Final 2021 recruiting ranking?

[coltssb]

I would say DT has been our biggest weakness. You have two studs there and you are a legit contender. Even one can do wonders in college and pros. The problem is, that position is always loaded and the guys there in the past haven’t always been the brightest. No knock on prior guys, has always been the stereotypical assessment of that position. Anyways, look at the guys at the position and then look at championships.
Suh(although, not highly rated in highschool, was a monster in college), Dareus, Dorsey, Fairley, Cody, and Wolfork all won NC’s. The list goes on. When BK had Nix he had a National title defense. I know different systems and all but it really doesn’t matter. Get a man child at that position and watch the defense get that much better. The Bonner and Schoenkes of the world are going to cut it starting for ND if they have aspirations of ever winning another title. They need that Bryant Young and Zorich again!

[golson5]

Originally Posted by ndomer4

Never said we had the biggest staff and do you have proof we don’t use our recruiting budget? Or are you assuming that because of the stories of Kelly going cold after a recruit commits?

Yes... it does. Sure, lots of kids want a southern school with nice weather and slutty girls. However, the parents need to sign on the dotted line and they know the chances of having a career in the NFL are very slim. An ND degree is a golden ticket, if you don’t think that sells you’re out to lunch.

True again, but there are more than enough kids that qualify for us to compete for championships.

Go point out where I said Weis was better? Kelly’s classes are better as they are more rounded and lacked holes. I’m just pointing out the fact he’s ignored top end talent and has been lazy. Don’t believe me? There are stories out there from recruits themselves.

The proof is Alabamas staff is more than double ours.
The proof is the Alabamas and Clemson's of the world have private planes for their assistant coaches while our assistants are flying coach from an airline. They get to more players and are able to evaluate more players than we are due to this. The proof is they pay their assistant coaches more than we do. The proof is we have great facilities but in every ranking of facilities we come in around 10 or so while the football factories have the best stuff to offer.

We may have the most money but we sure as hell don't use it like other schools. They go all out using their wealth while we do not. You are way off.


The parents have an influence but they aren't going to refuse to sign papers. Ive heard of that happen maybe twice in over 20 years of following recruiting. The kid has the final decision. The kid chooses where he wants to go. And if a kid is forced to sign, how long do you think he will stay? He can transfer when he wants, the parent has no say.

[jbrown_9999]

Originally Posted by golson5

The proof is Alabamas staff is more than double ours.
The proof is the Alabamas and Clemson's of the world have private planes for their assistant coaches while our assistants are flying coach from an airline. They get to more players and are able to evaluate more players than we are due to this. The proof is they pay their assistant coaches more than we do. The proof is we have great facilities but in every ranking of facilities we come in around 10 or so while the football factories have the best stuff to offer.

We may have the most money but we sure as hell don't use it like other schools. They go all out using their wealth while we do not. You are way off.


The parents have an influence but they aren't going to refuse to sign papers. Ive heard of that happen maybe twice in over 20 years of following recruiting. The kid has the final decision. The kid chooses where he wants to go. And if a kid is forced to sign, how long do you think he will stay? He can transfer when he wants, the parent has no say.

Given that coaches cannot travel, then ND should be able to compete head to head with the other top schools since not having a second private jet (Kelly flies private when he travels) is a non-issue.

Is Kelly skipping dinner with the family and working until past 1 a.m. every night texting West Coast recruits? Or is he calling it a day at 6 p.m.?

[ndomer4]

Originally Posted by golson5

The proof is Alabamas staff is more than double ours.
The proof is the Alabamas and Clemson's of the world have private planes for their assistant coaches while our assistants are flying coach from an airline. They get to more players and are able to evaluate more players than we are due to this. The proof is they pay their assistant coaches more than we do. The proof is we have great facilities but in every ranking of facilities we come in around 10 or so while the football factories have the best stuff to offer.

We may have the most money but we sure as hell don't use it like other schools. They go all out using their wealth while we do not. You are way off.


