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  #1  
Old 03-22-2020, 02:37 AM
Kelly Gruene Kelly Gruene is online now
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Default The Virus

I’m truly conflicted.
I have a 95 year-old mother in assisted living.
I have three sons in their early 20’s.
The average age of those who have died in Italy from the virus is 79.5.
Let that sink in for a moment. 79.5.

It seems to me that we are sacrificing the economy of the entire planet to save the lives of people who are in their late 70’s and 80’s. If life expectancy in the US is to live to age 88, does this really make sense?
Young people who have potentially 40+ productive years ahead, versus old people who might have about 8 non-productive years ahead.
Young people coming out of college with $300,000 debt and no job prospects for the next two years, all to save resources to keep 80 year-olds on ventilators hoping to keep them alive for another 8 years in which they will not contribute to the economy.

I’m sure this is a radical thought, but I’m just not sure it’s worth it. There will almost certainly be massive social unrest, no jobs, small businesses cratering, and what do we get?
I love my 95 year-old mother. But I just personally am not convinced it is worth sacrificing the planet’s economy and social well-being to keep her alive for another year or two.

Ban me from the Board if you must, but this is the issue of the day.

Thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 03-22-2020, 03:43 AM
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For me, the problem is just not knowing, so Iím playing it safe. I have high blood pressure so I donít want to show up on the death roster with three young ones at home and one due in June. My parents are in their 60s and have their own issues, so we donít see them even thoufh weíre fifteen minutes away. Fortunately, my wife works in the ER and I do my job from hone which is flexible so I can teach the kids, too, while school is out. So, we have steady incomes, though not-so-steady toilet paper.

I look at it like this... You canít look at Italy...theyíre old and a bunch of smokers. Theyíre all gonna die... (exaggerating). We will have drugs soon enough to lower the death toll...eventually weíll have a vaccine too. We just need to give the medical community some time to get those resources in place. Once they have them and we can medicate people, I think we can move on with our lives and let everyone get infected. Weíre giving them a breath, basically. So, in the meantime, Iím buying stocks and loading up my 401k while the market is down, because it will no doubt recover.

Anyway, just my thoughts/strategies.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Kelly Gruene View Post
Iím truly conflicted.
I have a 95 year-old mother in assisted living.
I have three sons in their early 20ís.
The average age of those who have died in Italy from the virus is 79.5.
Let that sink in for a moment. 79.5.

It seems to me that we are sacrificing the economy of the entire planet to save the lives of people who are in their late 70ís and 80ís. If life expectancy in the US is to live to age 88, does this really make sense?
Young people who have potentially 40+ productive years ahead, versus old people who might have about 8 non-productive years ahead.
Young people coming out of college with $300,000 debt and no job prospects for the next two years, all to save resources to keep 80 year-olds on ventilators hoping to keep them alive for another 8 years in which they will not contribute to the economy.

Iím sure this is a radical thought, but Iím just not sure itís worth it. There will almost certainly be massive social unrest, no jobs, small businesses cratering, and what do we get?
I love my 95 year-old mother. But I just personally am not convinced it is worth sacrificing the planetís economy and social well-being to keep her alive for another year or two.

Ban me from the Board if you must, but this is the issue of the day.

