2023 Recruiting Prospects

[irishwavend]

1 hour ago, coltssb said:

I hope it’s truly the place he wants to be and not just some money grab. From the outside that’s what it seems. 

To me, it seems like a guy who knows he’s gonna play in the NFL and is working to build his brand, now.  Tough to pass up a relationship with Nike at 18 and heading into what has the strong probability of being a lengthy future.  

That’s where we are - kids starting their actual careers at 18 in football and having to build their brands now.  Same as other sports with young athletes like golf…no different.

[coltssb]

5 minutes ago, irishwavend said:

To me, it seems like a guy who knows he’s gonna play in the NFL and is working to build his brand, now.  Tough to pass up a relationship with Nike at 18 and heading into what has the strong probability of being a lengthy future.  

That’s where we are - kids starting their actual careers at 18 in football and having to build their brands now.  Same as other sports with young athletes like golf…no different.

That’s a lot of if’s?   There’s no guarantee that you’ll make it in the NFL. The percentages are very low. Even for top ranked recruits. If you’re too busy “branding” yourself for the future and not preparing for college football, you’re more than likely to get a nutt shot of reality real fast. 

[4thand1]

I wish Moore good luck but I truly wouldn't want him at ND after the way the recruitment played out.  

[EddieAngel]

My top 2 for Moore were ND and not LSU. I am ok with the outcome.

[soulpatch]

9 hours ago, coltssb said:

That’s a lot of if’s?   There’s no guarantee that you’ll make it in the NFL. The percentages are very low. Even for top ranked recruits. If you’re too busy “branding” yourself for the future and not preparing for college football, you’re more than likely to get a nutt shot of reality real fast. 

Agreed that the percentages are low. But, alternatively, the vast majority of college football players don't receive an education that prepares them for a post-college non-athletic career, let alone have available time or focus factor to consider non-football concerns without running the risk of eroding what little chance they have of an NFL career. Put another way, at this point in his life, someone at Moore's level is already so invested in football and so unlikely to establish the basis of another career over the next 2-3 years that he might as well continue to ride out this path. 

[ND_JACK]

My advice if you want to be “branded” you just graduate from ND. Then playing football and being a star player is just icing on the cake. I know this because I graduated from ND and because of that doors have always opened for me. Both professionally and just in general life, people recognize and respect the ND brand even today I think.

[Synoptico]

12 hours ago, coltssb said:

I hope it’s truly the place he wants to be and not just some money grab. From the outside that’s what it seems. 

I mean lots of people take jobs for money. It is probably the way now. Also, a large amount of CFB recruits end up at different schools than they start out in. 

[irishwavend]

11 hours ago, coltssb said:

That’s a lot of if’s?   There’s no guarantee that you’ll make it in the NFL. The percentages are very low. Even for top ranked recruits. If you’re too busy “branding” yourself for the future and not preparing for college football, you’re more than likely to get a nutt shot of reality real fast. 

He’s a five star.  The probability is INCREDIBLY high for him if you look at the percentages.  They are very low for 3 star recruits by 5 stars have a great chance.

Also, if you’re a 5 star and not going to make it, you should parlay that 5 star money into money from endorsements, etc, now.  Could you imagine walking out of college into the real world with a few million bucks?

Notre Dame needs to make sure it is keeping up with this reality.  College is for careers in whatever manner that career develops…classroom, on the field, or through 3rd parties.

[coltssb]

48 minutes ago, Synoptico said:

I mean lots of people take jobs for money. It is probably the way now. Also, a large amount of CFB recruits end up at different schools than they start out in. 

Right. How many of these people have buyers remorse. Either they hate their job or not owned they stayed or took the better job. You see these sorts of terrible decisions all the time. Blake Barnett comes to mind. He did amazingly well at the 5 different schools he transferred to…

[jbrown_9999]

13 hours ago, coltssb said:

I hope it’s truly the place he wants to be and not just some money grab. From the outside that’s what it seems. 

I have seen mentions that Moore's father is pushing Dante to pick a school to try to max NIL money. Hard to criticize that advice if it ends up being around $2M. That amount can be life changing for most people.

[coltssb]

15 minutes ago, irishwavend said:

He’s a five star.  The probability is INCREDIBLY high for him if you look at the percentages.  They are very low for 3 star recruits by 5 stars have a great chance.

Also, if you’re a 5 star and not going to make it, you should parlay that 5 star money into money from endorsements, etc, now.  Could you imagine walking out of college into the real world with a few million bucks?

Notre Dame needs to make sure it is keeping up with this reality.  College is for careers in whatever manner that career develops…classroom, on the field, or through 3rd parties.

this has really been talked about at ad nauseam.  This article shows that being a 5 star demonstrates just the opposite of what you are saying  More 3 star guys are drafted than 5 stars.  
 

