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  #26  
Old 05-18-2019, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by ELDER06 View Post
Top 5 is a little high, but definitely top 10. Undoubtedly, the ultimate goal is to win a National Title. They won’t be contenders every yr like the truly elite, but there has to be one Yr where they have a legit shot. The Cotton Bowl showed us they have a long way to go to get to that level, but at least they’re moving in the right direction.
Not trying to be contentious, but figured I’d rank the tiers as so, taking into account the fact Ohio State could drop off with day and Lincoln Riley could be leaving Oklahoma; with recruiting and on field success - note that this isn’t my 2019 season rankings, just where the programs stand today:

Tier 1
1 - Clemson
2 - Alabama
3 - Ohio State

Tier 2
4 - Georgia
5 - Oklahoma
6 - Notre Dame

Tier 3 (not entirely in order)
Penn State
Texas
Washington
Auburn
LSU
Oregon
Michigan
Wisconsin
Texas A&M

Tier 4 - (really irrelevant just making argument sake here)
Florida
UCF
USC
Florida State
Michigan State
Stanford
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Washington State
West Virginia
Arizona State

What do you think? Is anyone in the third group really in danger of jumping us?

Does Ohio State still deserve to be up in the upper echelon?

Yes Washington beat us for Asa Turner, but they’re not beating us for Ohio kids.

Would you add to tier 3 - Florida?
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  #27  
Old 05-18-2019, 09:27 PM
golson5 golson5 is offline
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Id say

Tier 1: Clemson, Bama
Tier 2: Georgia, OSU, Oklahoma
Tier 3: ND, and all you mentioned.

Yes OSU still belongs. No evidence as of now they dont.
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  #28  
Old 05-18-2019, 11:52 PM
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Nice list. For most part agree. Wisconsin no. They beat essentially nobody every year, have a good record and get spanked against anyone who sneezes.

Edit: I'd move Stanford up to Tier 3. They have been off lately but they are always pushing the top teams.


Quote:
Originally Posted by KamaraPolice View Post
Not trying to be contentious, but figured I’d rank the tiers as so, taking into account the fact Ohio State could drop off with day and Lincoln Riley could be leaving Oklahoma; with recruiting and on field success - note that this isn’t my 2019 season rankings, just where the programs stand today:

Tier 1
1 - Clemson
2 - Alabama
3 - Ohio State

Tier 2
4 - Georgia
5 - Oklahoma
6 - Notre Dame

Tier 3 (not entirely in order)
Penn State
Texas
Washington
Auburn
LSU
Oregon
Michigan
Wisconsin
Texas A&M

Tier 4 - (really irrelevant just making argument sake here)
Florida
UCF
USC
Florida State
Michigan State
Stanford
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Washington State
West Virginia
Arizona State

What do you think? Is anyone in the third group really in danger of jumping us?

Does Ohio State still deserve to be up in the upper echelon?

Yes Washington beat us for Asa Turner, but they’re not beating us for Ohio kids.

Would you add to tier 3 - Florida?

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  #29  
Old 05-19-2019, 10:42 AM
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Until ND beats teams like Alabama, Clemson and OSU I can't get excided.
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  #30  
Old 05-19-2019, 04:42 PM
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Until ND beats teams like Alabama, Clemson and OSU I can't get excided.

thats certainly the next step, we were close to UGA two years ago, beat Oklahoma in 2012, but until ND makes the big step of winning a playoff type game vs a playoff type team we probably will have a lot of people close to happy with the Kelly Era and not quite happy all at the same time.

This state of affairs really a different place to be, I personally think by looking at Kelly's past records that he by virtue of having this long to figure out a complex program is about to take ND back to where it belongs.
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  #31  
Old 05-19-2019, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by FaithInIrishForever View Post
thats certainly the next step, we were close to UGA two years ago, beat Oklahoma in 2012, but until ND makes the big step of winning a playoff type game vs a playoff type team we probably will have a lot of people close to happy with the Kelly Era and not quite happy all at the same time.