Thoughts?
Because it's about not overwhelming the medical system. As more people test positive the mortality rate will go down. But unfortunately it's just not "old people" that need care. Plenty of people who are in their 50's 60's and even 40's will need ICU care which includes ventilators and with this care they will survive. But the world still turns...people will continue to experience their normal everyday medical issues and emergencies. Heart Attacks, Strokes, Cancer Treatment, Kidney Dialysis, vehicle accidents, stabbings, shootings, general assaults, slip and falls just to name a few. Where are all these people going to go? The hospital of course and we expect to be cared for, I'm sure a ton of us have been to the ER before for minor things for a cut hand or finger requiring stitches, nothing like a few hours wait in the ER on a normal day. But what happens when the 45 year old guy who takes a sudden heart attack can't get treatment because the hospital is full? What happens when a young child is hit by a car riding his bike? The Doctor is too busy to pay his usual attention to you? The Hospital is on diversion but there are no other hospitals with empty beds? The Ambulance and or Medics who would respond to your emergency is now not coming for an hour to get you? We don't want to get in a position where we have to put Doctor's, Nurses and First Responders having to choose who lives and who dies.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:58 AM
Kelly Gruene Kelly Gruene is online now
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Because it's about not overwhelming the medical system. As more people test positive the mortality rate will go down. But unfortunately it's just not "old people" that need care. Plenty of people who are in their 50's 60's and even 40's will need ICU care which includes ventilators and with this care they will survive. But the world still turns...people will continue to experience their normal everyday medical issues and emergencies. Heart Attacks, Strokes, Cancer Treatment, Kidney Dialysis, vehicle accidents, stabbings, shootings, general assaults, slip and falls just to name a few. Where are all these people going to go? The hospital of course and we expect to be cared for, I'm sure a ton of us have been to the ER before for minor things for a cut hand or finger requiring stitches, nothing like a few hours wait in the ER on a normal day. But what happens when the 45 year old guy who takes a sudden heart attack can't get treatment because the hospital is full? What happens when a young child is hit by a car riding his bike? The Doctor is too busy to pay his usual attention to you? The Hospital is on diversion but there are no other hospitals with empty beds? The Ambulance and or Medics who would respond to your emergency is now not coming for an hour to get you? We don't want to get in a position where we have to put Doctor's, Nurses and First Responders having to choose who lives and who dies.
But this is actually part of my point.
If the US were to stop placing patients over the age of 80 on ventilators and in ICU’s it would free-up much needed resources for those in their 40’s and 50’s who are more likely to recover and lead socially productive lives.
The resources are precious. GM says they’ll be ready to start making ventilators in possibly 6 weeks. That’s nice, but 6 weeks from now this thing could be raging here.
Free up resources for people under the age of, say, 80. Keep those 80 and over who get the virus as comfortable as possible, isolate them, but don’t put them in intensive care. This makes those resources available for other every-day medical needs.
I realize that can’t happen here. Lawsuits and judges wouldn’t allow it. I think it makes a lot of sense though.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:48 PM
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To me itís simple as this. Get more test kits out and fast. We are so damn slow to do ďanything.Ē Also, shut down ALL elective cases for the time being and have those places send all PPE equipment to all areas that need it ASAP. I work for a small clinic and we still do elective cases. The hospitals that our docs go to just about ran out of face masks just to finish their last few cases for the day. We could of given our equipment to them. But our docs are money hungry and want to keep doing sx. Anyways, people really need to calm down, wash there hands, social distance and allow for reinforcements to arrive. The problem is this administration could had put a strangle hold on this virus if they put us on lockdown right away for 2 weeks and allow for backup to arrive. But they are doing what our docs are doing and playing the waiting game for the ďwait and seeĒ approach instead of being proactive alright away. The states are finally making the right call but it wonít matter when 5 states are doing the right thing and 45 states are sitting in there hands. This will just keep the virus moving along. Anyways, get the kits available so that it calms fears and helps people understand who needs to stay away and who needs to work etc...
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by irishwavend View Post
For me, the problem is just not knowing, so Iím playing it safe. I have high blood pressure so I donít want to show up on the death roster with three young ones at home and one due in June. My parents are in their 60s and have their own issues, so we donít see them even thoufh weíre fifteen minutes away. Fortunately, my wife works in the ER and I do my job from hone which is flexible so I can teach the kids, too, while school is out. So, we have steady incomes, though not-so-steady toilet paper.

I look at it like this... You canít look at Italy...theyíre old and a bunch of smokers. Theyíre all gonna die... (exaggerating). We will have drugs soon enough to lower the death toll...eventually weíll have a vaccine too. We just need to give the medical community some time to get those resources in place. Once they have them and we can medicate people, I think we can move on with our lives and let everyone get infected. Weíre giving them a breath, basically. So, in the meantime, Iím buying stocks and loading up my 401k while the market is down, because it will no doubt recover.

