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Are we sure Golson is the answer?


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The thought seems to be that with Golson next season, ND will start to steamroll teams and get to 11-1 or better. While they might, I think the defense is a more important factor than Golson for next season.

 

Consider, in the 28 games Tommy has started (except Miami, who I gave to EG), ND has averaged 27.8 PPG and given up 19.5.

 

In the 12 games EG has started (again, giving him credit for Miami last year), ND has averaged 26.5 PPG and given up 12.6, which includes the 42 to Alabama.

 

So Golson has a career record of 11-1, despite averaging more then a full point less than Rees, who has a record of 20-8.

 

So is Golson the big answer for next season, or getting a defense that resembles 2012 more than 2013?

 

Certainly Golson will show improvement from what he was two years ago, but is one player enough to overcome what shapes up to be a solid, but not spectacular defense? Also consider, that in his first 12 starts, Tommy averaged 31.5 ppg, a full 5 points more then Golson mustered in his first 12 starts.

 

The basic reasoning is, Kelly went 11-1 with his handpicked QB, of course ND will be great when Golson comes back. True, but he did it averaging less points then the maligned Rees. Does Golson make the defense that much better? Golson did turn it over a bit less, is that enough to make up the difference?

Edited by corysold
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We are 35th in scoring defense this season.

LSU is 34th

TAMU is 89th

 

We want to play better of course. And really about three or four missed tackles

(Michigan big TD, PITT long TD) have made things look worse.

 

We are a better D now than against Michigan.

Our best d of the year was Arizona st and USC.

Arizona st averages 41 PPG.

And we did a very nice job shutting down Taysom Hill.

 

The defense is not as bad as everyone thinks it is. But offense and defense is about consistent execution. And the consistency has not been there this year the way it was last year.

 

But I truly believe Golson allows us to do many more things offensively. And if teams go man down the field, Golson can run.

We can use bootlegs and keep defenders honest.

Not saying he wins heisman or anything because that is kind of silly.

But I'm hoping he makes a big difference.

 

This year was exciting because golson was returning. That didn't happen. We played with what we had. If next year doesn't produce again, then u can warm that seat up a tad.

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In 2010 ND had the 23rd scoring defense and went 8-5.

In 2011 ND had the 24th scoring defense and went 8-5.

In 2012 ND had the #2 scoring defense and went 12-1.

This year ND has the 35th scoring defense and is 8-3.

 

It seems pretty clear to me that defense is more important to ND's success then Golson/Rees.

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In 2010 ND had the 23rd scoring defense and went 8-5.

In 2011 ND had the 24th scoring defense and went 8-5.

In 2012 ND had the #2 scoring defense and went 12-1.

This year ND has the 35th scoring defense and is 8-3.

 

It seems pretty clear to me that defense is more important to ND's success then Golson/Rees.

 

You are right, EG wasn't some offensive juggernaut last season and the defense helped us very much.

defense this season is good enough to be 11-0 right now though.

Turnovers and missed chances hurt us this season, not some amazingly porous defense.

And really, those stats include two tommy pick sixes. And two short fields after turnovers that were TDs. Take those away and ND defense giving up 20 PPG.

(But that might be too convenient of a stat).

 

Even in 2011, our losses to south florida and Michigan and Florida and Florida can be easily attributed to turnovers and QB play.

 

I don't disagree with you, I just don't think it is a "clear" fact.

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turnovers by our offense attribute to other teams scoring, so if tommy turns the ball over more than golson, that leads to our opponents scoring more often.

 

golson will be good, he was a redshirt freshman with what looked like a ton of potential. we will see how next year goes without having tommy to bail him out when he starts to struggle, but i think he is going to be really good. I hope that this whitfield guy is as good as everyone says - the latest article i read said that golson is now throwing with the laces and whitfield has made big changes to his mechanics.

 

with that said, i think tommy played good this year. not great, but we definitely could have had worse.

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The thought seems to be that with Golson next season, ND will start to steamroll teams and get to 11-1 or better. While they might, I think the defense is a more important factor than Golson for next season.