This state of affairs really a different place to be, I personally think by looking at Kelly's past records that he by virtue of having this long to figure out a complex program is about to take ND back to where it belongs.
Honest question Faith. Would you call Brian Kelly a success at ND if he leaves ND this year without winning a championship? Is “just getting ND” back a success in your eyes? It’s not a loaded question where I’m going to fire back at you. I’m just curious of your thoughts giving his time frame of 9 years at this point.
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  #32  
Old 05-20-2019, 01:28 AM
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Honest question Faith. Would you call Brian Kelly a success at ND if he leaves ND this year without winning a championship? Is “just getting ND” back a success in your eyes? It’s not a loaded question where I’m going to fire back at you. I’m just curious of your thoughts giving his time frame of 9 years at this point.
complete success is only achieved by winning a championship. Would I mark him a complete failure if he does not? No. He will always get credit from me for fixing a program that I LOVE but felt was a complete mess before Kelly took over.

Complete Success heck no. Better then we were Heck yes. But if somehow Kelly wins one, then he get his due with like Dan DeVine. Probably still not Lou Holtz but DeVine won one and is remembered but not quite as revered as Holtz.
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  #33  
Old 05-20-2019, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by FaithInIrishForever View Post
thats certainly the next step, we were close to UGA two years ago, beat Oklahoma in 2012, but until ND makes the big step of winning a playoff type game vs a playoff type team we probably will have a lot of people close to happy with the Kelly Era and not quite happy all at the same time.

This state of affairs really a different place to be, I personally think by looking at Kelly's past records that he by virtue of having this long to figure out a complex program is about to take ND back to where it belongs.
Why bring up the 2012 Oklahoma game? That was 7 years ago. The Georgia game was 2 years ago...

Lots has changed since then. The bottom line is that Kelly gets his butt kicked in games where ND is in the spotlight. Yes the Irish have improved BUT until they consistently beat the "elite" teams they will never get any respect.
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  #34  
Old 05-21-2019, 01:22 AM
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Why bring up the 2012 Oklahoma game? That was 7 years ago. The Georgia game was 2 years ago...

Lots has changed since then. The bottom line is that Kelly gets his butt kicked in games where ND is in the spotlight. Yes the Irish have improved BUT until they consistently beat the "elite" teams they will never get any respect.
I brought Oklahoma up simply because it happened. Elite teams will be the result of elite recruits, coaches don't make plays players do, and the best players will make the best plays, look at the WR currently on the recruiting board named Johnson, players like that make the difference, and possibly Chris Tyree.
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  #35  
Old 05-21-2019, 02:53 AM
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I don't think many of us really expect to win against Georgia at Athens.....that's unfortunate…..to be fair I wasn't all that confident we could beat Michigan last year but we did.

Until our own fan base , forget about pundits and Vegas types , EXPECT to win those games its reasonable to think we STILL have a long way to go. Yes I feel good again and REALLY think we have a nice shot at ten wins even if this team is NOT as good as last years,

But that is as far as we have gone,,,, we are relevant , we can sometimes win tough games, we can play with most of the top 15 teams....we can win double digit games.

Going the rest of the way,,,,to a point where we mostly expect to win against strong teams....to where we ACTUALLY believe WE are the better team...
getting to that point unfortunately would require the same type team as last year but PEPPERED with 6 or 8 real superstars not just one or maybe 2....

That likely would take an extra 2, 5 star recruits every cycle....that just may not be possible.

aloha
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  #36  
Old 05-21-2019, 02:32 PM
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I don't think many of us really expect to win against Georgia at Athens.....that's unfortunate…..to be fair I wasn't all that confident we could beat Michigan last year but we did.

Until our own fan base , forget about pundits and Vegas types , EXPECT to win those games its reasonable to think we STILL have a long way to go. Yes I feel good again and REALLY think we have a nice shot at ten wins even if this team is NOT as good as last years,

But that is as far as we have gone,,,, we are relevant , we can sometimes win tough games, we can play with most of the top 15 teams....we can win double digit games.