The parents have an influence but they aren't going to refuse to sign papers. Ive heard of that happen maybe twice in over 20 years of following recruiting. The kid has the final decision. The kid chooses where he wants to go. And if a kid is forced to sign, how long do you think he will stay? He can transfer when he wants, the parent has no say.

That’s the thing, it’s not just Clemson and Bama beating ND in recruiting every year. Like I said, Kelly has been called out by recruits for going cold and others have said he has not targeted assistant who recruit well. Can you provide evidence for knowing how much ND spends in comparison to other schools? You can’t make all these claims if you can’t back them up. Where are all these top ten lists? Who’s making them? How do yo know how every teams coaches travel? where are you getting all this info? I’m curious but you also need evidence for such claims.

Sure, the kid has the final decision but what kid isn’t going to listen to their parents? That’s a naive way to think. When I signed my LOI out of high school, my dads opinion had a major influence over my decision. Kids generally respect their parents opinions more than anyone’s. Sure, they aren’t forcing their kids to sign. However, I would not be shocked if the majority of the ND players were persuaded by their parents to sign here due to the 40 year decision. The average career is 3 years, and that’s for those who make it. Let alone all the media coverage devoted to concussions and CTE. ND is still attractive to lots of kids, you’re blind if you can’t see that.

[tneun89]

ND can finish Top 10 if it signs 22+ recruits. You can argue all you want about quality vs quantity, but it's just a fact that in order to be ranked in the Top 10, you have to get at least 22-23 recruits in a class.

In the last 5 years, the average class size for teams that finished in the Top 10 is 24.7 recruits. Only 3 teams in the last 5 years have finished in the Top 10 with 20 recruits or less: Texas (2020), USC (2018 ), and Clemson (2018 ). That's 3 teams out of 50 that had 20 recruits or less, or 6%. The lowest average of that 5-year period was 2018, when the average Top 10 class had 23.2 recruits (and that was skewed with USC and Clemson signing less than 20). Again, argue all you want about failing to get enough recruits, but ND tends to have smaller class sizes because they redshirt a lot of guys who stay to get their degree (meaning they don't transfer out and open up spots). Another factor is that ND doesn't lose a ton of players to the NFL after 3 years like many of the elite recruiting schools. ND was limited last year and probably couldn't have signed more than 19-20 guys. This year, the number is between 20-22, so if ND is on the higher end (22 recruits), then they absolutely have a chance to finish inside the Top 10.

According to the 247 Composite, the average class rating for the #10 team over the last 5 years is 266.19. The average class rating for the #9 team over the last 5 years is 271.44.

2021 Class

QB: Tyler Buchner (5-star)
RB: Logan Diggs (3-star)
WR: Lorenzo Styles (4-star), Dont'e Thornton (4-star), Jayden Thomas (4-star), Christian Lewis (3-star)
TE: Cane Berrong (4-star)
OT: Blake Fisher (4-star), Tristian Bounds (3-star)
OG: Rocco Spindler (4-star), Pat Coogan (3-star)
DE: David Abiara (4-star), Jason Onye (3-star)
DT: Gabriel Rubio (4-star)
LB: Prince Kollie (4-star)
CB: Philip Riley (4-star), Ryan Barnes (3-star)
S: Justin Walters (3-star), Jaden Slocum (3-star), Kaleb Edwards (3-star)
ATH: Titus Mokiao-Atimalala (4-star), Prophet Brown (4-star)

That's a 22-man class that would be rated 271.23, which would put ND right at #9/#10 class in the country.

IMO, this is a very realistic class with how the board looks right now, with only Dont'e Thornton being a real stretch. You could insert Deion Colzie instead and you'd get almost the exact same rating. The RB in there is just a guess, but it could really be any 3-star RB because ND is not going to land Donovan Edwards or LJ Johnson. I have ND missing on elite targets like Nolan Rucci (5-star OT), Deion Colzie (Top 50 WR), Thomas Fidone (Top 100 TE), and Ceyair Wright (Top 100 CB). They could easily land one of those guys, and that would add about 12-15 points to the class rating, which would bump ND up closer to #7/#8. I think ND is in better shape for Rucci than people realize - not saying ND leads or he will end up in the class, but ND is in it. Same for Deion Colzie. It's rare for guys to decommit and come back (although Tuitt, Lynch, and Lenzy all come to mind immediately), but his family really wants him at ND (his mom retweets ND stuff all the time, including just a few days ago) and he called ND his dream school. If he holds off and doesn't commit anytime soon, ND has a real shot.

