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2021 Week 13 Rankings


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7 hours ago, Domers23 said:

I have not read all of the posts diligently and this may have been said already. I apologize if it has. I truly believe that if Notre Dame goes into Palo Alto and curb stomps Stanford and Cincinnati wins out with standard wins, nd has A realistic shot of jumping Cincinnati.

Cincinnati’s strength of schedule is just freaking awful and the committee knows that.  If those two played right now Notre Dame would win more than likely.  Notre Dame also makes them a shit load ton of money more than Cincinnati.  I truly believe there is a scenario that Notre Dame Jumps Cincinnati even if they don’t lose.  What say you?

Depends if the committee looks at head to head like they did between OSU/Oregon or if they look at it like they did between Michigan/MSU lol.  Do I think Notre Dame would beat Cinci if they played again?  Yes.  I think most probably think that.  Hopefully there are enough members on the committee that feel the same way.  However, I'm not sure this happens unless Cinci loses somewhere.  I doubt they jump ND over an undefeated Cinci.

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Here is a decent write-up of where ND stands for CFP. IMO, spots 7, 8, and 9 are subject to debate and that is what will make the next two weeks interesting since head-to-head match-ups mean that those spots will most likely turn into final CFP rankings of #4, #5, and #6.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/notre-dame-college-football-playoff-path/gyapz702yvbm18u5w5o6ccbwy

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So, knowing that, here is where Notre Dame's resume would stack up against the potential final resumes in two weeks. Here are the possible resumes among the contenders, ranked in order. 

1. Georgia (13-0): There is no debate to be had here. 

2. Alabama (12-1): The Crimson Tide would have five wins against ranked teams and a victory against No. 1 Georgia. 

3. Ohio State (12-1): The Buckeyes would have four victories against ranked opponents at that point, and that includes top-10 victories against Michigan State and Michigan. 

4. Georgia (12-1): If the Bulldogs lose to Alabama in the SEC championship game, then they will be forgiven with a likely No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the CFP if the rest of the chalk holds. 

5. Michigan (12-1): If the Wolverines finally beat Ohio State, then win a Big Ten championship, they will be in the CFP with Jim Harbaugh as a No. 2 or No. 3. 

6. Cincinnati (13-0): The Bearcats are in decent position knowing either Ohio State or Michigan has to lose, and they can survive the two-SEC team scenario now. Plus, they have the head-to-head on Notre Dame. 

7. Alabama (11-2): Would the committee put the two-loss Crimson Tide in over the Irish? We think they would unless they get blown out by Georgia or trip up against Auburn. 

8. Notre Dame (11-1): This is is where the Irish stand. It's just a matter of which resumes above them get knocked off. The Irish have just one victory against a ranked opponent, and that could be four-loss Wisconsin.   

9. Oklahoma State (12-1): The Cowboys can make a run at the Irish knowing they would have the luxury of a Power 5 championship. They could have five victories against ranked opponents at that point. Notre Dame should worry here. 

10. Oklahoma (12-1): The Sooners have the brand-name value, but that string of one-score losses hurts their profile along with a blowout loss at Baylor. 

11. Ohio State (11-2): A loss to the Big Ten West champion would knock the Buckeyes out despite the victories against Michigan State and Michigan at that point. 

12. Michigan (11-2): The same rule applies. Even if the Wolverines finally conquer the Buckeyes, they still need to finish off the conference title in Indianapolis. 

13. Cincinnati (12-1): The Bearcats are done with one loss, and they know it. 

 

Edited by jbrown_9999
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The more i think about this it likely comes down to a very simple equation.   If Alabama beats Georgia  then they are both in, that 4th spot likely will NOT open up and we have to settle for 5

If Georgia beats Bama that opens slot 4 and we are most likely the ones taking it....

I havent seen much of georgia but they are only giving up 7 points a game, thats pretty awesome in this day and age...still alabama is terrific as well....that game is close to 50/50 and so are our chances!

Yes there are a few other factors...a cinci loss is a plus...getting jumped by oklahoma or ok state is a minus..wisconsin win is a long shot plus...

But really i think our hopes for the playoff rest with georgia.....they win we're in!....they lose we're out!

Going to be a big game for us that we dont even play....gotta love college football !

aloha

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Just now, hawaiiirish said:

The more i think about this it likely comes down to a very simple equation.   If Alabama beats Georgia  then they are both in, that 4th spot likely will NOT open up and we have to settle for 5

If Georgia beats Bama that opens slot 4 and we are most likely the ones taking it....

I havent seen much of georgia but they are only giving up 7 points a game, thats pretty awesome in this day and age...still alabama is terrific as well....that game is close to 50/50 and so are our chances!

Yes there are a few other factors...a cinci loss is a plus...getting jumped by oklahoma or ok state is a minus..wisconsin win is a long shot plus...

But really i think our hopes for the playoff rest with georgia.....they win we're in!....they lose we're out!

Going to be a big game for us that we dont even play....gotta love college football !

aloha

Definitely agree with this too. Love your posts @hawaiiirish. Always have. always will.

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2 hours ago, hawaiiirish said:

The more i think about this it likely comes down to a very simple equation.   If Alabama beats Georgia  then they are both in, that 4th spot likely will NOT open up and we have to settle for 5

If Georgia beats Bama that opens slot 4 and we are most likely the ones taking it....