Anyway, just my thoughts/strategies.
I agree. The media trying to create panic and hysteria through this comparison of Italy is disgusting. We should take this seriously, but the implication implication that weíre equally susceptible to this as Italy is a lie
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:25 PM
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To me itís simple as this. Get more test kits out and fast. We are so damn slow to do ďanything.Ē Also, shut down ALL elective cases for the time being and have those places send all PPE equipment to all areas that need it ASAP. I work for a small clinic and we still do elective cases. The hospitals that our docs go to just about ran out of face masks just to finish their last few cases for the day. We could of given our equipment to them. But our docs are money hungry and want to keep doing sx. Anyways, people really need to calm down, wash there hands, social distance and allow for reinforcements to arrive. The problem is this administration could had put a strangle hold on this virus if they put us on lockdown right away for 2 weeks and allow for backup to arrive. But they are doing what our docs are doing and playing the waiting game for the ďwait and seeĒ approach instead of being proactive alright away. The states are finally making the right call but it wonít matter when 5 states are doing the right thing and 45 states are sitting in there hands. This will just keep the virus moving along. Anyways, get the kits available so that it calms fears and helps people understand who needs to stay away and who needs to work etc...
You have to understand as a culture, weíre more likely to resist govt takeovers of our lives, so itís a last resort.
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:42 PM
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You have to understand as a culture, weíre more likely to resist govt takeovers of our lives, so itís a last resort.
Oh I do, but the govt is here to protect. And these people that resist will be crying when the **** really hits the fan and they are the ones needing help. Canít have it both ways...
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Old 03-23-2020, 05:31 AM
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This virus basically only kills the elderly and the individuals with already weak immune systems... just like every other virus. If you are below 50 in decent health, the mortality rate is extremely low. Once a vaccine is somewhat effective, it will be another flu of the year.
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Old 03-23-2020, 09:54 AM
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This virus basically only kills the elderly and the individuals with already weak immune systems... just like every other virus. If you are below 50 in decent health, the mortality rate is extremely low. Once a vaccine is somewhat effective, it will be another flu of the year.
The Seattle experience, at least from five days ago, was that 20% of the admissions for the illness was from the 20-44 year-old age range group, and 12.5% of ICU admissions was from this group. But almost no deaths in that group.
The Italian experience has been that 78% of those who died had hypertension and 38% had diabetes.
There seems to be a predilection for blood type A but that’s less clear.
I hold out hope that a combination of drugs like hydroxychloroquin and azithromycin is found to be effective in either preventing the disease or making its effects much less drastic. The drugs are rapidly made readily available, everyone takes them, and we get back to work. A vaccine becomes available in a year and we now add that to our annual vaccination regimen. And no one gets to opt out of that vaccination.
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Old 03-23-2020, 01:58 PM
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CDC and WHO are warning that hospitalization of younger people is on the rise. CDC shows that nearly 40% of those sick enough to be hospitalized in the US are age 20-54. Also, more than half of all patients put in the ICU are under age 65.

The head of WHO says ďI have a message for young people: You are not invincible, this virus could put you in hospital for weeks or even kill you. Even if you don't get sick the choices you make about where you go could be the difference between life and death for someone else."
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Old 03-23-2020, 02:40 PM
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The Seattle experience, at least from five days ago, was that 20% of the admissions for the illness was from the 20-44 year-old age range group, and 12.5% of ICU admissions was from this group. But almost no deaths in that group.
The Italian experience has been that 78% of those who died had hypertension and 38% had diabetes.
There seems to be a predilection for blood type A but thatís less clear.
I hold out hope that a combination of drugs like hydroxychloroquin and azithromycin is found to be effective in either preventing the disease or making its effects much less drastic. The drugs are rapidly made readily available, everyone takes them, and we get back to work. A vaccine becomes available in a year and we now add that to our annual vaccination regimen. And no one gets to opt out of that vaccination.
I wouldn't push mandatory vaccine talk just yet...
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Old 03-28-2020, 03:58 AM
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I agree. The media trying to create panic and hysteria through this comparison of Italy is disgusting. We should take this seriously, but the implication implication that weíre equally susceptible to this as Italy is a lie
This didnít age so well...
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Old 03-28-2020, 03:19 PM
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This didnít age so well...
% wise, it's still not close, you do realize our population dwarfs Italy right?
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Old 03-28-2020, 03:58 PM
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% wise, it's still not close, you do realize our population dwarfs Italy right?
Letís see how this ages in three weeks.
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Old 03-28-2020, 06:52 PM
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Letís see how this ages in three weeks.
good non-answer
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Kelly Gruene View Post
Iím truly conflicted.
I have a 95 year-old mother in assisted living.
I have three sons in their early 20ís.
The average age of those who have died in Italy from the virus is 79.5.
Let that sink in for a moment. 79.5.