Also, food for thought, can anyone guess the ranking of Clemson's four recruiting classes leading up to their National Title in 2016? They finished: #20, #15, #16, and #9. That's right - only one class in the Top 10 and it was #9. The difference: a Heisman-caliber QB, elite skill position talent, and a great coaching staff. ND is about to sign a 5-star QB in Tyler Buchner. They signed a 5-star TE, Top 50 WR, and Top 75 RB last cycle. ND is getting there talent-wise. ND has an elite defensive coordinator, although offensive coordinator is TBD. And BK is regarded as a Top 10 coach by pretty much everyone except a vocal segment of ND fans. Look at any college football writer's list of top head coaches, and BK will be near the top (for example, Stewart Mandel lists him at #6 and Bruce Feldman lists him at #8 ).

This is not to say that everything in recruiting is going great. ND is not an elite recruiting school. They cannot keep missing on guys like Will Shipley this year, or Jalen McMillan and AJ Henning last year. ND needs to get more elite talent at the offensive skill positions (building on last year), and they need to do better in the secondary because of how the game is trending towards pass-heavy. But things are trending in the right direction with how last cycle went and how this class is shaping up.

Also, not sure why it matters that ND is ranked lower than Iowa and Minnesota right now. It's May 21st - there are 8 months until NSD. Do you really think those schools will finish ahead of ND? ND is ranked above Alabama and Georgia right now - does ND get points for that? No, of course not. Those two schools will finish above ND. Class ranking means absolutely nothing right now.

[jbrown_9999]

tneun89,

I appreciate your analysis.

Some thoughts,

1) it almost a given that Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, and Olahoma will all leapfrog Notre Dame for 2021 recruiting. So while schools above ND will drop when the number of recruits for each school starts to equalize more, other schools will rise. Hopefully Brian Kelly will be able to recruit a Top 10 class but his own history suggests otherwise. Given the lesser amount of talent (based on combination of quantity/quality) from the 2019 (#16) and 2020 (#17) classes, Kelly needs a very strong 2021 class if he dreams of a NC before he retires.

2) What did Clemson have prior to winning Dabo's first NC? A head coach who had started to learn how to be an effective head coach having only been a WR coach previously. Hard to argue that Brian Kelly will develop further as a head coach. It's been 30 years. What Kelly is, he is at this point. I do not see him putting in any extra effort given that he so close to retirement.

In my mind, Brian Kelly is a Top 20 coach who gets Top 20 results. Kelly has not beaten an end of season Top 10 team since recruits were in 3rd or 4th grade. For many big games, his teams have appeared to be so totally unprepared that they are destroyed.

Yes, Dabo overcame "Clemsoning" but again, Dabo, was learning on the job how to be a head coach. He did not have 30 years of head coaching experience.

3) I also think that besides recruiting some top-rated talent, Clemson did an excellent job finding three star talent who were either extremely underrated or did an excellent job developing that three star talent to get five star results from them.

I do not think that we have seen quite the same results from Kelly & Co.

4) I think one thing that has hurt Kelly from a recruiting perspective (besides not putting in the same amount of effort as Top 10 recruiters) is that he is basically self-tought as a recruiter, having never been an assistant at a school bigger than Division II GVSU. As a result, he came to ND with a Div II / MAC mentality for recruiting.

[golson5]

Originally Posted by ndomer4

That’s the thing, it’s not just Clemson and Bama beating ND in recruiting every year. Like I said, Kelly has been called out by recruits for going cold and others have said he has not targeted assistant who recruit well. Can you provide evidence for knowing how much ND spends in comparison to other schools? You can’t make all these claims if you can’t back them up. Where are all these top ten lists? Who’s making them? How do yo know how every teams coaches travel? where are you getting all this info? I’m curious but you also need evidence for such claims.