Going the rest of the way,,,,to a point where we mostly expect to win against strong teams....to where we ACTUALLY believe WE are the better team...
getting to that point unfortunately would require the same type team as last year but PEPPERED with 6 or 8 real superstars not just one or maybe 2....

That likely would take an extra 2, 5 star recruits every cycle....that just may not be possible.

aloha
Fair points, I just think it is unrealistic to ever really "expect" to go on the road vs. top 5 type teams and win. Even in the golden era of Holtz, ND was 4-3 vs top 10 teams on the road. So even as a perennially top 3 type team, they were still more or less .500 in those type of games.

If you assume Georgia is a top 3 type team, how much better would ND have to be to "expect" to win on the road vs. them?

Think of how good Alabama has been since 2012 and they are 2-2 on the road vs. top 5 teams over that span. That means even Alabama can't "expect" to win on the road vs a top 5 team. ND is never going to be Alabama, so to be able to ever expect to beat teams like Georgia on the road just isn't realistic.
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Old 05-21-2019, 04:09 PM
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Fair points, I just think it is unrealistic to ever really "expect" to go on the road vs. top 5 type teams and win. Even in the golden era of Holtz, ND was 4-3 vs top 10 teams on the road. So even as a perennially top 3 type team, they were still more or less .500 in those type of games.

If you assume Georgia is a top 3 type team, how much better would ND have to be to "expect" to win on the road vs. them?

Think of how good Alabama has been since 2012 and they are 2-2 on the road vs. top 5 teams over that span. That means even Alabama can't "expect" to win on the road vs a top 5 team. ND is never going to be Alabama, so to be able to ever expect to beat teams like Georgia on the road just isn't realistic.

Are we .500 on the road vs top 5 teams during Kelly’s era? Just curious
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  #38  
Old 05-21-2019, 04:34 PM
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Are we .500 on the road vs top 5 teams during Kelly’s era? Just curious
ND is 0-2 on the road against Top 5 teams since 2010.

#4 Stanford in 2011 (L 14-28 )
#2 Florida State in 2014 (L 27-31)

ND is 2-4 on the road against Top 10 teams since 2010.


#4 Stanford in 2011 (L 14-28 )
#10 Michigan State in 2012 (W 20-3)
#8 Oklahoma in 2012 (W 30-13)
#8 Stanford in 2013 (L 20-27)
#2 Florida State in 2014 (L 27-31)
#7 Miami in 2017 (L 8-41)
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  #39  
Old 05-21-2019, 07:37 PM
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I'm genuinely curious how far ND has actually come in the last 15 years. ND went to back to back BCS games going 9-3 and 10-3 getting beaten badly in both. In ND's 3 BCS level games under Kelly ND has gotten beaten similarly bad. Kelly is obviously a better coach and program runner than Weis, but ND recruited better on the top end, but worse overall under Weis and got beaten by the good/great teams they played, something that this thread is now talking about.
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  #40  
Old 05-21-2019, 07:54 PM
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ND is 0-2 on the road against Top 5 teams since 2010.

#4 Stanford in 2011 (L 14-28 )
#2 Florida State in 2014 (L 27-31)

ND is 2-4 on the road against Top 10 teams since 2010.


