks, we'll likely rank #6 or 7ish.. 
  • If Bowen flips, we potentially fall outside of top 10 if other teams close strong.
  • We'll need to keep Bowen and add additional commits to stay at #3.
  • No realistic chance to improve from #3 unless Bama or UGA classes fall apart (won't happen), and we add too... 

Picked

#8, which would be similar to both 2022 and 2021... 

Lose Bowen to OK

Keep Limar

Picked ND to wind up 6 when the dust settles. And my guess is Peyton Bowen and Jaden Limar stick with the Irish. No intel on these 2, just my WAG. At least I sure hope they do stick!

Think ND finishes at 8th.

Even with that, though, I think this will still be one of ND's best classes of this century.  I'll bet a lot of these guys contribute early, and most stick around at least 3 years.  

Now, if the coaching can develop these guys, develop schemes and game plans around the talents of the players they have, and be able to adjust during the games, ND will be a force over the coming years.

I'm enthusiastic about this class, even if Bowen and Limar leave.  Keep the rest, pick up some backup prospects...very solid.

I put them in at #5 only because I think I can Will them into a top five finish. More realistically it will probably be lower as we come down the stretch. But I really like this class even if not a top 5. It appears to have more speed and athleticism then most prior classes.

Picked ND to finish 7th. I removed Bowen and Limar from the class, and the score without those two would have been 6th in 2022, 8th in 2021, and 7th in 2020. So, I just took the average. 

I have almost zero confidence that Bowen sticks. Too much smoke about OU all season, and their insiders are very confident he flips, while ND is "hopeful" that he sticks. I think it'll happen on ESD, unfortunately.

A lot of smoke about Limar flipping to Oregon. He apparently wants to visit Eugene this weekend, which would pretty much end things with ND. That one is more 50/50 IMO, but not confident the way things are trending.

Will have more once the dust settles. While this class is still really good (on par with BK's best classes), the what ifs are frustrating: Keon Keely (5-star, #10 overall, one time commit), Dante Moore (5-star, #11 overall, one time silent commit), Peyton Bowen (5-star, #14 overall, serious flip candidate to OU), Dylan Edwards (4-star, #184 overall, flip to Colorado), Jayden Limar (4-star, #275 overall, serious flip candidate to Oregon).

If ND landed/kept those 5 guys (and they still COULD keep Bowen and/or Limar), that class would have finished with a score of 302.41, which would have finished 4th in 2022, 3rd in 2021, and 4th in 2020. Would have been up there with Alabama, Georgia, and OSU. 

ND will need to figure it out soon. Don't want to blame everything on NIL, but ND is losing recruits because of it.

Can’t lose runningbacks….this is stupid, especially when we are so run heavy…

4 hours ago, tneun89 said:

Picked ND to finish 7th. I removed Bowen and Limar from the class, and the score without those two would have been 6th in 2022, 8th in 2021, and 7th in 2020. So, I just took the average. 

I have almost zero confidence that Bowen sticks. Too much smoke about OU all season, and their insiders are very confident he flips, while ND is "hopeful" that he sticks. I think it'll happen on ESD, unfortunately.

A lot of smoke about Limar flipping to Oregon. He apparently wants to visit Eugene this weekend, which would pretty much end things with ND. That one is more 50/50 IMO, but not confident the way things are trending.

Will have more once the dust settles. While this class is still really good (on par with BK's best classes), the what ifs are frustrating: Keon Keely (5-star, #10 overall, one time commit), Dante Moore (5-star, #11 overall, one time silent commit), Peyton Bowen (5-star, #14 overall, serious flip candidate to OU), Dylan Edwards (4-star, #184 overall, flip to Colorado), Jayden Limar (4-star, #275 overall, serious flip candidate to Oregon).

If ND landed/kept those 5 guys (and they still COULD keep Bowen and/or Limar), that class would have finished with a score of 302.41, which would have finished 4th in 2022, 3rd in 2021, and 4th in 2020. Would have been up there with Alabama, Georgia, and OSU. 

ND will need to figure it out soon. Don't want to blame everything on NIL, but ND is losing recruits because of it.

