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Old 09-16-2019, 08:13 PM
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Default #5 ND vs. #2 Florida State 2014

As expected, nobody - not even the vast majority of ND fans - think that ND has a shot to win on Saturday night in Athens. First of all, I agree that ND is probably not going to win. Just too many variables stacked against them - primetime road game in one of the most hostile environments in all of college football, a legitimately talented Top 5 team (with nothing but Top 3 recruiting classes the last three years), a sketchy run defense and an almost nonexistent run offense, and a bad habit of falling short in big games under BK.

However, I find it odd that nobody has talked about the 2014 game against Florida State, the defending National Champions with a Heisman Trophy winning QB. ND was a 12-point underdog going into that game, and they were coming off a horrible 50-43 win over North Carolina. Nobody gave ND a shot and most felt that they'd get blown out. FSU had tons of talent and tons of speed. Not only did ND not get blown out, but they were a questionable penalty away from winning.

Again, I'm not saying that ND is going to pull off the upset, I just find it odd that everyone and their mother is predicting a blowout loss. BK's teams have actually responded really well in their biggest regular season games, with Miami in 2017 an exception.

ND Regular Season Games Against Top 10 Teams Under BK

2010: None
2011: @ #4 Stanford (L 14-28 )
2012: @ #10 Michigan State (W 20-10); @ #8 Oklahoma (W 30-13)
2013: @ #8 Stanford (L 27-20)
2014: @ #2 Florida State (L 27-31)
2015: None (Clemson was #12)
2016: None
2017: @ #8 Miami (L 8-41) (USC was #11)
2018: #7 Stanford (W 38-17)

I don't expect ND to win on Saturday, but I do expect them to show up and play their best game of the season like they did in 2014 in Tallahassee. Hopefully it's good enough to keep it close in the 4th Quarter with a shot to pull off the upset.
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  #2  
Old 09-16-2019, 08:49 PM
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Great points. I too have been confused by the complete lack of hope around here, you'd think we've never played, let alone beaten, a good team before.

In my eyes, Georgia has everything to lose and us, everything to gain in this game.

That being said, Georgia 31 ND 17, but I hope I'm wrong and we play our asses off.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:41 PM
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Anyone who thinks ND has no shot hasn't been watching for the last 10 years. Anyone who think ND wins going away has green colored glasses.

Georgia is about 10 points better than ND by most rating systems I've seen. They are a 12 point favorite or so.

Georgia is an "elite" team according to the Massey composite, ND is "very good". In games between two such teams in recent year, the elite team is 27-9 at home. But 42% of those games were decided by 1 score and only 32% were by 3+ scores, so we should assume it'll be close.

So it's correct to think that ND has an uphill battle ahead of them. Playing a better team on the road is never a recipe for winning games.

But to think they have no chance is crazy.
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Last edited by corysold; 09-16-2019 at 09:43 PM.
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