 

Consider, in the 28 games Tommy has started (except Miami, who I gave to EG), ND has averaged 27.8 PPG and given up 19.5.

 

In the 12 games EG has started (again, giving him credit for Miami last year), ND has averaged 26.5 PPG and given up 12.6, which includes the 42 to Alabama.

 

So Golson has a career record of 11-1, despite averaging more then a full point less than Rees, who has a record of 20-8.

 

So is Golson the big answer for next season, or getting a defense that resembles 2012 more than 2013?

 

Certainly Golson will show improvement from what he was two years ago, but is one player enough to overcome what shapes up to be a solid, but not spectacular defense? Also consider, that in his first 12 starts, Tommy averaged 31.5 ppg, a full 5 points more then Golson mustered in his first 12 starts.

 

The basic reasoning is, Kelly went 11-1 with his handpicked QB, of course ND will be great when Golson comes back. True, but he did it averaging less points then the maligned Rees. Does Golson make the defense that much better? Golson did turn it over a bit less, is that enough to make up the difference?

 

I think the biggest difference is depth. For the last 4 years there has been relatively no depth at the position. When Kelly came in, it was Dayne and a bunch of true frosh. An injury to Dayne lead to us losing the Michigan game that year... The next season it was a physically limited Rees and Dayne coming off a second straight knee injury. The playbook needed to be shelved. Then in the magical 2012 year, remember that we were one snap from Rees. Which was evident in the BYU game why Kelly was gunshy with running Golson too much...(Remember at Cincy, Kelly knew he had something in Pike behind Mauk and Collaros behind Pike. Starting next year.)

 

Essentially we were always one snap from having to redo the game plan with a QB with a very different skill set. Next year, there are 3 QBs on the roster who essentially can be interchangeable from a play-call/game-plan perspective. I expect to see more bootlegs, more zone reads, more designed runs.

 

Rees still has an opportunity to leave his stamp on his four years. But I think Rees has been training wheels for this coaching staff. I think the training wheels come off next year and we see a more dynamic offense.

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2009 team scored 30.1 ppg......and went 6-6. Defense gave up 25.9 ppg.

 

So yeah, defense matters. A good offense is nice to have....but defense wins games.

 

Texas A&M is scoring 45.6 ppg.....and they are 8-3.

 

I think if we have Golson this year we are maybe 10-1 right now.....Okie turnovers and Pitt turnovers changes those games. Our defense has been serviceable considering the injuries. I am a bit concerned about DL depth next year...but it can't be as bad as this year inury wise...I hope.

Edited by MantyIrish
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2009 team scored 30.1 ppg......and went 6-6. Defense gave up 25.9 ppg.

 

So yeah, defense matters. A good offense is nice to have....but defense wins games.

 

Texas A&M is scoring 45.6 ppg.....and they are 8-3.

 

I think if we have Golson this year we are maybe 10-1 right now.....Okie turnovers and Pitt turnovers changes those games.

 

Well, without Manziel, A&M would lose a lot more games. They give up 33 PPG.

It shows you how one man can make quite a difference.

Could easily be 7-5. Gave up 38 in W vs ole miss, 41 in W vs Miss.

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2009 team scored 30.1 ppg......and went 6-6. Defense gave up 25.9 ppg.

 

So yeah, defense matters. A good offense is nice to have....but defense wins games.

 

Texas A&M is scoring 45.6 ppg.....and they are 8-3.

 

I think if we have Golson this year we are maybe 10-1 right now.....Okie turnovers and Pitt turnovers changes those games.

 

Maybe, but maybe not. Sure, maybe Golson scores enough points to win those games, but maybe not. Golson had some really bad turnovers last year as well, Stanford game comes to mind, but the defense bailed him out.

 

Piratey has a point that the offense should expand with Golson next season and perhaps his season of training will help. But don't forget, Tommy was coming into this year bigger and better and he ended up the same.