Sure, the kid has the final decision but what kid isn’t going to listen to their parents? That’s a naive way to think. When I signed my LOI out of high school, my dads opinion had a major influence over my decision. Kids generally respect their parents opinions more than anyone’s. Sure, they aren’t forcing their kids to sign. However, I would not be shocked if the majority of the ND players were persuaded by their parents to sign here due to the 40 year decision. The average career is 3 years, and that’s for those who make it. Let alone all the media coverage devoted to concussions and CTE. ND is still attractive to lots of kids, you’re blind if you can’t see that.

How do I know this? Following recruiting a d having the ability to read.

But what kid isnt going to listen to his parents.....LOL. I laughed my a** off reading that

[tneun89]

Originally Posted by jbrown_9999

tneun89,

I appreciate your analysis.

Some thoughts,

1) it almost a given that Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, and Olahoma will all leapfrog Notre Dame for 2021 recruiting. So while schools above ND will drop when the number of recruits for each school starts to equalize more, other schools will rise. Hopefully Brian Kelly will be able to recruit a Top 10 class but his own history suggests otherwise. Given the lesser amount of talent (based on combination of quantity/quality) from the 2019 (#16) and 2020 (#17) classes, Kelly needs a very strong 2021 class if he dreams of a NC before he retires.

2) What did Clemson have prior to winning Dabo's first NC? A head coach who had started to learn how to be an effective head coach having only been a WR coach previously. Hard to argue that Brian Kelly will develop further as a head coach. It's been 30 years. What Kelly is, he is at this point. I do not see him putting in any extra effort given that he so close to retirement.

In my mind, Brian Kelly is a Top 20 coach who gets Top 20 results. Kelly has not beaten an end of season Top 10 team since recruits were in 3rd or 4th grade. For many big games, his teams have appeared to be so totally unprepared that they are destroyed.

Yes, Dabo overcame "Clemsoning" but again, Dabo, was learning on the job how to be a head coach. He did not have 30 years of head coaching experience.

3) I also think that besides recruiting some top-rated talent, Clemson did an excellent job finding three star talent who were either extremely underrated or did an excellent job developing that three star talent to get five star results from them.

I do not think that we have seen quite the same results from Kelly & Co.

4) I think one thing that has hurt Kelly from a recruiting perspective (besides not putting in the same amount of effort as Top 10 recruiters) is that he is basically self-tought as a recruiter, having never been an assistant at a school bigger than Division II GVSU. As a result, he came to ND with a Div II / MAC mentality for recruiting.

I agree with a lot of this. I never really thought about Dabo like that - learning to be a HC through the years, which is why Clemsoning was a thing, so that's a great point. BK is what he is at this point. If you gave me a nickel for every time he answered a question with the phrase "I've been doing this for 30 years..." I would be very wealthy.

After 10 years, I still don't know what to make of him as a recruiter. He is not a "dog on the trail" like Urban, Kirby Smart, Saban, Dabo, etc. But he has shown that he can bring in elite classes (2011, 2013). I think some of the issues in past years (arrests, dismissals, transfers, etc.) caused him to be much more focused on "fit" these last 3-4 years, for better or worse. He no longer goes after big fish who might struggle to adapt to ND (Louis Nix, Aaron Lynch, Greg Bryant, etc.). Obviously, he's had success focusing his efforts on guys who translate to ND based on the last 3 seasons, but there are only so many Kyle Hamiltons out there - he is not getting enough elite talent, which is why ND is not beating elite teams.

I do disagree with the 3-star thing. I think ND has actually done a fairly good job of developing talent. Some guys that come to mind: Mathias Farley, Nick Martin, Romeo Okwara, CJ Procise, Julian Love, Jalen Elliot, Ade Ogundeji, JOK, Drew White, etc. Those were/are some pretty good players. Obviously there have been a good amount of misses, but that's the case at every school.