Anyways, get that money as you can  free market society.  Doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at your job.  As mentioned before, I’m pretty sure his mom is a doctor and probably demonstrates the smarts to talk to the young lad about many things pertaining to making a buck and making good decisions.  However, (I could be completely wrong on this), it might be his dad in his ear about making as much NIL and branding yourself for the future.  I’m getting Lavar Ball vibes.  Sure it worked for two of his kids, but that isn’t always the case.  Especially, for the NFL which is incredibly hard to get to.

Also, let’s face it.  A few million now isn’t exactly what it was 10 years ago.  Sure it would be nice to not have college loans right now, but that’s life  

 

https://www.thedailystampede.com/platform/amp/2021/11/9/22757052/usf-college-football-recruiting-star-rankings-signing-day-info-news-average-nfl-draft-trends

[coltssb]

7 minutes ago, jbrown_9999 said:

I have seen mentions that Moore's father is pushing Dante to pick a school to try to max NIL money. Hard to criticize that advice if it ends up being around $2M. That amount can be life changing for most people.

Read post above. 2million is nice. But where do you go if your Jamarcus Russell in a few years?  

[Synoptico]

20 minutes ago, coltssb said:

this has really been talked about at ad nauseam.  This article shows that being a 5 star demonstrates just the opposite of what you are saying  More 3 star guys are drafted than 5 stars.  
 

Anyways, get that money as you can  free market society.  Doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at your job.  As mentioned before, I’m pretty sure his mom is a doctor and probably demonstrates the smarts to talk to the young lad about many things pertaining to making a buck and making good decisions.  However, (I could be completely wrong on this), it might be his dad in his ear about making as much NIL and branding yourself for the future.  I’m getting Lavar Ball vibes.  Sure it worked for two of his kids, but that isn’t always the case.  Especially, for the NFL which is incredibly hard to get to.

Also, let’s face it.  A few million now isn’t exactly what it was 10 years ago.  Sure it would be nice to not have college loans right now, but that’s life  

 

https://www.thedailystampede.com/platform/amp/2021/11/9/22757052/usf-college-football-recruiting-star-rankings-signing-day-info-news-average-nfl-draft-trends

 

Percentage wise that is incorrect. More 3 stars are drafted because it is a higher number of 3 stars, but the percentage of 5 stars (there are only around 25 a year vs hundreds of 3 stars) is higher for 5 stars. % stars have a better "hit" rate

[irishwavend]

1 hour ago, Synoptico said:

 

Percentage wise that is incorrect. More 3 stars are drafted because it is a higher number of 3 stars, but the percentage of 5 stars (there are only around 25 a year vs hundreds of 3 stars) is higher for 5 stars. % stars have a better "hit" rate

Years ago I think I mentioned pinning posts like this since they always seem to creep up and we have to correct it, again and again.  Out of 33 5 stars 20 got drafted - 61%.  Yes, quite a few 3 stars go pro but there are thousands of 3 stars.  There are 2,087 3 stars and 110 got drafted.  That’s 5%….much worse odds.

[AnTostal]

2 hours ago, Synoptico said:

 

Percentage wise that is incorrect. More 3 stars are drafted because it is a higher number of 3 stars, but the percentage of 5 stars (there are only around 25 a year vs hundreds of 3 stars) is higher for 5 stars. % stars have a better "hit" rate

This really has me wondering about the two 5* QB's (Manning, Ewers),the University of Texas, and how that plays out.   Separate years, of course, but they'll be there at the same time as of 2023.  Incidentally, there have apparently only been seven players with a 1.00 rating by Rivals/24/7, and 3 of those were QB's.  All three QB's went (or will be going) to Texas:  Vince Young, Quinn Ewers, and now Arch Manning.

[coltssb]

1 hour ago, irishwavend said:

Years ago I think I mentioned pinning posts like this since they always seem to creep up and we have to correct it, again and again.  Out of 33 5 stars 20 got drafted - 61%.  Yes, quite a few 3 stars go pro but there are thousands of 3 stars.  There are 2,087 3 stars and 110 got drafted.  That’s 5%….much worse odds.