 

I just don't see a situation where Golson comes in, ND scores 40 ppg and all is well. 40 wouldn't have been enough vs Michigan. You still need a defense to stop someone and ND loses quite a bit from this defense to next year.

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Well, without Manziel, A&M would lose a lot more games. They give up 33 PPG.

It shows you how one man can make quite a difference.

Could easily be 7-5. Gave up 38 in W vs ole miss, 41 in W vs Miss.

 

True dat! I guess it's really about balance. A good offense and a great defense. No problem! lol.

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My point is, if we transpose last year's offense into this year's team (which I understand isn't a direct correlation and can't be 100% accurate), ND would have been 8-4 last season.

 

They would have lost 41-13 to Michigan.

24-20 to Purdue.

31-30 to Oklahoma.

28-20 to Pitt (going by regulation scores).

 

By the same token, give this year's team last year's defense and ND is 11-0 right now, beating Michigan 30-6, OU 17-13 and Pitt 21-20. Again, I realize it doesn't work exactly like this, but the point is made.

 

So unless Golson is going to come in and average 10+ more points per game (which I concede is possible), getting the defense back on track is the bigger issue in my mind.

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Golson will improve the scoring defense next year the following ways:

He'll turn the ball over less.

He'll improve third down conversion rate (with his legs).

Which will improve time of possession.

Which will keep the defense fresh.

Which will result in more 3 and outs.

Which will lower the # of opponents plays from scrimmage.

Which will increase the # of ND offensive plays from scrimmage.

Which will keep the defense fresh.

Which will improve tackle for loss and turnovers.

Which will swing field possession in ND's favor.

(Sorry got stuck in a loop)

All resulting in improved scoring defense because of a QB or one player. Meaning ND can score less and win more.

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He'll turn the ball over less.

 

ND has 14 turnovers this year. They had 15 last year.

 

He'll improve third down conversion rate (with his legs).

 

Should be true. ND is at 42% this year. 46% last year.

 

Which will improve time of possession.

 

Again, should be true. ND is at 28ish minutes this year, 31ish last year.

 

Which will keep the defense fresh.

 

True. ND had 830 plays on defense last year in 13 games. At 806 right now.

 

Which will result in more 3 and outs.

 

Can't find data for this.

 

Which will lower the # of opponents plays from scrimmage.

 

Already noted.

 

Which will increase the # of ND offensive plays from scrimmage.

 

66 this year vs 68 last year, no real difference.

 

Which will keep the defense fresh.

 

In theory. Can't measure endurance.

 

Which will improve tackle for loss and turnovers.

 

Maybe anecdotally. Did ND get more turnovers because they were less tired, or because Manti got 7 INT's? Take away Manti from last year and the difference isn't much.

 

Which will swing field possession in ND's favor.

 

Can't find data for this.

 

(Sorry got stuck in a loop)

 

All resulting in improved scoring defense because of a QB or one player. Meaning ND can score less and win more.

 

So some of your points statistically play out. But we'll have to replay the numbers next year and see how they look. Did the defensive numbers last year look better because of EG, or because of Manti?

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The thought seems to be that with Golson next season, ND will start to steamroll teams and get to 11-1 or better. While they might, I think the defense is a more important factor than Golson for next season.

 

Consider, in the 28 games Tommy has started (except Miami, who I gave to EG), ND has averaged 27.8 PPG and given up 19.5.

 

In the 12 games EG has started (again, giving him credit for Miami last year), ND has averaged 26.5 PPG and given up 12.6, which includes the 42 to Alabama.

 

So Golson has a career record of 11-1, despite averaging more then a full point less than Rees, who has a record of 20-8.

 

So is Golson the big answer for next season, or getting a defense that resembles 2012 more than 2013?

 

Certainly Golson will show improvement from what he was two years ago, but is one player enough to overcome what shapes up to be a solid, but not spectacular defense? Also consider, that in his first 12 starts, Tommy averaged 31.5 ppg, a full 5 points more then Golson mustered in his first 12 starts.

