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  #1  
Old 11-17-2019, 03:42 PM
Domer Dude Domer Dude is online now
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Default Turnover Margin and Penalties

Notre Dame is near the top in the country for turnover margin and top third in penalties

#7 Turnover
#31 Penalties (respectable)

http://www.cfbstats.com

For all you nincompoops this is what good consistent coaching brings. Love it.

1 Illinois 1.40
2 Ohio State. 1.30
2 Florida Atlantic 1.30
2 San Jose State 1.30
2 Alabama 1.30
2 Oregon 1.30
7 Notre Dame 1.10
7 San Diego State 1.10
9 Utah 1.00
10 Clemson 0.91

Last edited by Domer Dude; 11-17-2019 at 04:05 PM.
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  #2  
Old 11-17-2019, 05:16 PM
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Good thought, but I think turnovers are somewhat based on luck. How the ball bounces when you fumble, or when a ball gets tipped, etc. Sure, the coaching controls some of that, but...

2019 ND - 7th in TO margin
2018 - 41st
2017 - 46th
2016 - 93rd
2015 - 102nd
2014 - 84th
2013 - 61st
2012 - 29th
2011 - 118th
2010 - 50th

Same coach all of those years. Funnily enough, that averages out to 63rd, which would be exactly in the middle of the NCAA, or average. I'd assume most teams would have a similar pattern if you looked at it.
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Old 11-17-2019, 05:27 PM
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To look at it:

Alabama
2019 - 2nd
2018 - 34th
2017 - 5th
2016 - 17th
2015 - 21st
2014 - 73rd
2013 - 49th
2012 - 14th
2011 - 23rd
2010 - 14th

So above average almost every year. They also throw way less than most teams, but play with a lead so the opponent has to pass more, so that would help in turnover margin.

Ohio St.
2019 - 2nd
2018 - 32nd
2017 - 34th
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 48th
2014 - 33rd
2013 - 37th
2012 - 48th
2011 - 30th
2010 - 4th

Again, above average most years. That would seem to indicate consistent coaching.

Let's look at a team with bad coaching, but good talent mostly.

Michigan
2019 - 50th
2018 - 35th
2017 - 90th
2016 - 24th
2015 - 92nd
2014 - 124th
2013 - 33rd
2012 - 101st
2011 - 25th
2010 - 109th

3 different coaches over this time, average of 68th, about average. I'd assume the top programs do a little better over time, while most schools end up near the middle over 10+ years.
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Old 11-17-2019, 10:01 PM
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Thanks for making my point. The coaching wasn't consistent over that whole period.

The coaching has been consistent since the shake up, with Lea coming taking over the D and S&C making its transition, etc.. It takes years to ingrain the right culture and skills. Coaches teach athletes but athletes teach athletes just as much if not more. The coaching staff has been stable with fruits of those labors are starting to show.

Quote:
Originally Posted by corysold View Post
To look at it:

Alabama
2019 - 2nd
2018 - 34th
2017 - 5th
2016 - 17th
2015 - 21st
2014 - 73rd
2013 - 49th
2012 - 14th
2011 - 23rd
2010 - 14th

So above average almost every year. They also throw way less than most teams, but play with a lead so the opponent has to pass more, so that would help in turnover margin.

Ohio St.
2019 - 2nd
2018 - 32nd
2017 - 34th
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 48th
2014 - 33rd
2013 - 37th
2012 - 48th
2011 - 30th
2010 - 4th

Again, above average most years. That would seem to indicate consistent coaching.

Let's look at a team with bad coaching, but good talent mostly.

Michigan
2019 - 50th
2018 - 35th
2017 - 90th
2016 - 24th
2015 - 92nd
2014 - 124th
2013 - 33rd
2012 - 101st
2011 - 25th
2010 - 109th

3 different coaches over this time, average of 68th, about average. I'd assume the top programs do a little better over time, while most schools end up near the middle over 10+ years.
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Old 11-17-2019, 10:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Domer Dude View Post
Thanks for making my point. The coaching wasn't consistent over that whole period.

The coaching has been consistent since the shake up, with Lea coming taking over the D and S&C making its transition, etc.. It takes years to ingrain the right culture and skills. Coaches teach athletes but athletes teach athletes just as much if not more. The coaching staff has been stable with fruits of those labors are starting to show.
Fair point, I just still wonder how much is based on luck vs skill. The next few years will tell. For example, everyone raved about the coaching in 2012 and how great Diaco and Longo were then. ND was 98th in fumbles gained that year, with one of their greatest defenses ever. ND is second this year.

Are these coaches that much better or is ND just getting some good bounces. It's one thing to force a fumble, another for it to bounce right for you to recover it.

Hopefully you're right and the trend continues, I'm just not certain it will. If it was true that coaching could create turnovers, you'd see the same teams up top in fumbles gained every year. The fact that you don't suggests there is more to coaching involved and luck plays a part.
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Old 11-18-2019, 01:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corysold View Post
Fair point, I just still wonder how much is based on luck vs skill. The next few years will tell. For example, everyone raved about the coaching in 2012 and how great Diaco and Longo were then. ND was 98th in fumbles gained that year, with one of their greatest defenses ever. ND is second this year.

Are these coaches that much better or is ND just getting some good bounces. It's one thing to force a fumble, another for it to bounce right for you to recover it.

Hopefully you're right and the trend continues, I'm just not certain it will. If it was true that coaching could create turnovers, you'd see the same teams up top in fumbles gained every year. The fact that you don't suggests there is more to coaching involved and luck plays a part.
I'm going to come out and say players make plays. You can get all the coaching in the world but you need "playmakers" to cause those turnovers. Look at some of the greatest defenses over the years and you'll see "playmakers" all over. The Ravens with Ed Reed, Lewis, and that front four. The Bears with Singletary, Dent, and Duerson. I agree that coaching and luck helps, but it's about having the right players, the ball hawks, the disrupting linemen, the hard hitting linebackers that cause these turnovers.
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:32 AM
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I am pretty sure that Phil Steele believes that interceptions are mainly due to skill while fumbles recovered are more luck. Fumbles caused are probably more due to skill I am guessing

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 11-18-2019 at 02:50 AM.
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:59 AM
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http://cfbstats.com/2019/team/513/tu...gin/split.html

the -4 vs ranked teams hurts the most. Must be +15 against non-ranked teams. click above for splits
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  #9  
Old 11-20-2019, 01:09 AM
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Let's talk passing D - rated #5 ypg

1 Ohio State 126.0
2 Clemson 128.5
3 Wisconsin 154.3
4 Michigan 154.8
5 Notre Dame 162.5
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