I think Clemson became elite because they got Deshaun Watson, some elite skill position talent, an elite DL, and great coaching. Dabo - even though I think he is an absolute goober - is a great coach. Brent Venables is the best DC in the country.

I think ND is getting some of that - a lot rides on Buchner at QB, but ND has added some elite talent at the skill positions the last 2 cycles and the DL has been the strength of the team for 2-3 seasons. Lea is an elite DC. We'll see about Rees - I am more hopeful than others, but who knows. I do like the hire for 2020 because Ian Book and TR get along really well, so I'm hoping Book elevates his game and can be a Top 5-Top 7 QB in college football, even with his physical limitations.

[ndomer4]

Originally Posted by golson5

How do I know this? Following recruiting a d having the ability to read.

But what kid isnt going to listen to his parents.....LOL. I laughed my a** off reading that

Yeah but not everyone is reading that stuff. Regardless, you need to back up your claims.

Thanks for making my point.

[jbrown_9999]

Another area where ND has suffered is in QB recruiting.

For 5 of his 11 seasons, Kelly's starting QB has been either Tommy Rees or Ian Book.

Perhaps, in his 12th recruiting class, Kelly has recruited a potential first round draft pick in Tyler Buchner but Tyler has not even played his senior year of high school yet.

Why a head coach, whose value proposition when he came to ND was heavily rooted in his expertise of the passing game, has struggled to identify QB talent when recruiting is something that I do not understand.

[golson5]

Originally Posted by ndomer4

Yeah but not everyone is reading that stuff. Regardless, you need to back up your claims.

Thanks for making my point.

I'll do the research to find my information right after you back up your claims that we likely have the highest recruiting budget in CFB.

I'll wait

[irishwavend]

Originally Posted by golson5

I'll do the research to find my information right after you back up your claims that we likely have the highest recruiting budget in CFB.

I'll wait

Yeah, until we discuss bagmen, there’s no way we can quantify that number.

[ndomer4]

Originally Posted by golson5

I'll do the research to find my information right after you back up your claims that we likely have the highest recruiting budget in CFB.

I'll wait

Ok would you have preferred if I said we likely have “one of” the highest? Notre Dame recruits more nationally than probably any other program. We travel more than anyone and the program is drowning in money. I think it’s safe to surmise ND has a big budget.

[golson5]

Originally Posted by ndomer4

Ok would you have preferred if I said we likely have “one of” the highest? Notre Dame recruits more nationally than probably any other program. We travel more than anyone and the program is drowning in money. I think it’s safe to surmise ND has a big budget.

I agree we have a ton of cash. The problem is our administration isnt selling out and using it to help us win at all costs. Id say we use about where we have been ranked the last few years or so. Somewhere between the 8th and 15th highest recruiting budget.

That is an educated guess based on the recruiting staff we employ, the facilities we have, our assistants salary etc.

But the problem and the fact is we should be number 1 but we're not. We should double our recruiting staff first off. We should have a personal jet so the assistants can use it. We should be constantly upgrading and adding on to the Gug, weight room, training table etc. We shouldnt always be slow to act. Be proactive. Use our budget and clout.

[ndomer4]

Originally Posted by golson5

I agree we have a ton of cash. The problem is our administration isnt selling out and using it to help us win at all costs. Id say we use about where we have been ranked the last few years or so. Somewhere between the 8th and 15th highest recruiting budget.

That is an educated guess based on the recruiting staff we employ, the facilities we have, our assistants salary etc.

But the problem and the fact is we should be number 1 but we're not. We should double our recruiting staff first off. We should have a personal jet so the assistants can use it. We should be constantly upgrading and adding on to the Gug, weight room, training table etc. We shouldnt always be slow to act. Be proactive. Use our budget and clout.

That I can agree with. So Clemson is spending more on their staff, travel, and facilities? I’m not sure how much their program makes in comparison to ND, but I am assuming it is similar. I saw an ESPN piece on their new facilities and I can’t imagine a kid not wanting to go there. Dabo and Clemson will be here for a very long time unfortunately.