Exactly right. No way any one with a serious face can look at this year, he’ll even last year and compare recruiting to years prior. AtM set the bar and now there’s no turning back until rules are changed. This would of been(still can) a hell of a class. 
I just hope Freeman doesn’t get to sucked in and starts getting gaps with his recruiting classes because he starts to miss. Which by the way, I don’t think he’s doing or will do. But, I’m glad ND is finally in on some top talent. I just wished it was the other way around where ND is doing the poaching and not trying to hold on for dear life for a top recruit. 
 

3 hours ago, coltssb said:

Exactly right. No way any one with a serious face can look at this year, he’ll even last year and compare recruiting to years prior. AtM set the bar and now there’s no turning back until rules are changed. This would of been(still can) a hell of a class. 
I just hope Freeman doesn’t get to sucked in and starts getting gaps with his recruiting classes because he starts to miss. Which by the way, I don’t think he’s doing or will do. But, I’m glad ND is finally in on some top talent. I just wished it was the other way around where ND is doing the poaching and not trying to hold on for dear life for a top recruit. 
 

Disagree. 21 and 22 are good classes. And 21 class is very underrated. Alt, Diggs, and Evans were less ranked guys, who will be (or already) studs. And if Buchner had hit, people would have different attitude on 21. 

And if we lose Bowen, or even both, this class is arguably not as good as either 21 and 22. 

I think they keep everyone, dont get anyone new. Other schools will get some people and ND will fall 2-3 spots.

I said 7 and lose both. I think the class has always been a bit of vaporware. It is easy for guys to commit to ND in a feel good moment impressing their parents and taking about the 40 year plan but when that Bama BBQ and bag o cash rolls in that is when reality sets in.

 

FWIW my brain was below the waist from the time I was 15 until about 25 so following your girl to college makes sense. 45 year old me can tell you how bad an idea it is, but it is what it is.

13 minutes ago, EddieAngel said:

I said 7 and lose both. I think the class has always been a bit of vaporware. It is easy for guys to commit to ND in a feel good moment impressing their parents and taking about the 40 year plan but when that Bama BBQ and bag o cash rolls in that is when reality sets in.

 

FWIW my brain was below the waist from the time I was 15 until about 25 so following your girl to college makes sense. 45 year old me can tell you how bad an idea it is, but it is what it is.

I wonder if UNLV has Bunny Ranch NIL deals?

 

As expected, we've been jumped by a few folks...

No longer #3. Currently #6

 

Jumped by Texas, Miami, and LSU in that order. 

As expected, Miami added a 5 star OT. TX added a 5 star LB. LSU added a top 10 CB. 

 

It's only time that OSU jumps us, and we'll be #7 if we don't add more. 

Others gaining ground too. 

One interesting observation is that ND has fewer 3 stars than all but four schools. So ND while is trailing on the very high end, they, at least, may have fewer "projects".

I wonder if this reflects that ND's NIL value proposition of every player getting tens of thousands of dollars is attractive to the tier of players just below those who are rumored to be getting 'guaranteed' high six figure/seven figure upfront money.

37 minutes ago, jbrown_9999 said:

I wonder if this reflects that ND's NIL value proposition of every player getting tens of thousands of dollars is attractive to the tier of players just below those who are rumored to be getting 'guaranteed' high six figure/seven figure upfront money.

There seems to be some doubts to this recently and perhaps the reason that many players jumped ship after their first year at big NIL schools. 

My guess is these "contracts" were very favorable to the boosters and many kids signed without reading/understanding the fine print. 

 

The next few days will be interesting. I don't see us improving our status. There are a few 3 star guys we could add, unless there is a surprise of no where. If we lose either kids, it'll hurt. If we lose Bowen, looking like we'll drop outside the top 10. That would suck after a great and promising start. 

13 hours ago, jbrown_9999 said:

One interesting observation is that ND has fewer 3 stars than all but four schools. So ND while is trailing on the very high end, they, at least, may have fewer "projects".

I wonder if this reflects that ND's NIL value proposition of every player getting tens of thousands of dollars is attractive to the tier of players just below those who are rumored to be getting 'guaranteed' high six figure/seven figure upfront money.