My original point was I hope the guy isn’t worried about branding over football. Branding yourself everyday and trying to be a professional athlete are two career jobs. I think it’s a setting you up for disaster for the future. It’s why Tom Brady the likely GOAT didn’t start branding until his 12th year in the league. The time when he already won 2 Super Bowl and was well established. It’s why those dopey Paul YouTubers are now boxing. Branding yourself only goes so far. Got to put in the work at some point. 
BUT, we can go down this rabbits hole if you want. Let’s move the goal posts if you will. Why not?  I’m feeling cheeky. 
Are we in agreement that all though they do a good job, recruiting sites can be wrong and misleading?  If that’s in agreement than what are we taking about here?  There’s no guarantee that Moore will be a stud in the pros let alone in college just because he has a 5 star rating. We just agreed that recruiting sites can be wrong. Mitch Mustain, Dayne Crist,  Ryan Perilloux, Aaron Corp, Max Browne, and Fred Rouse prove that point.  Also, just because you are stud in college doesn’t mean you don’t have to put in the work at the next level.  Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Johnny Manziel etc to prove that point. It’s a full time job and even the best struggle to do it consistently. So if he’s worried about “branding” over football…good luck. 
Back to recruiting sites and them being wrong more than they are right. Which by the way was Moneyball’s philosophy…you don’t actually know who is going to be great or succeed at the next level. It’s a crap shoot. 
But continuing…could the fact that more three stars are drafted and that the NFL go that route is because these scouts can’t truly predict who a 5 star or three star really is?  It’s all guesstimate. 
That’s why they draft more 3 stars! The recruiting sites have it wrong!  And if they had it wrong, shouldn’t they have more 5 stars on their evaluations before they get to college?  Why not?  Because they don’t know shit. They are scared to give out too many 5 stars. They don’t want to ruin their name. They want to be used as the expert on things. They know if they frig up that their site is no longer deemed credible.  So they try and choose wisely. The kid that is dominating his league because he’s either stronger or taller or a Can’t Miss!  Well how the hell are they can’t miss when all they do is miss?  40-50 percent of the time most years. So, no, I not in agreement of this so called better hit ratio of 5 stars based off of recruiting sites that have no idea on how to really judge talent. 

[Synoptico]

1 hour ago, coltssb said:

My original point was I hope the guy isn’t worried about branding over football. Branding yourself everyday and trying to be a professional athlete are two career jobs. I think it’s a setting you up for disaster for the future. It’s why Tom Brady the likely GOAT didn’t start branding until his 12th year in the league. The time when he already won 2 Super Bowl and was well established. It’s why those dopey Paul YouTubers are now boxing. Branding yourself only goes so far. Got to put in the work at some point. 
BUT, we can go down this rabbits hole if you want. Let’s move the goal posts if you will. Why not?  I’m feeling cheeky. 
Are we in agreement that all though they do a good job, recruiting sites can be wrong and misleading?  If that’s in agreement than what are we taking about here?  There’s no guarantee that Moore will be a stud in the pros let alone in college just because he has a 5 star rating. We just agreed that recruiting sites can be wrong. Mitch Mustain, Dayne Crist,  Ryan Perilloux, Aaron Corp, Max Browne, and Fred Rouse prove that point.  Also, just because you are stud in college doesn’t mean you don’t have to put in the work at the next level.  Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Johnny Manziel etc to prove that point. It’s a full time job and even the best struggle to do it consistently. So if he’s worried about “branding” over football…good luck. 
Back to recruiting sites and them being wrong more than they are right. Which by the way was Moneyball’s philosophy…you don’t actually know who is going to be great or succeed at the next level. It’s a crap shoot. 
But continuing…could the fact that more three stars are drafted and that the NFL go that route is because these scouts can’t truly predict who a 5 star or three star really is?  It’s all guesstimate. 
That’s why they draft more 3 stars! The recruiting sites have it wrong!  And if they had it wrong, shouldn’t they have more 5 stars on their evaluations before they get to college?  Why not?  Because they don’t know shit. They are scared to give out too many 5 stars. They don’t want to ruin their name. They want to be used as the expert on things. They know if they frig up that their site is no longer deemed credible.  So they try and choose wisely. The kid that is dominating his league because he’s either stronger or taller or a Can’t Miss!  Well how the hell are they can’t miss when all they do is miss?  40-50 percent of the time most years. So, no, I not in agreement of this so called better hit ratio of 5 stars based off of recruiting sites that have no idea on how to really judge talent. 

I mean by this logic more 1st round draft picks (NFL version of 5 star, top 25 players) flame out of the NFL than rounds 2-7 (3 stars, hundreds of them), so the NFL scouts have it wrong too

[The Captain 19]

I'm no QB play guru by any stretch but am I the only one that doesn't think Arch is all that and a bag of chips? Don't get me wrong. He's got undeniable talent.....but if his last name wasn't Manning would the hype be the same?

Asking for a friend. 

[lazard]

1 hour ago, The Captain 19 said:

I'm no QB play guru by any stretch but am I the only one that doesn't think Arch is all that and a bag of chips? Don't get me wrong. He's got undeniable talent.....but if his last name wasn't Manning would the hype be the same?

Asking for a friend. 