It seems to me that we are sacrificing the economy of the entire planet to save the lives of people who are in their late 70ís and 80ís. If life expectancy in the US is to live to age 88, does this really make sense?
Young people who have potentially 40+ productive years ahead, versus old people who might have about 8 non-productive years ahead.
Young people coming out of college with $300,000 debt and no job prospects for the next two years, all to save resources to keep 80 year-olds on ventilators hoping to keep them alive for another 8 years in which they will not contribute to the economy.

Iím sure this is a radical thought, but Iím just not sure itís worth it. There will almost certainly be massive social unrest, no jobs, small businesses cratering, and what do we get?
I love my 95 year-old mother. But I just personally am not convinced it is worth sacrificing the planetís economy and social well-being to keep her alive for another year or two.

Ban me from the Board if you must, but this is the issue of the day.

Thoughts?
Doesnt sound very pro-life when elderly's lives are less important than the economy
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:55 AM
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good non-answer
Assumed you would know I am aware of the population differences. Perhaps I assumed too much...

Again, letís look at percentages in three weeks...
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:53 AM
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I live in Philadelphia...inner city Philly...things are picking up very quickly here and people are getting scared. Schools have been closed for 2 weeks and there are lots of people laid off. My wife and I are both school teachers so we are good with both paychecks still and we can be home with our kids.

Being so close to NYC and northern NJ is worrisome. One Friday, Cuomo said NY is still 3 weeks away from hitting its “apex” for this virus...which if is true, my God, NY will be ravaged!!! So the worry is when and how does it hit Philly full force.

My parents and in-laws are in their 70s and 80s...my kids are 5, 13, and 14 year old. I’ve gone from thinking this was over blown to being scared about what the hell is going on?!?!? At some point I’m assuming we will know someone who gets this virus...currently according to the Philly tracker there are 8 confirmed cases in my zip code, which is a small condensed neighborhood.

I have no idea what my point was going to be but I just threw all that out there.

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Old 03-29-2020, 02:55 AM
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Exactly. We are three to four weeks away from the sh!t. People assume itís bad now. Itís not...
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:55 PM
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You just have to be patient, wait it out in your home, and let social distancing take effect. A couple weeks and we should be on the backside of this...just donít become complacent once the peak passes...
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Old 03-30-2020, 02:09 AM
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You just have to be patient, wait it out in your home, and let social distancing take effect. A couple weeks and we should be on the backside of this...just donít become complacent once the peak passes...
People on the front line think the exact opposite. This is the calm before the storm. We are going to see the magnitude of this IN two weeks.
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Old 03-30-2020, 03:20 AM
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Doesnt sound very pro-life when elderly's lives are less important than the economy
That’s the debate.
I don’t assume that all of the posters on DD share the same pro-life view.
States are now being forced to triage which patients will get ventilators and which will not. That is, patients who are admitted and need ventilators won’t get ventilators if there are others who are more likely to survive if they instead get the ventilators. Happening in Michigan right now.
They are already saying, like Italy, that if you’re too old or too infirm, you won’t get the ventilator. We’ll keep you comfortable if we can but you’re not getting intubated and put on a vent.
That’s a very weird sort of pro-life.

Last edited by Kelly Gruene; 03-30-2020 at 03:23 AM.
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Old 03-30-2020, 05:00 PM
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Exactly. We are three to four weeks away from the sh!t. People assume itís bad now. Itís not...
Friendly reminder to all that the the US and South Korea reported their first cases of coronavirus to the WHO within a day of each other. Not discounting the differences between the countries, but it's crazy to think where we could be right now if the right people had taken this more seriously...
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Old 03-30-2020, 09:01 PM
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Friendly reminder to all that the the US and South Korea reported their first cases of corona virus to the WHO within a day of each other. Not discounting the differences between the countries, but it's crazy to think where we could be right now if the right people had taken this more seriously...
There are a few factors that helped South Korea.

1) Their earlier experience with MERS which helped create the national mindset for preparedness

2) The fact that the first outbreak hit followers of a mega church so that A) there was an large number of early cases which got people's attention and B) it was somewhat easier to identify and test those initial folks

3) It also helped their fatality results in that most early cases involved younger, non-smoking women. Probably the lowest risk demographic.

4) Government was willing to use "Big Brother" technology to identify where infected people went and who they might have interacted with by using cell phone location info and credit card records.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...et-its-success
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