I havent seen much of georgia but they are only giving up 7 points a game, thats pretty awesome in this day and age...still alabama is terrific as well....that game is close to 50/50 and so are our chances!

Yes there are a few other factors...a cinci loss is a plus...getting jumped by oklahoma or ok state is a minus..wisconsin win is a long shot plus...

But really i think our hopes for the playoff rest with georgia.....they win we're in!....they lose we're out!

Going to be a big game for us that we dont even play....gotta love college football !

aloha

Agree 100%. A one loss OK state I think might be a toss up, but any other ND is in at #4 in that scenario

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7 hours ago, hawaiiirish said:

The more i think about this it likely comes down to a very simple equation.   If Alabama beats Georgia  then they are both in, that 4th spot likely will NOT open up and we have to settle for 5

If Georgia beats Bama that opens slot 4 and we are most likely the ones taking it....

I havent seen much of georgia but they are only giving up 7 points a game, thats pretty awesome in this day and age...still alabama is terrific as well....that game is close to 50/50 and so are our chances!

Yes there are a few other factors...a cinci loss is a plus...getting jumped by oklahoma or ok state is a minus..wisconsin win is a long shot plus...

But really i think our hopes for the playoff rest with georgia.....they win we're in!....they lose we're out!

Going to be a big game for us that we dont even play....gotta love college football !

aloha

I would not put it past the committee to put a 2 loss Bama with a very close loss to Georgia in over ND. 
 

what needs to happen (ignore the Big 10,  no one is beating Ohio State):

-Bama needs to lose handily to Georgia. Losing to Auburn and beating Georgia is not a good thing and the thought makes my head spin. 
 

-Cinci needs to lose. We will jump a one loss Cinci. The playoff is still interested in viewership, ND is the better team at this point and will also bring in more revenue. 
 

-Big 12 champ needs two losses. A 1 loss OU or OSU gets in. I actually think it’s likely the Big 12 champ has one loss. They get in over ND as they both would have far superior resumes and a Conference championship.   
 

I’m not a statistics guy but I think those are in order of most probable. 
 

locks 

1-UGA

2-OSU

There are scenarios for 3 and 4, however odds are we get UGA if we get in at all. I don’t like our chances vs either. 

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13 hours ago, jbrown_9999 said:

Here is a decent write-up of where ND stands for CFP. IMO, spots 7, 8, and 9 are subject to debate and that is what will make the next two weeks interesting since head-to-head match-ups mean that those spots will most likely turn into final CFP rankings of #4, #5, and #6.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/notre-dame-college-football-playoff-path/gyapz702yvbm18u5w5o6ccbwy

 

OK St definitely jumps ND if they win out. Just not sure there will be much debate. OK winning out would be close, but most all predictive models I've seen have OK in if they win out. 

Not worried about a 2 loss Bama unless it's like a one point loss, or loss in OT.

And not worried at all about a 2 loss OSU. 

A one loss Cinci isn't going to make it over ND. ND has tracked up and up, and Cinci has looked mediocre several times until their win vs SMU. ND would have to look equally bad vs Stanford IMO for that to happen.

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I am so excited about these next two weeks!

Thank you coaches Kelly, Freeman, and Rees!  Notre Dame football hasn’t looked this solid in DECADES!  
 

As much as Ohio State looks invincible, if there’s one thing this season has shown, we really don’t know what will happen in any given week. 
 

The future looks bright indeed for ND football. The fact that ND is even sniffing the CFP this week is worth celebrating right now. 
 

Go Irish!  

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11 hours ago, AnTostal said:

I am so excited about these next two weeks!

Thank you coaches Kelly, Freeman, and Rees!  Notre Dame football hasn’t looked this solid in DECADES!  
 

As much as Ohio State looks invincible, if there’s one thing this season has shown, we really don’t know what will happen in any given week. 
 

The future looks bright indeed for ND football. The fact that ND is even sniffing the CFP this week is worth celebrating right now. 
 

Go Irish!  

me too.

i would really prefer to get a winnable NY6 bowl, but regardless, it will be damn interesting

 

giphy.gif

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30 minutes ago, TexasDomer said:

I know a lot of people agreed, but this didn't age well.

This crow is delicious!!!!!

28 minutes ago, TexasDomer said:

What I do NOT want is to play OSU in a NY6 game.

No definitely not.  That is why I am hoping Michigan pulls away a bit more.  

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2 hours ago, NDhoosier said:

Wisconsin has a better shot of beating UM on a neutral field than OSU in my opinion. Michigan is still definitely the favorite.

This is my take as well.

To beat Michigan, you have to stop the run.  Wisconsin has the defense to do that.  Ohio State’s defense is pitiful.  

Aside from Georgia, this is looking like the easiest playoff picture I can ever recall.

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14 minutes ago, Green Goblin said:

This is my take as well.

To beat Michigan, you have to stop the run.  Wisconsin has the defense to do that.  Ohio State’s defense is pitiful.  

Aside from Georgia, this is looking like the easiest playoff picture I can ever recall.

The problem is Wisconsin’s offense is so so bad. 

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2 hours ago, NDhoosier said:

Ohio State should be behind Notre Dame now. They better not be ahead of Ok State either (as long as Ok State is still a 1 loss team)

You know the committee. They love sucking Ohio State. They will no question be behind us of just behind whoever wins the battle of Oklahoma. You know. Just to give them an outside shit of making it. 

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