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Only turnovers can defeat Kelly


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I knew his record was good when ND didn't turn it over, but I ran the numbers and was amazed at how good. Under Kelly, here is the win-loss record broken down by turnovers.

 

0 - 15-0

1 - 14-1 (the one loss was Bama)

2 - 6-4

3 - 4-7

4 - 1-1

5 - 1-2

 

So ND is 29-0 in the regular season when they don't have more than 1 TO and 35-4 when they have 2 or fewer, and these are irrespective if what the opponent did.

 

Further, If every ND loss under Kelly, all but Stanford (ND -1) in 2010 and Stanford (TO were even)in 2012 came with ND losing the turnover battle or being even. So essentially, if Nd wins the TO battle, they've only lost 1 time under Kelly.

 

So Everett, let's learn to hang into the ball.

Edited by corysold
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Thanks Cory... would be curious to see if this holds for all premier teams.

 

Where do you get your numbers?

 

These I got from cfbstats.com.

 

If you search teams and pick ND, you can get a game by game log of every stat they track. So I went game by game and totaled it.

 

Beware, I've started looking before and an hour later was still at it.

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Been saying this for awhile. When Tommy took care of the ball even he won

 

When he didn't - he threw 9 of his 13 picks in 4 losses last year - they lost.

 

EG is much better equipped to overcome turnovers, but the point remains TO's is usually the deciding factor

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I'd be interested in seeing what other coaches records are when their team has zero or one turnover.

 

Over the last 5 seasons:

 

Saban 17-1 with 0. 21-1 with 1.

Richt 12-2 14-6

Fisher 7-1 20-3

Stoops 9-0 19-3

Spurrier 10-1 20-3

 

Note, 5 times in this span ND has beaten a team who had no turnovers.

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Over the last 5 seasons:

 

Saban 17-1 with 0. 21-1 with 1.

Richt 12-2 14-6

Fisher 7-1 20-3

Stoops 9-0 19-3

Spurrier 10-1 20-3

 

Note, 5 times in this span ND has beaten a team who had no turnovers.

 

kinda of what I expected. and thanks for digging it up.

55-5 combined with zero turnovers.

 

I would imagine most coaches have decent records with no turnovers.

 

your point speaks to Kelly's philosophy of knowing he can be in every game or win every game when his team doesn't turn it over. it is why he was so cautious with punt returns in 2012 and 2013. he knew his squad wasn't exceptional enough to make up for those back-breaking, game changing turnovers.

 

even now, I bet many of us are nervous each time Riggs catches a punt.

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Those coaches also have the best teams.

 

For example, Kirk Ferentz is only 9-4 in that span with 0 TO and 16-6 with 1.

 

Over that time, Wake Forest is 7-6 with 0 TOs and 8-13 with 1.

 

So you need a good team before you just always win with few TOs.

Edited by corysold
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Those coaches also have the best teams.

 

For example, Kirk Ferentz is only 9-4 in that span with 0 TO and 16-6 with 1.

 

good point.

 

you are most likely correct if we looked at every coach there is going to be a tipping point based on talent.

 

But I wonder if the line to draw is the teams that go undefeated just don't turn the ball over that much.

 

like maybe some lowly school never turns the ball over but is 2-10. they just aren't that good.

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Those coaches also have the best teams.

 

For example, Kirk Ferentz is only 9-4 in that span with 0 TO and 16-6 with 1.

 

Over that time, Wake Forest is 7-6 with 0 TOs and 8-13 with 1.

 

So you need a good team before you just always win with few TOs.

 

Exactly... what it tells me is that the TO:Win correlation is an indicator of an "elite" top 10 team in terms of talent / potential / coaching

 

The next stat to examine is record vs TO margin per game.

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This seems true based on what I've watched the last 4 or 5 years. Kelly has fielded some good football teams, you could make the argument if we had a quarterback in 2011 that was a BCS team no question.

 

That South Florida game still gives me nightmares.

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So I decided to look at TO Margin instead of just total TOs and here's what the numbers tell us.

 

+4 - 3-0

+3 - 3-0

+2 - 8-0

+1 - 10-1 (only loss coming at home to #4 Stanford in Kelly's first year)

+0 - 7-1 (only loss coming @ #11 Stanford last year)

- 1 - 6-3 (losses coming @Michigan last year, #2 Bama in MNC, @#7 Stanford in 2011)

- 2 - 2-5 (losses coming @#12 Michigan in 2011, FSU Bowl game, @#14 MSU in 2010, Navy in 2010, #24 Tulsa in 2010)

- 3 - 2-4 (losses coming #6 OK, @Pitt last year, #6 USC in 2011, Mich in 2010)

- 4 - 1-0 (Syracuse victory this year)

- 5 - 0-1 (S.Florida in 2011)

 

Overall

24-1 with a positive turnover margin

31-2 with even or better turnover margin

37-5 when -1 or better

5-10 when -2 or worse

 

When losing the turnover battle we are:

6-6 @ home

5-4 on the road

1-2 at neutral sites (Syracuse victory this year is counted as neutral site)

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So I decided to look at TO Margin instead of just total TOs and here's what the numbers tell us.

 

+4 - 3-0

+3 - 3-0

+2 - 8-0

+1 - 10-1 (only loss coming at home to #4 Stanford in Kelly's first year)

+0 - 7-1 (only loss coming @ #11 Stanford last year)

- 1 - 6-3 (losses coming @Michigan last year, #2 Bama in MNC, @#7 Stanford in 2011)

- 2 - 2-5 (losses coming @#12 Michigan in 2011, FSU Bowl game, @#14 MSU in 2010, Navy in 2010, #24 Tulsa in 2010)

- 3 - 2-4 (losses coming #6 OK, @Pitt last year, #6 USC in 2011, Mich in 2010)

- 4 - 1-0 (Syracuse victory this year)

- 5 - 0-1 (S.Florida in 2011)

 

Overall

24-1 with a positive turnover margin

31-2 with even or better turnover margin

37-5 when -1 or better

5-10 when -2 or worse

 

When losing the turnover battle we are:

6-6 @ home

5-4 on the road

1-2 at neutral sites (Syracuse victory this year is counted as neutral site)

 

Great work, thanks!

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So I decided to look at TO Margin instead of just total TOs and here's what the numbers tell us.

 

+4 - 3-0

+3 - 3-0

+2 - 8-0

+1 - 10-1 (only loss coming at home to #4 Stanford in Kelly's first year)

+0 - 7-1 (only loss coming @ #11 Stanford last year)

- 1 - 6-3 (losses coming @Michigan last year, #2 Bama in MNC, @#7 Stanford in 2011)

- 2 - 2-5 (losses coming @#12 Michigan in 2011, FSU Bowl game, @#14 MSU in 2010, Navy in 2010, #24 Tulsa in 2010)

- 3 - 2-4 (losses coming #6 OK, @Pitt last year, #6 USC in 2011, Mich in 2010)

- 4 - 1-0 (Syracuse victory this year)

- 5 - 0-1 (S.Florida in 2011)

 

Overall

24-1 with a positive turnover margin

31-2 with even or better turnover margin

37-5 when -1 or better

5-10 when -2 or worse

 

When losing the turnover battle we are:

6-6 @ home

5-4 on the road

1-2 at neutral sites (Syracuse victory this year is counted as neutral site)

 

Great stuff. Thank you.

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