#4 Stanford in 2011 (L 14-28 )
#10 Michigan State in 2012 (W 20-3)
#8 Oklahoma in 2012 (W 30-13)
#8 Stanford in 2013 (L 20-27)
#2 Florida State in 2014 (L 27-31)
#7 Miami in 2017 (L 8-41)
This tells me that ND needs to be at least .500 to be considered back then. Georgia would be a good start
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  #41  
Old 05-21-2019, 08:21 PM
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I'm genuinely curious how far ND has actually come in the last 15 years. ND went to back to back BCS games going 9-3 and 10-3 getting beaten badly in both. In ND's 3 BCS level games under Kelly ND has gotten beaten similarly bad. Kelly is obviously a better coach and program runner than Weis, but ND recruited better on the top end, but worse overall under Weis and got beaten by the good/great teams they played, something that this thread is now talking about.
When you put it that way.....
I do think ND is in a different place than the previous successors even if the wins haven’t been there yet. However, I for one, don’t like to be the person that says” next years the year.” I did that a lot of years with the Cubs.
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  #42  
Old 05-21-2019, 08:40 PM
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This tells me that ND needs to be at least .500 to be considered back then. Georgia would be a good start
Agreed. The Miami game killed ND. They were being given the benefit of the doubt and solidly in the CFP Top 4 as a one-loss team (and not too many people seemed to have a problem with it), but then they got smoked and lost all credibility. The Clemson loss hurt for sure, but after what they did to Bama, I don't think it's quite as bad as that Miami debacle. They just haven't had many opportunities for big road wins the last 4-5 years.

ND will have two, maybe three opportunities for some big road wins in 2019. Georgia will almost certainly be in the Top 3 when ND goes to Athens. Michigan will probably be in the Top 10, although they have to play at Wisconsin and at Penn State before then. Stanford has an outside shot just because the Pac-12 is horrible. I don't think Stanford will be that good - they have gotten worse each of the last three seasons and their roster is a mess - but who knows in that conference.

It's a tall task, but ND has to at least be competitive against UGA. They are already 10.5 point dogs - could be up to 12-14 point dogs by game time. If they can somehow pull off a win, that would immediately change the perception around ND. A Top 3 win on the road would put them in a really good spot to go back to the CFP, even if they lost a game later in the season (obviously the timing and the opponent would matter).
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  #43  
Old 05-22-2019, 01:14 AM
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Agreed. The Miami game killed ND. They were being given the benefit of the doubt and solidly in the CFP Top 4 as a one-loss team (and not too many people seemed to have a problem with it), but then they got smoked and lost all credibility. The Clemson loss hurt for sure, but after what they did to Bama, I don't think it's quite as bad as that Miami debacle. They just haven't had many opportunities for big road wins the last 4-5 years.

ND will have two, maybe three opportunities for some big road wins in 2019. Georgia will almost certainly be in the Top 3 when ND goes to Athens. Michigan will probably be in the Top 10, although they have to play at Wisconsin and at Penn State before then. Stanford has an outside shot just because the Pac-12 is horrible. I don't think Stanford will be that good - they have gotten worse each of the last three seasons and their roster is a mess - but who knows in that conference.

It's a tall task, but ND has to at least be competitive against UGA. They are already 10.5 point dogs - could be up to 12-14 point dogs by game time. If they can somehow pull off a win, that would immediately change the perception around ND. A Top 3 win on the road would put them in a really good spot to go back to the CFP, even if they lost a game later in the season (obviously the timing and the opponent would matter).

No question. I mean, ND beats Georgia in Athens and ND is solid at #3 as long as they don’t stink it up somewhere else. That win alone knocks a second SEC team out(if Florida sucks) from leaping ND IF those are the last two teams competing at the end of the year. I would almost consider this a must have game for the simple fact that it would make life easy for ND throughout the year. Just like ND did to Michigan last year. Tough to drop a team that has a top 10 win early on in the year.
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  #44  
Old 05-22-2019, 02:11 AM
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11-1 and expecting to win last year....ND is in a different place.

ND's S&C is as good as any in the country. Our Defensive Coach is wanted around the country and will be the next ND Head Coach. Lineman want to come here. Tommy is actually a pretty damn good QB coach. Lyght is awesome and picking top recruits. We have new digs as good as any. 15 years ago if you wanted the whole package, ND wasn't the place. Now I would send my kid here without a doubt including kids looking to get to the next level.

While things will vary year to year, I expect ND to be top 10 contender every year and when leprachauns line up be in the CFP.