It's anyone's guess.  He could be the next Peyton Manning or the next Jimmy Clausen.

 

[coltssb]

4 hours ago, Synoptico said:

I mean by this logic more 1st round draft picks (NFL version of 5 star, top 25 players) flame out of the NFL than rounds 2-7 (3 stars, hundreds of them), so the NFL scouts have it wrong too

Yes. This I agree with. Tom Brady was a sixth round pick. Moneyball is now used pretty much in all of baseball. WAR-teams are looking at computers. It’s why there’s the shift. The reason they don’t have it at football or basketball yet is because they haven’t found a formula. But they are trying. And when that comes, scouts will be gone forever. At least that’s my opinion obviously. 

[ND_JACK]

I know it is not going to least forever but isn’t it great to see ND # 1 in 247 recruiting today for both the 2023 & 2024 classes …..I now have a good reason to have a beer tonight!

[jbrown_9999]

8 hours ago, coltssb said:

My original point was I hope the guy isn’t worried about branding over football. Branding yourself everyday and trying to be a professional athlete are two career jobs. I think it’s a setting you up for disaster for the future. It’s why Tom Brady the likely GOAT didn’t start branding until his 12th year in the league. The time when he already won 2 Super Bowl and was well established. It’s why those dopey Paul YouTubers are now boxing. Branding yourself only goes so far. Got to put in the work at some point. 
BUT, we can go down this rabbits hole if you want. Let’s move the goal posts if you will. Why not?  I’m feeling cheeky. 
Are we in agreement that all though they do a good job, recruiting sites can be wrong and misleading?  If that’s in agreement than what are we taking about here?  There’s no guarantee that Moore will be a stud in the pros let alone in college just because he has a 5 star rating. We just agreed that recruiting sites can be wrong. Mitch Mustain, Dayne Crist,  Ryan Perilloux, Aaron Corp, Max Browne, and Fred Rouse prove that point.  Also, just because you are stud in college doesn’t mean you don’t have to put in the work at the next level.  Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Johnny Manziel etc to prove that point. It’s a full time job and even the best struggle to do it consistently. So if he’s worried about “branding” over football…good luck. 
Back to recruiting sites and them being wrong more than they are right. Which by the way was Moneyball’s philosophy…you don’t actually know who is going to be great or succeed at the next level. It’s a crap shoot. 
But continuing…could the fact that more three stars are drafted and that the NFL go that route is because these scouts can’t truly predict who a 5 star or three star really is?  It’s all guesstimate. 
That’s why they draft more 3 stars! The recruiting sites have it wrong!  And if they had it wrong, shouldn’t they have more 5 stars on their evaluations before they get to college?  Why not?  Because they don’t know shit. They are scared to give out too many 5 stars. They don’t want to ruin their name. They want to be used as the expert on things. They know if they frig up that their site is no longer deemed credible.  So they try and choose wisely. The kid that is dominating his league because he’s either stronger or taller or a Can’t Miss!  Well how the hell are they can’t miss when all they do is miss?  40-50 percent of the time most years. So, no, I not in agreement of this so called better hit ratio of 5 stars based off of recruiting sites that have no idea on how to really judge talent. 

You have to look at percentage of five stars drafted. Not absolute numbers

[AnTostal]

3 hours ago, ND_JACK said:

I know it is not going to least forever but isn’t it great to see ND # 1 in 247 recruiting today for both the 2023 & 2024 classes …..I now have a good reason to have a beer tonight!

I was talking with an LSU alum today. He thinks BK is doing a great job with recruiting. When I told him ND has the current #1 classes for both 2023 and 2024, getting players BK said would never go to ND, he just couldn’t believe it.  LSU’s current 2023 class is ranked 41. That will change, of course, but Freeman is doing things BK said we’re just not possible at ND. 

Edited June 25 by AnTostal

[Synoptico]

On 6/23/2022 at 10:23 PM, coltssb said:

That’s a lot of if’s?   There’s no guarantee that you’ll make it in the NFL. The percentages are very low. Even for top ranked recruits. If you’re too busy “branding” yourself for the future and not preparing for college football, you’re more than likely to get a nutt shot of reality real fast. 

yeah but if he flames out, he already has the bag

[mcgov12]

17 hours ago, AnTostal said:

I was talking with an LSU alum today. He thinks BK is doing a great job with recruiting. When I told him ND has the current #1 classes for both 2023 and 2024, getting players BK said would never go to ND, he just couldn’t believe it.  LSU’s current 2023 class is ranked 41. That will change, of course, but Freeman is doing things BK said we’re just not possible at ND. 

He’s going to have a hell of a time selling LSU to top players in the south when Saban, Fisher, Smart, etc are leading the recruiting efforts for their schools and he decides to jump in when he feels like it