 

The basic reasoning is, Kelly went 11-1 with his handpicked QB, of course ND will be great when Golson comes back. True, but he did it averaging less points then the maligned Rees. Does Golson make the defense that much better? Golson did turn it over a bit less, is that enough to make up the difference?

 

I think most people are expecting an improved Golson. It wasn't how the offense looked last year, it was more of how we feel Golson will continue to improve.

 

I for one thought our offense was going to be better this year than last, because Golson was still developing and Tommy was a veteran. I do, however, feel that with Golson our offense would have been even better.

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Golson's return should be huge. Consider his effectiveness at the end of the season compared to the beginning. It was a huge difference.

 

We will be much better offensively

with him I think.

 

Was it really though? If we take Alabama out of the equation and look at the regular season.

 

1st 5 Golson starts - 28.8 points per game.

 

Last 5 Golson starts - 26.2 points per game.

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So some of your points statistically play out. But we'll have to replay the numbers next year and see how they look. Did the defensive numbers last year look better because of EG, or because of Manti?

 

Agreed, one could question the who. I believe the answer lies somewhere in-between. Made some assumptions and overstated slightly. Just wanted to point out that a QB can make a big difference in defensive stats.

 

We can add special teams to that, ND is giving up some serious field position on kick offs this year!

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ND has 14 turnovers this year. They had 15 last year.

 

 

 

Should be true. ND is at 42% this year. 46% last year.

 

 

 

Again, should be true. ND is at 28ish minutes this year, 31ish last year.

 

 

 

True. ND had 830 plays on defense last year in 13 games. At 806 right now.

 

 

 

Can't find data for this.

 

 

 

Already noted.

 

 

 

66 this year vs 68 last year, no real difference.

 

 

 

In theory. Can't measure endurance.

 

 

 

Maybe anecdotally. Did ND get more turnovers because they were less tired, or because Manti got 7 INT's? Take away Manti from last year and the difference isn't much.

 

 

 

Can't find data for this.

 

(Sorry got stuck in a loop)

 

 

 

So some of your points statistically play out. But we'll have to replay the numbers next year and see how they look. Did the defensive numbers last year look better because of EG, or because of Manti?

 

One other thing, Cory. The numbers you cite are EG's freshmen numbers compared to Tommy 's senior numbers.

 

You have to figure EG would have made improvements this year - or in his case now, next year.

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My point is, if we transpose last year's offense into this year's team (which I understand isn't a direct correlation and can't be 100% accurate), ND would have been 8-4 last season.

 

They would have lost 41-13 to Michigan.

24-20 to Purdue.

31-30 to Oklahoma.

28-20 to Pitt (going by regulation scores).

 

By the same token, give this year's team last year's defense and ND is 11-0 right now, beating Michigan 30-6, OU 17-13 and Pitt 21-20. Again, I realize it doesn't work exactly like this, but the point is made.

 

So unless Golson is going to come in and average 10+ more points per game (which I concede is possible), getting the defense back on track is the bigger issue in my mind.

 

Cory, as smart as you are, you know you can't just transpose numbers and use it as a strong argument.

We put in Rees every game last year and not Golson totally different season.

We put in Golson this year and everything changes.

We can't predict that or try to transpose the numbers in an effort to do so.

 

Overall point is this. We want our D to play better and Golson to spark the offense.

We want him to be able to keep drives alive with his legs at times.

But D also needs to play well, too. And shave off 5 or 6 PPG given up.

But what we should want more than anything is consistency.

We want to nail those five plays a game that break things open (DD open vs BYU and Rees under throw and should have been TD; jailbreak screen vs USC where TJ should have score a TD).

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One other thing, Cory. The numbers you cite are EG's freshmen numbers compared to Tommy 's senior numbers.

 

You have to figure EG would have made improvements this year - or in his case now, next year.

 

Of course you'd assume he would, and I'd guess he will, but you'd assume Hendrix and Rees would have gotten better in four years as well and that didn't happen.

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