Go Irish

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  #45  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:15 PM
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Id say

Tier 1: Clemson, Bama
Tier 2: Georgia, OSU, Oklahoma
Tier 3: ND, and all you mentioned.

Yes OSU still belongs. No evidence as of now they dont.
I would agree with this, osu has had some really strong seasons lately but havent been in the playoffs the last few years and the last time they were they were curbstomped by Clemson so they dont belong in that tier 1 category. Nd has gotten up to 6 based on their last 2 seasons being 22-4. There is a question if they ever will or can get to a tier 2 or 1 but it is an unbelievable climb to get to where they are considering where they had been the 20 years prior
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Old 05-23-2019, 01:24 PM
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I'm genuinely curious how far ND has actually come in the last 15 years. ND went to back to back BCS games going 9-3 and 10-3 getting beaten badly in both. In ND's 3 BCS level games under Kelly ND has gotten beaten similarly bad. Kelly is obviously a better coach and program runner than Weis, but ND recruited better on the top end, but worse overall under Weis and got beaten by the good/great teams they played, something that this thread is now talking about.
The program as a whole is in a much better spot for sure but I agree on a national stage level not much has changed. Kelly has had some really good close losses (Clemson and fsu) similar to Weis in 05 against USC. And hes hac some horrendous blowouts in big time bowl games.

It's clear though that if you step back and look at it from a top to bottom level this program is night and day better then it was in the weis years. I think it was a work in progress for the first 6 or 7 years under kelly and maybe it took him longer then it should have but post 16 kelly and the program in general have risen to another level. The recruiting has improved particularly at key areas like d line and the quality of assistant coaches has improved as well. Nd has won 10+ 3 of the last 4 years and back to back the last 2 for the first time since 92/93.

I agree that they need to win a big time game on a national stage that's the next step and then maybe they can think about competing with the biggest of boys but that shouldn't take away from the progress that has been made.
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  #47  
Old 05-23-2019, 04:14 PM
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I would agree with this, osu has had some really strong seasons lately but havent been in the playoffs the last few years and the last time they were they were curbstomped by Clemson so they dont belong in that tier 1 category. Nd has gotten up to 6 based on their last 2 seasons being 22-4. There is a question if they ever will or can get to a tier 2 or 1 but it is an unbelievable climb to get to where they are considering where they had been the 20 years prior
I’ve always look at tiers on “what if’s.” What if ND played ND Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and tOSU? We know about Clemson and Bama obviously. We have a chance to see against Georgia on the road. As for tOSU, we have been humiliated by them the last three times. Including a Lou Holtz coaches team. I would rank them ahead of us also.

Tier 1
Clemson
Bama
tOSU
Tier 2
ND
Georgia
Michigan
Oklahoma
Tier 3
LSU
Texas
Florida
MIchigan St
Whoever else

ND has proven or have shown they can play with Tier 2 and below. Not so much when it comes to Tier 1.
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Old 05-24-2019, 01:09 PM
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I’ve always look at tiers on “what if’s.” What if ND played ND Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and tOSU? We know about Clemson and Bama obviously. We have a chance to see against Georgia on the road. As for tOSU, we have been humiliated by them the last three times. Including a Lou Holtz coaches team. I would rank them ahead of us also.

Tier 1
Clemson
Bama
tOSU
Tier 2
ND
Georgia
Michigan
Oklahoma
Tier 3
LSU
Texas
Florida
MIchigan St
Whoever else

ND has proven or have shown they can play with Tier 2 and below. Not so much when it comes to Tier 1.
Good point. But I think ND is much closer to tier 1 than they've been. I think they are a player or three away at this point vs. 10-12 like they were in the Weis era.

In the Clemson game, I don't feel like ND was dramatically outplayed. Their QB made the plays when they were there to be made and ND's didn't. Swap 1 player and I think it is a very different game. Does ND win with Lawrence at QB if Clemson has Book? I don't know, but it would have been a much different game and the narrative after would be different.
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