We have 6-8ish guys that are borderline guys (just barely 4 stars), that are outside of the top 250. And we only four 3 star kids last year, so very similar. OSU, Bama, FL, TAMU, and UGA have similar or less 3 star kids. Regardless, still nice. We just need to improve on the 5 star and high 4 star kids. And that will happen with Ws....!

13 hours ago, SDIrishFan said:

There seems to be some doubts to this recently and perhaps the reason that many players jumped ship after their first year at big NIL schools. 

My guess is these "contracts" were very favorable to the boosters and many kids signed without reading/understanding the fine print. 

There is some chatter that the conferences and some schools at minimum, that are educating the kids of reality of NIL. For instance UGA is rumored (good sources) to tell the truth and what to look for. I'm guessing that's to either 1) protect the kids, 2) to protect the schools, and/or 3) to combat some stuff from other school's booster collectives. 

Both Wiltfong and Drumm switched their CBs to OK.. 

If he flips, we'd drop to 9 or 10. And several other schools right behind us, assume additions. 

 

Edited December 17, 20221 yr by OKelleyIrish

 

Wiltfong and Loy both flipped their Limar CB to Oregon this morning... 

Ouch... Losing both Limar and Bowen would likely knock out of the top 10. 

Really sucks for RB... 

The below is strange, as it's 50/50 now. Only one counted for OR so far. Update?

 

 

Edited December 19, 20221 yr by OKelleyIrish

I'm resigned to the idea we lose both.  Bowen camp seems to be crickets.  The thing about Limar that strikes me is that McCullough had planned a late visit but canceled it, apparently??  That sounds like a serious communication breakdown - something to the effect of don't bother - 'you can't change my mind' or 'I need some space'.  He's a Duck.

Restating a lot of the above, but the RB roster isn't super deep, but it's talented.  Estime, Diggs, Tyree, Price, Payne, and Jeremiah Love is going to be a player (although not EE I don't think).

As to safeties, will hinge on Joseph some, but we have starter experience returning.  DJ Brown has a Covid year, right?  Watts, Henderson.  If we were counting on Freshmen, Schuler and Minich are both quality depth.  We wouldn't know Bowen would even beat them out unless we get to spring with all 3.  Some corners will be making the switch to safety, I bet, too.

Edited December 19, 20221 yr by JeffV

3 hours ago, JeffV said:

I'm resigned to the idea we lose both.  Bowen camp seems to be crickets.  The thing about Limar that strikes me is that McCullough had planned a late visit but canceled it, apparently??  That sounds like a serious communication breakdown - something to the effect of don't bother - 'you can't change my mind' or 'I need some space'.  He's a Duck.

Restating a lot of the above, but the RB roster isn't super deep, but it's talented.  Estime, Diggs, Tyree, Price, Payne, and Jeremiah Love is going to be a player (although not EE I don't think).

As to safeties, will hinge on Joseph some, but we have starter experience returning.  DJ Brown has a Covid year, right?  Watts, Henderson.  If we were counting on Freshmen, Schuler and Minich are both quality depth.  We wouldn't know Bowen would even beat them out unless we get to spring with all 3.  Some corners will be making the switch to safety, I bet, too.

It sounds like Limar is 100% flipping to Oregon. I think the RB room is fine - they don't need 8 guys in the room when only 2-3 get meaningful touches. The key is Price coming back fully healthy. If Tyree is on the team next year, I'd imagine he would move full time to the slot, while Diggs, Estime, and Price are the lead backs. Price was really impressive in camp, so he very well could be the starter next season if he's healthy.

As to Bowen, ND's outlook has improved since last week (he nearly cancelled ND's last in-home visit), but I would still have a hard time seeing him not end up at OU. I doubt he wants to publicly decommit to face all the backlash, so if he's flipping to OU, he will just announce on NSD. I don't think ND is completely out of it, but I would be borderline shocked if he signs with ND.

Safety is an issue where ND will need to grab a guy or two in the portal. Joseph hasn't announced, but he said his intention was to play here one year. He walked on senior day. He might be awaiting feedback from the NFL, but I would be really surprised if he comes back. I hope he does because that would really improve the outlook of the room. I think Watts starts, but not sure who the second would be. DJ Brown might leave, and Henderson has not been impressive at all during his time here, IMO. Think ND definitely needs to grab someone from the portal.